Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Nottingham Forest
16th on points, with 9. 5th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 15.71 xG for, 11.00 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +4.71
- GF minus xG
- -6.71
- Last 10 xGD
- +4.71
- xG per match
- 1.57
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.57
- xG against / match
- 1.10
- xGD / match
- +0.47
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.57
- xG against / match
- 1.10
- xGD / match
- +0.47
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.59
- xG against / match
- 1.15
- xGD / match
- +0.44
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.77 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.86. Away attack 1.35 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.86.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.2% (31/20), draw 23.8% (16/5), away 37.0% (17/10). Expected home goals 1.58, expected away goals 1.53. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Home side
AFC Bournemouth
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.04
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Bournemouth’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Ipswich Town2–1xG 2.23 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–0xG 1.29 for · 0.71 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 2.15 for · 1.17 against
18 Oct · Home
Sunderland2–0xG 4.23 for · 0.07 against
10 Oct · Away
Chelsea1–5xG 1.38 for · 1.10 against
Away side
Nottingham Forest
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.18
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.44
- Venue attack rating
- 1.35
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Nottingham Forest’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Away
Brentford0–2xG 0.86 for · 0.46 against
23 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.29 for · 0.46 against
18 Oct · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.14 against
11 Oct · Away
xG 3.34 for · 2.41 against
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.7 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Nottingham Forest’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Away
Brentford0–2xG 0.86 for · 0.46 against
23 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.29 for · 0.46 against
18 Oct · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.14 against
11 Oct · Away
xG 3.34 for · 2.41 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.10 for · 0.67 against
12 Sept · Away
Aston Villa2–1xG 2.28 for · 0.82 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 0.92 for · 1.06 against
29 Aug · Away
Liverpool2–2xG 2.30 for · 1.75 against
22 Aug · Home
Leeds United0–1xG 0.66 for · 0.47 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Manchester City | 3-1 | 1.06 | 1.76 | +1.94 |
| 31 Oct | A | Brentford | 0-2 | 0.86 | 0.46 | -0.86 |
| 23 Oct | A | Ipswich Town | 1-1 | 2.29 | 0.46 | -1.29 |
| 18 Oct | H | Arsenal | 0-1 | 0.90 | 1.14 | -0.90 |
| 11 Oct | A | Crystal Palace | 1-3 | 3.34 | 2.41 | -2.34 |
| 19 Sept | H | Coventry City | 0-1 | 1.10 | 0.67 | -1.10 |
| 12 Sept | A | Aston Villa | 2-1 | 2.28 | 0.82 | -0.28 |
| 5 Sept | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 0-0 | 0.92 | 1.06 | -0.92 |
| 29 Aug | A | Liverpool | 2-2 | 2.30 | 1.75 | -0.30 |
| 22 Aug | H | Leeds United | 0-1 | 0.66 | 0.47 | -0.66 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53
Home
39.2%
31/20 (2.55)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
The model: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 27 Nov, 20:00 · Home
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.06
Home
42.1%
11/8 (2.38)
Draw
27.7%
60/23 (3.61)
Away
30.2%
37/16 (3.31)
The model: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
The model
What the expected goals say
Nottingham Forest expected goals 1.30, Chelsea 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Nottingham Forest goals down, Chelsea goals across.
| Nottingham Forest goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 42.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.7%
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 30.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 41.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 2 Dec, 19:30 · Away
Hull City v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.11 · expected away goals 2.05
Home
19.8%
97/24 (5.04)
Draw
21.0%
49/13 (4.77)
Away
59.2%
11/16 (1.69)
The model: Hull City v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.11, Nottingham Forest 2.05: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 19.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.0%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 59.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 17:30 · Home
Nottingham Forest v Brighton & Hove Albion
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
34.8%
15/8 (2.87)
Draw
27.0%
27/10 (3.70)
Away
38.2%
34/21 (2.62)
The model: Nottingham Forest v Brighton & Hove Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Nottingham Forest expected goals 1.21, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Nottingham Forest goals down, Brighton & Hove Albion goals across.
| Nottingham Forest goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 34.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 38.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 14:00 · Away
Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.34 · expected away goals 1.66
Home
31.0%
20/9 (3.22)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
45.0%
11/9 (2.22)
The model: Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
Sunderland expected goals 1.34, Nottingham Forest 1.66: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sunderland goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| Sunderland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 31.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 45.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
