Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Ipswich Town
14th on points, with 11. 19th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 13.52 xG for, 19.44 against, goal difference -5.
- Season xGD
- -5.92
- GF minus xG
- +1.48
- Last 10 xGD
- -5.92
- xG per match
- 1.35
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.35
- xG against / match
- 1.94
- xGD / match
- -0.59
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.35
- xG against / match
- 1.94
- xGD / match
- -0.59
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.21
- xG against / match
- 2.12
- xGD / match
- -0.91
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.83 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.07. Away attack 1.11 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.28.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 56.5% (10/13), draw 21.6% (29/8), away 21.9% (82/23). Expected home goals 1.98, expected away goals 1.16. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Home side
Tottenham Hotspur
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.54
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.80
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.60
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.77
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tottenham Hotspur’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Leeds United0–1xG 0.72 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.47 for · 0.14 against
24 Oct · Away
Chelsea2–0xG 0.74 for · 0.47 against
19 Oct · Home
xG 0.86 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.62 for · 0.80 against
Away side
Ipswich Town
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 1.28
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Ipswich Town’s side.
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.98, Ipswich Town 1.16: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.6%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 21.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Ipswich Town’s side.
8 Nov · Home
xG 1.26 for · 2.23 against
31 Oct · Away
Hull City2–2xG 1.06 for · 0.78 against
23 Oct · Home
xG 0.46 for · 2.29 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 3.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Fulham2–1xG 1.15 for · 1.81 against
19 Sept · Away
Everton0–1xG 1.44 for · 2.24 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.68 for · 0.62 against
4 Sept · Home
Liverpool0–2xG 0.75 for · 0.69 against
30 Aug · Away
xG 2.06 for · 4.77 against
22 Aug · Home
Sunderland2–1xG 1.80 for · 0.66 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | H | AFC Bournemouth | 1-2 | 1.26 | 2.23 | -0.26 |
| 31 Oct | A | Hull City | 2-2 | 1.06 | 0.78 | +0.94 |
| 23 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 1-1 | 0.46 | 2.29 | +0.54 |
| 17 Oct | A | Manchester City | 2-3 | 1.86 | 3.35 | +0.14 |
| 10 Oct | H | Fulham | 2-1 | 1.15 | 1.81 | +0.85 |
| 19 Sept | A | Everton | 0-1 | 1.44 | 2.24 | -1.44 |
| 12 Sept | A | Crystal Palace | 3-2 | 1.68 | 0.62 | +1.32 |
| 4 Sept | H | Liverpool | 0-2 | 0.75 | 0.69 | -0.75 |
| 30 Aug | A | Manchester United | 2-5 | 2.06 | 4.77 | -0.06 |
| 22 Aug | H | Sunderland | 2-1 | 1.80 | 0.66 | +0.20 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
21.6%
29/8 (4.62)
Away
21.9%
82/23 (4.57)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.98, Ipswich Town 1.16: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.6%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 21.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 · Home
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
37.0%
29/17 (2.70)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
39.3%
37/24 (2.54)
The model: Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
The model
What the expected goals say
Ipswich Town expected goals 1.54, Aston Villa 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Ipswich Town goals down, Aston Villa goals across.
| Ipswich Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 37.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 39.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 20:00 · Away
Coventry City v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 1.64 · expected away goals 1.62
Home
38.9%
11/7 (2.57)
Draw
23.2%
63/19 (4.32)
Away
38.0%
18/11 (2.63)
The model: Coventry City v Ipswich Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Coventry City expected goals 1.64, Ipswich Town 1.62: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Coventry City goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Coventry City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 38.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.2%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 38.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Leeds United v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 2.05 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
54.3%
16/19 (1.84)
Draw
21.3%
48/13 (4.69)
Away
24.4%
59/19 (4.11)
The model: Leeds United v Ipswich Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Leeds United expected goals 2.05, Ipswich Town 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leeds United goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Leeds United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 54.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.3%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 24.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.2%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Ipswich Town v Newcastle United
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
34.3%
23/12 (2.92)
Draw
26.9%
49/18 (3.72)
Away
38.9%
11/7 (2.57)
The model: Ipswich Town v Newcastle United
The model
What the expected goals say
Ipswich Town expected goals 1.21, Newcastle United 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Ipswich Town goals down, Newcastle United goals across.
| Ipswich Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.6 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 34.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.9%
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 38.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
