Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Fulham
15th on points, with 10. 8th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 14.42 xG for, 13.90 against, goal difference -2.
- Season xGD
- +0.52
- GF minus xG
- -4.42
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.52
- xG per match
- 1.44
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.44
- xG against / match
- 1.39
- xGD / match
- +0.05
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.44
- xG against / match
- 1.39
- xGD / match
- +0.05
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 1.06
- xGD / match
- +0.32
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.02 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.03. Away attack 0.96 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.93.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Manchester City v Fulham, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 47.7% (11/10), draw 22.2% (7/2), away 30.1% (51/22). Expected home goals 1.90, expected away goals 1.47. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Manchester City v Fulham
Home side
Manchester City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.44
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.69
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.31
- Venue defence rating
- 1.14
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Manchester City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.76 for · 1.06 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.64 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Away
Aston Villa1–2xG 1.56 for · 0.61 against
17 Oct · Home
Ipswich Town3–2xG 3.35 for · 1.86 against
11 Oct · Away
Liverpool3–0xG 1.28 for · 0.94 against
Away side
Fulham
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.25
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.36
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.32
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Fulham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.70 for · 1.14 against
31 Oct · Away
Aston Villa1–1xG 2.24 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.55 for · 0.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.38 for · 0.16 against
10 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–2xG 1.81 for · 1.15 against
Expected home goals 1.90 · expected away goals 1.47.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester City expected goals 1.90, Fulham 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester City goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Manchester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 47.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 30.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Fulham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.70 for · 1.14 against
31 Oct · Away
Aston Villa1–1xG 2.24 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.55 for · 0.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.38 for · 0.16 against
10 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–2xG 1.81 for · 1.15 against
20 Sept · Home
xG 1.62 for · 1.60 against
12 Sept · Away
Liverpool0–0xG 0.70 for · 1.28 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 3.14 for · 1.97 against
30 Aug · Away
Sunderland0–1xG 0.95 for · 2.02 against
24 Aug · Home
Chelsea2–3xG 1.33 for · 2.24 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Newcastle United | 1-1 | 0.70 | 1.14 | +0.30 |
| 31 Oct | A | Aston Villa | 1-1 | 2.24 | 1.83 | -1.24 |
| 24 Oct | A | Coventry City | 1-0 | 0.55 | 0.51 | +0.45 |
| 17 Oct | H | Hull City | 1-0 | 1.38 | 0.16 | -0.38 |
| 10 Oct | A | Ipswich Town | 1-2 | 1.81 | 1.15 | -0.81 |
| 20 Sept | H | Manchester United | 1-1 | 1.62 | 1.60 | -0.62 |
| 12 Sept | A | Liverpool | 0-0 | 0.70 | 1.28 | -0.70 |
| 5 Sept | H | Crystal Palace | 2-3 | 3.14 | 1.97 | -1.14 |
| 30 Aug | A | Sunderland | 0-1 | 0.95 | 2.02 | -0.95 |
| 24 Aug | H | Chelsea | 2-3 | 1.33 | 2.24 | +0.67 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
47.7%
11/10 (2.10)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
30.1%
51/22 (3.32)
The model: Manchester City v Fulham
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester City expected goals 1.90, Fulham 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester City goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Manchester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 47.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 30.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.5%
33/19 (2.74)
Draw
24.5%
37/12 (4.08)
Away
39.0%
36/23 (2.57)
The model: Fulham v AFC Bournemouth
The model
What the expected goals say
Fulham expected goals 1.45, AFC Bournemouth 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fulham goals down, AFC Bournemouth goals across.
| Fulham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Fulham win, per cent
- 36.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Thu 3 Dec, 20:00 · Away
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham
Expected home goals 1.44 · expected away goals 1.00
Home
47.1%
9/8 (2.12)
Draw
26.6%
58/21 (3.76)
Away
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.44, Fulham 1.00: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 47.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 26.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.5%
40/23 (2.74)
Draw
26.5%
61/22 (3.77)
Away
37.0%
29/17 (2.70)
The model: Everton v Fulham
The model
What the expected goals say
Everton expected goals 1.29, Fulham 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Everton goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Everton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Everton win, per cent
- 36.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.5%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
49.2%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
27.3%
61/23 (3.66)
The model: Fulham v Brentford
The model
What the expected goals say
Fulham expected goals 1.76, Brentford 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fulham goals down, Brentford goals across.
| Fulham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Fulham win, per cent
- 49.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Brentford win, per cent
- 27.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
