Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Newcastle United
12th on points, with 12. 17th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 11.54 xG for, 16.72 against, goal difference -3.
- Season xGD
- -5.18
- GF minus xG
- +1.46
- Last 10 xGD
- -5.18
- xG per match
- 1.15
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.15
- xG against / match
- 1.67
- xGD / match
- -0.52
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.15
- xG against / match
- 1.67
- xGD / match
- -0.52
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.28
- xG against / match
- 1.54
- xGD / match
- -0.27
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.87 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.25. Away attack 0.90 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.93.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Newcastle United v Arsenal, Sat 21 Nov, 17:30. The model’s fair prices are home 25.5% (35/12), draw 24.2% (22/7), away 50.3% (1/1). Expected home goals 1.13, expected away goals 1.68. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Newcastle United v Arsenal
Home side
Newcastle United
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.20
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.97
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.27
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.25
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newcastle United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Fulham1–1xG 1.14 for · 0.70 against
2 Nov · Home
Everton0–1xG 1.29 for · 2.34 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 0.95 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
Aston Villa0–1xG 0.99 for · 1.57 against
12 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 1.47 against
Away side
Arsenal
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.33
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.08
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.74
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Arsenal’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.26 for · 0.36 against
1 Nov · Away
Liverpool1–0xG 0.98 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Home
Everton2–0xG 1.96 for · 0.63 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 1.14 for · 0.90 against
10 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–1xG 2.33 for · 0.62 against
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.13, Arsenal 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 50.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Newcastle United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Fulham1–1xG 1.14 for · 0.70 against
2 Nov · Home
Everton0–1xG 1.29 for · 2.34 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 0.95 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
Aston Villa0–1xG 0.99 for · 1.57 against
12 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 1.47 against
19 Sept · Home
Hull City2–1xG 1.44 for · 1.59 against
14 Sept · Away
Leeds United1–4xG 0.88 for · 1.99 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 0.71 for · 1.37 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.72 for · 1.12 against
23 Aug · Home
Liverpool2–2xG 1.58 for · 2.98 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Fulham | 1-1 | 1.14 | 0.70 | -0.14 |
| 2 Nov | H | Everton | 0-1 | 1.29 | 2.34 | -1.29 |
| 25 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 0.95 | 1.59 | +1.05 |
| 17 Oct | H | Aston Villa | 0-1 | 0.99 | 1.57 | -0.99 |
| 12 Oct | A | Coventry City | 1-4 | 1.84 | 1.47 | -0.84 |
| 19 Sept | H | Hull City | 2-1 | 1.44 | 1.59 | +0.56 |
| 14 Sept | A | Leeds United | 1-4 | 0.88 | 1.99 | +0.12 |
| 5 Sept | H | AFC Bournemouth | 2-2 | 0.71 | 1.37 | +1.29 |
| 29 Aug | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 2-0 | 0.72 | 1.12 | +1.28 |
| 23 Aug | H | Liverpool | 2-2 | 1.58 | 2.98 | +0.42 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 · Home
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68
Home
25.5%
35/12 (3.92)
Draw
24.2%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
The model: Newcastle United v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.13, Arsenal 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 50.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Away
Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United
Expected home goals 1.83 · expected away goals 1.12
Home
54.0%
17/20 (1.85)
Draw
22.9%
37/11 (4.37)
Away
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
The model: Brighton & Hove Albion v Newcastle United
The model
What the expected goals say
Brighton & Hove Albion expected goals 1.83, Newcastle United 1.12: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brighton & Hove Albion goals down, Newcastle United goals across.
| Brighton & Hove Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 54.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 23.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 2 Dec, 20:15 · Home
Newcastle United v Manchester United
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.63
Home
32.7%
35/17 (3.06)
Draw
24.0%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
43.3%
21/16 (2.31)
The model: Newcastle United v Manchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.39, Manchester United 1.63: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Manchester United goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 32.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 43.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 6 Dec, 14:00 · Home
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 1.84
Home
34.9%
43/23 (2.87)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
42.9%
4/3 (2.33)
The model: Newcastle United v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.65, Sunderland 1.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 34.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 42.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Ipswich Town v Newcastle United
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
34.3%
23/12 (2.92)
Draw
26.9%
49/18 (3.72)
Away
38.9%
11/7 (2.57)
The model: Ipswich Town v Newcastle United
The model
What the expected goals say
Ipswich Town expected goals 1.21, Newcastle United 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Ipswich Town goals down, Newcastle United goals across.
| Ipswich Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 34.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.9%
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 38.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
