Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
AFC Bournemouth
7th on points, with 15. 3rd on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 18.00 xG for, 11.26 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +6.74
- GF minus xG
- -2.00
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.74
- xG per match
- 1.80
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.80
- xG against / match
- 1.13
- xGD / match
- +0.67
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.80
- xG against / match
- 1.13
- xGD / match
- +0.67
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.01
- xG against / match
- 0.99
- xGD / match
- +1.02
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.17 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.83. Away attack 1.08 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.90.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.2% (31/20), draw 23.8% (16/5), away 37.0% (17/10). Expected home goals 1.58, expected away goals 1.53. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Home side
AFC Bournemouth
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.04
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Bournemouth’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Ipswich Town2–1xG 2.23 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–0xG 1.29 for · 0.71 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 2.15 for · 1.17 against
18 Oct · Home
Sunderland2–0xG 4.23 for · 0.07 against
10 Oct · Away
Chelsea1–5xG 1.38 for · 1.10 against
Away side
Nottingham Forest
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.18
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.44
- Venue attack rating
- 1.35
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Nottingham Forest’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Away
Brentford0–2xG 0.86 for · 0.46 against
23 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.29 for · 0.46 against
18 Oct · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.14 against
11 Oct · Away
xG 3.34 for · 2.41 against
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from AFC Bournemouth’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Ipswich Town2–1xG 2.23 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–0xG 1.29 for · 0.71 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 2.15 for · 1.17 against
18 Oct · Home
Sunderland2–0xG 4.23 for · 0.07 against
10 Oct · Away
Chelsea1–5xG 1.38 for · 1.10 against
20 Sept · Home
Liverpool0–1xG 0.79 for · 1.65 against
12 Sept · Home
Brentford2–2xG 1.75 for · 0.50 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.37 for · 0.71 against
29 Aug · Home
Everton1–1xG 2.16 for · 1.84 against
23 Aug · Away
xG 0.65 for · 2.25 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | A | Ipswich Town | 2-1 | 2.23 | 1.26 | -0.23 |
| 31 Oct | H | Leeds United | 2-0 | 1.29 | 0.71 | +0.71 |
| 25 Oct | A | Manchester United | 3-0 | 2.15 | 1.17 | +0.85 |
| 18 Oct | H | Sunderland | 2-0 | 4.23 | 0.07 | -2.23 |
| 10 Oct | A | Chelsea | 1-5 | 1.38 | 1.10 | -0.38 |
| 20 Sept | H | Liverpool | 0-1 | 0.79 | 1.65 | -0.79 |
| 12 Sept | H | Brentford | 2-2 | 1.75 | 0.50 | +0.25 |
| 5 Sept | A | Newcastle United | 2-2 | 1.37 | 0.71 | +0.63 |
| 29 Aug | H | Everton | 1-1 | 2.16 | 1.84 | -1.16 |
| 23 Aug | A | Manchester City | 1-2 | 0.65 | 2.25 | +0.35 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53
Home
39.2%
31/20 (2.55)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
The model: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.5%
33/19 (2.74)
Draw
24.5%
37/12 (4.08)
Away
39.0%
36/23 (2.57)
The model: Fulham v AFC Bournemouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Fulham expected goals 1.45, AFC Bournemouth 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fulham goals down, AFC Bournemouth goals across.
| Fulham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Fulham win, per cent
- 36.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 2 Dec, 20:15 · Home
AFC Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion
Expected home goals 1.83 · expected away goals 1.24
Home
51.2%
20/21 (1.95)
Draw
22.9%
64/19 (4.37)
Away
25.9%
20/7 (3.86)
The model: AFC Bournemouth v Brighton & Hove Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.83, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Brighton & Hove Albion goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 51.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 25.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
AFC Bournemouth v Hull City
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
54.7%
19/23 (1.83)
Draw
24.7%
64/21 (4.05)
Away
20.6%
27/7 (4.86)
The model: AFC Bournemouth v Hull City
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.63, Hull City 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Hull City goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 54.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Hull City win, per cent
- 20.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 14:00 · Away
Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
53.0%
8/9 (1.89)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
The model: Arsenal v AFC Bournemouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Arsenal expected goals 1.58, AFC Bournemouth 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Arsenal goals down, AFC Bournemouth goals across.
| Arsenal goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 53.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 21.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
