Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Crystal Palace
20th on points, with 7. 20th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 13.78 xG for, 21.87 against, goal difference -14.
- Season xGD
- -8.09
- GF minus xG
- -3.78
- Last 10 xGD
- -8.09
- xG per match
- 1.38
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 2.19
- xGD / match
- -0.81
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 2.19
- xGD / match
- -0.81
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.43
- xG against / match
- 2.29
- xGD / match
- -0.86
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.00 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.33. Away attack 0.93 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.23.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Coventry City v Crystal Palace, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 42.6% (31/23), draw 24.5% (34/11), away 32.9% (49/24). Expected home goals 1.58, expected away goals 1.36. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Coventry City v Crystal Palace
Home side
Coventry City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.06
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.55
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.08
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Coventry City’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Everton1–3xG 1.21 for · 1.43 against
31 Oct · Home
Sunderland3–1xG 0.69 for · 1.82 against
24 Oct · Home
Fulham0–1xG 0.51 for · 0.55 against
19 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.86 against
12 Oct · Home
xG 1.47 for · 1.84 against
Away side
Crystal Palace
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.21
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.86
- Venue attack rating
- 0.93
- Venue defence rating
- 1.23
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crystal Palace’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Liverpool1–3xG 2.60 for · 2.65 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.14 for · 3.47 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.59 for · 0.95 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 2.00 against
11 Oct · Home
xG 2.41 for · 3.34 against
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Coventry City expected goals 1.58, Crystal Palace 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Coventry City goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Coventry City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 42.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 32.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Crystal Palace’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Liverpool1–3xG 2.60 for · 2.65 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.14 for · 3.47 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.59 for · 0.95 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 2.00 against
11 Oct · Home
xG 2.41 for · 3.34 against
20 Sept · Away
Leeds United0–0xG 1.06 for · 1.31 against
12 Sept · Home
Ipswich Town2–3xG 0.62 for · 1.68 against
5 Sept · Away
Fulham3–2xG 1.97 for · 3.14 against
28 Aug · Home
xG 0.66 for · 2.21 against
22 Aug · Away
Everton0–2xG 1.96 for · 1.12 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | H | Liverpool | 1-3 | 2.60 | 2.65 | -1.60 |
| 31 Oct | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 0-2 | 0.14 | 3.47 | -0.14 |
| 25 Oct | H | Newcastle United | 0-2 | 1.59 | 0.95 | -1.59 |
| 18 Oct | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-5 | 0.77 | 2.00 | -0.77 |
| 11 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 3-1 | 2.41 | 3.34 | +0.59 |
| 20 Sept | A | Leeds United | 0-0 | 1.06 | 1.31 | -1.06 |
| 12 Sept | H | Ipswich Town | 2-3 | 0.62 | 1.68 | +1.38 |
| 5 Sept | A | Fulham | 3-2 | 1.97 | 3.14 | +1.03 |
| 28 Aug | H | Manchester City | 1-4 | 0.66 | 2.21 | +0.34 |
| 22 Aug | A | Everton | 0-2 | 1.96 | 1.12 | -1.96 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Coventry City v Crystal Palace
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
42.6%
31/23 (2.35)
Draw
24.5%
34/11 (4.09)
Away
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
The model: Coventry City v Crystal Palace
The model
What the expected goals say
Coventry City expected goals 1.58, Crystal Palace 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Coventry City goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Coventry City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 42.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 32.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Home
Crystal Palace v Hull City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.43
Home
36.8%
12/7 (2.72)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.98)
Away
38.0%
31/19 (2.63)
The model: Crystal Palace v Hull City
The model
What the expected goals say
Crystal Palace expected goals 1.40, Hull City 1.43: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crystal Palace goals down, Hull City goals across.
| Crystal Palace goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 36.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Hull City win, per cent
- 38.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
56.1%
18/23 (1.78)
Draw
21.5%
62/17 (4.65)
Away
22.3%
66/19 (4.47)
The model: Chelsea v Crystal Palace
The model
What the expected goals say
Chelsea expected goals 2.00, Crystal Palace 1.19: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chelsea goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Chelsea goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 56.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.5%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 22.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.9%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.40
Home
43.6%
22/17 (2.29)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
32.6%
29/14 (3.07)
The model: Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.66, Crystal Palace 1.40: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 43.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 32.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 19:00 · Home
Crystal Palace v Manchester United
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.73
Home
35.8%
9/5 (2.80)
Draw
22.9%
27/8 (4.37)
Away
41.4%
17/12 (2.42)
The model: Crystal Palace v Manchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Crystal Palace expected goals 1.60, Manchester United 1.73: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crystal Palace goals down, Manchester United goals across.
| Crystal Palace goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.9 | 8.6 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 35.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 41.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
