Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Liverpool
4th on points, with 18. 6th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 15.83 xG for, 13.18 against, goal difference +4.
- Season xGD
- +2.65
- GF minus xG
- -1.83
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.65
- xG per match
- 1.58
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.58
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- +0.26
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.58
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- +0.26
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.52
- xG against / match
- 1.31
- xGD / match
- +0.21
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.89 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.98. Away attack 1.23 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.91.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Liverpool v Manchester United, Sun 22 Nov, 16:30. The model’s fair prices are home 40.1% (3/2), draw 25.8% (23/8), away 34.1% (29/15). Expected home goals 1.41, expected away goals 1.28. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Liverpool v Manchester United
Home side
Liverpool
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.24
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Liverpool’s side.
Away side
Manchester United
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.61
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.57
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.02
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Manchester United’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Aston Villa4–4xG 3.55 for · 2.88 against
31 Oct · Away
Chelsea0–2xG 1.24 for · 3.01 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 2.15 against
18 Oct · Away
Leeds United1–1xG 0.92 for · 1.41 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.80 for · 1.62 against
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.28.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.41, Manchester United 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Manchester United goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.8%
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Liverpool’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 2.65 for · 2.60 against
1 Nov · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 1.05 for · 0.98 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.20 for · 1.32 against
17 Oct · Away
Brentford2–1xG 1.64 for · 0.88 against
11 Oct · Home
xG 0.94 for · 1.28 against
20 Sept · Away
xG 1.65 for · 0.79 against
12 Sept · Home
Fulham0–0xG 1.28 for · 0.70 against
4 Sept · Away
Ipswich Town2–0xG 0.69 for · 0.75 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.75 for · 2.30 against
23 Aug · Away
xG 2.98 for · 1.58 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | A | Crystal Palace | 3-1 | 2.65 | 2.60 | +0.35 |
| 1 Nov | H | Arsenal | 0-1 | 1.05 | 0.98 | -1.05 |
| 25 Oct | H | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2-0 | 1.20 | 1.32 | +0.80 |
| 17 Oct | A | Brentford | 2-1 | 1.64 | 0.88 | +0.36 |
| 11 Oct | H | Manchester City | 0-3 | 0.94 | 1.28 | -0.94 |
| 20 Sept | A | AFC Bournemouth | 1-0 | 1.65 | 0.79 | -0.65 |
| 12 Sept | H | Fulham | 0-0 | 1.28 | 0.70 | -1.28 |
| 4 Sept | A | Ipswich Town | 2-0 | 0.69 | 0.75 | +1.31 |
| 29 Aug | H | Nottingham Forest | 2-2 | 1.75 | 2.30 | +0.25 |
| 23 Aug | A | Newcastle United | 2-2 | 2.98 | 1.58 | -0.98 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 16:30 · Home
Liverpool v Manchester United
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
25.8%
23/8 (3.87)
Away
34.1%
29/15 (2.93)
The model: Liverpool v Manchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.41, Manchester United 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Manchester United goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.8%
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
29.1%
56/23 (3.44)
Draw
24.1%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
46.8%
25/22 (2.14)
The model: Everton v Liverpool
The model
What the expected goals say
Everton expected goals 1.27, Liverpool 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Everton goals down, Liverpool goals across.
| Everton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Everton win, per cent
- 29.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 46.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
43.1%
29/22 (2.32)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.00)
The model: Liverpool v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.67, Sunderland 1.45: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 43.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.0%
16/9 (2.78)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
The model: Chelsea v Liverpool
The model
What the expected goals say
Chelsea expected goals 1.49, Liverpool 1.58: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chelsea goals down, Liverpool goals across.
| Chelsea goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 36.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 40.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.44)
Draw
27.0%
46/17 (3.71)
Away
32.0%
49/23 (3.13)
The model: Liverpool v Leeds United
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.33, Leeds United 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 32.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
