Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Hull City
13th on points, with 11. 16th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 9.47 xG for, 14.52 against, goal difference +0.
- Season xGD
- -5.05
- GF minus xG
- +1.53
- Last 10 xGD
- -5.05
- xG per match
- 0.95
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.95
- xG against / match
- 1.45
- xGD / match
- -0.51
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.95
- xG against / match
- 1.45
- xGD / match
- -0.51
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.97
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- -0.46
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.12. Away attack 0.79 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.89.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion, Sun 22 Nov, 14:00. The model’s fair prices are home 29.5% (55/23), draw 24.1% (41/13), away 46.4% (15/13). Expected home goals 1.28, expected away goals 1.66. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Home side
Hull City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.05
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.65
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.46
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Hull City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Arsenal0–1xG 0.36 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Ipswich Town2–2xG 0.78 for · 1.06 against
25 Oct · Home
Brentford1–1xG 1.57 for · 1.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Fulham0–1xG 0.16 for · 1.38 against
11 Oct · Home
Everton2–2xG 1.33 for · 1.68 against
Away side
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.59
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.56
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.43
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Brighton & Hove Albion’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Brentford2–0xG 2.11 for · 0.59 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.64 against
25 Oct · Away
Liverpool0–2xG 1.32 for · 1.20 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 2.00 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
Sunderland2–0xG 1.41 for · 0.72 against
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.66.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.28, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.66: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Brighton & Hove Albion goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 29.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 46.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Hull City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Arsenal0–1xG 0.36 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Ipswich Town2–2xG 0.78 for · 1.06 against
25 Oct · Home
Brentford1–1xG 1.57 for · 1.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Fulham0–1xG 0.16 for · 1.38 against
11 Oct · Home
Everton2–2xG 1.33 for · 1.68 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.59 for · 1.44 against
12 Sept · Away
Chelsea2–2xG 1.38 for · 0.91 against
5 Sept · Home
Aston Villa0–0xG 0.57 for · 1.93 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.72 for · 1.29 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.01 for · 1.83 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Arsenal | 0-1 | 0.36 | 1.26 | -0.36 |
| 31 Oct | H | Ipswich Town | 2-2 | 0.78 | 1.06 | +1.22 |
| 25 Oct | H | Brentford | 1-1 | 1.57 | 1.74 | -0.57 |
| 17 Oct | A | Fulham | 0-1 | 0.16 | 1.38 | -0.16 |
| 11 Oct | H | Everton | 2-2 | 1.33 | 1.68 | +0.67 |
| 19 Sept | A | Newcastle United | 1-2 | 1.59 | 1.44 | -0.59 |
| 12 Sept | A | Chelsea | 2-2 | 1.38 | 0.91 | +0.62 |
| 5 Sept | H | Aston Villa | 0-0 | 0.57 | 1.93 | -0.57 |
| 29 Aug | A | Coventry City | 1-0 | 0.72 | 1.29 | +0.28 |
| 22 Aug | H | Manchester United | 2-0 | 1.01 | 1.83 | +0.99 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 14:00 · Home
Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.66
Home
29.5%
55/23 (3.39)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
46.4%
15/13 (2.15)
The model: Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.28, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.66: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Brighton & Hove Albion goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 29.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 46.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Away
Crystal Palace v Hull City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.43
Home
36.8%
12/7 (2.72)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.98)
Away
38.0%
31/19 (2.63)
The model: Crystal Palace v Hull City
The model
What the expected goals say
Crystal Palace expected goals 1.40, Hull City 1.43: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crystal Palace goals down, Hull City goals across.
| Crystal Palace goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 36.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Hull City win, per cent
- 38.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 2 Dec, 19:30 · Home
Hull City v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.11 · expected away goals 2.05
Home
19.8%
97/24 (5.04)
Draw
21.0%
49/13 (4.77)
Away
59.2%
11/16 (1.69)
The model: Hull City v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.11, Nottingham Forest 2.05: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 19.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.0%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 59.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
AFC Bournemouth v Hull City
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
54.7%
19/23 (1.83)
Draw
24.7%
64/21 (4.05)
Away
20.6%
27/7 (4.86)
The model: AFC Bournemouth v Hull City
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.63, Hull City 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Hull City goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 54.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Hull City win, per cent
- 20.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Mon 14 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
37.6%
5/3 (2.66)
Draw
26.6%
11/4 (3.75)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
The model: Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.30, Tottenham Hotspur 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Tottenham Hotspur goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 37.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
