Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Arsenal
1st on points, with 27. 1st on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 16.15 xG for, 7.59 against, goal difference +10.
- Season xGD
- +8.56
- GF minus xG
- -1.15
- Last 10 xGD
- +8.56
- xG per match
- 1.62
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.62
- xG against / match
- 0.76
- xGD / match
- +0.86
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.62
- xG against / match
- 0.76
- xGD / match
- +0.86
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.55
- xG against / match
- 0.81
- xGD / match
- +0.74
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.12 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.62. Away attack 0.99 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.83.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Newcastle United v Arsenal, Sat 21 Nov, 17:30. The model’s fair prices are home 25.5% (35/12), draw 24.2% (22/7), away 50.3% (1/1). Expected home goals 1.13, expected away goals 1.68. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Newcastle United v Arsenal
Home side
Newcastle United
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.20
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.97
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.27
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.25
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newcastle United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Fulham1–1xG 1.14 for · 0.70 against
2 Nov · Home
Everton0–1xG 1.29 for · 2.34 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 0.95 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
Aston Villa0–1xG 0.99 for · 1.57 against
12 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 1.47 against
Away side
Arsenal
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.33
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.08
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.74
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Arsenal’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.26 for · 0.36 against
1 Nov · Away
Liverpool1–0xG 0.98 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Home
Everton2–0xG 1.96 for · 0.63 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 1.14 for · 0.90 against
10 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–1xG 2.33 for · 0.62 against
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.13, Arsenal 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 50.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Arsenal’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.26 for · 0.36 against
1 Nov · Away
Liverpool1–0xG 0.98 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Home
Everton2–0xG 1.96 for · 0.63 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 1.14 for · 0.90 against
10 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–1xG 2.33 for · 0.62 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.63 for · 1.31 against
12 Sept · Away
Sunderland2–0xG 1.88 for · 1.80 against
6 Sept · Home
Chelsea2–1xG 2.05 for · 0.39 against
31 Aug · Away
Aston Villa1–0xG 1.04 for · 0.33 against
21 Aug · Home
xG 1.88 for · 0.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Hull City | 1-0 | 1.26 | 0.36 | -0.26 |
| 1 Nov | A | Liverpool | 1-0 | 0.98 | 1.05 | +0.02 |
| 24 Oct | H | Everton | 2-0 | 1.96 | 0.63 | +0.04 |
| 18 Oct | A | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | 1.14 | 0.90 | -0.14 |
| 10 Oct | H | Leeds United | 2-1 | 2.33 | 0.62 | -0.33 |
| 19 Sept | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-3 | 1.63 | 1.31 | -1.63 |
| 12 Sept | A | Sunderland | 2-0 | 1.88 | 1.80 | +0.12 |
| 6 Sept | H | Chelsea | 2-1 | 2.05 | 0.39 | -0.05 |
| 31 Aug | A | Aston Villa | 1-0 | 1.04 | 0.33 | -0.04 |
| 21 Aug | H | Coventry City | 3-0 | 1.88 | 0.20 | +1.12 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 17:30 · Away
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68
Home
25.5%
35/12 (3.92)
Draw
24.2%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
The model: Newcastle United v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.13, Arsenal 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 50.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 16:30 · Home
Arsenal v Manchester City
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 0.93
Home
45.4%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
28.2%
28/11 (3.55)
Away
26.4%
39/14 (3.78)
The model: Arsenal v Manchester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Arsenal expected goals 1.31, Manchester City 0.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Arsenal goals down, Manchester City goals across.
| Arsenal goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 45.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.2%
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 26.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 10.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 38.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.5%
24/17 (2.41)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
32.4%
25/12 (3.08)
The model: Brentford v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.41, Arsenal 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 41.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 32.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 6 Dec, 16:30 · Away
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.04
Home
42.0%
29/21 (2.38)
Draw
27.9%
49/19 (3.58)
Away
30.0%
7/3 (3.33)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.28, Arsenal 1.04: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 42.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.9%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 30.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 40.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 14:00 · Home
Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
53.0%
8/9 (1.89)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
The model: Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Arsenal expected goals 1.58, AFC Bournemouth 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Arsenal goals down, AFC Bournemouth goals across.
| Arsenal goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 53.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 21.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
