2026/2027 · matchweek 14 · provider tag opta
League One xG form
The default window. Ten league matches is long enough for one wild afternoon to stop running the table, and short enough that a new manager is not still buried under August.
- 1+12.7410 played · +1.27 / match
Huddersfield Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 1
- xG for / against
- 21.40 / 8.66
- Goals for / against
- 19 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- -2.40
- Home xG for / against
- 1.90 / 1.09 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 2.38 / 0.64 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 2+12.3210 played · +1.23 / match
Stockport County: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 2
- xG for / against
- 23.73 / 11.41
- Goals for / against
- 17 / 8
- Goals minus xG
- -6.73
- Home xG for / against
- 2.10 / 1.29 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 2.65 / 0.99 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 3+6.8910 played · +0.69 / match
Leicester City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 10
- xG for / against
- 20.94 / 14.05
- Goals for / against
- 20 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- -0.94
- Home xG for / against
- 2.18 / 1.45 (6 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.96 / 1.33 (4 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 4+6.2610 played · +0.63 / match
Luton Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 4
- xG for / against
- 17.50 / 11.24
- Goals for / against
- 17 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- -0.50
- Home xG for / against
- 2.03 / 0.92 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.47 / 1.32 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 5+5.8010 played · +0.58 / match
Milton Keynes Dons: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 12
- xG for / against
- 19.46 / 13.66
- Goals for / against
- 19 / 17
- Goals minus xG
- -0.46
- Home xG for / against
- 2.11 / 1.60 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.78 / 1.13 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 6+5.7410 played · +0.57 / match
Reading: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 6
- xG for / against
- 17.20 / 11.46
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -3.20
- Home xG for / against
- 1.46 / 1.29 (4 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.90 / 1.05 (6 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 7+4.2110 played · +0.42 / match
Mansfield Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 11
- xG for / against
- 17.39 / 13.18
- Goals for / against
- 12 / 13
- Goals minus xG
- -5.39
- Home xG for / against
- 2.09 / 1.10 (4 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.51 / 1.46 (6 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 8+2.9510 played · +0.29 / match
Plymouth Argyle: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 5
- xG for / against
- 16.99 / 14.04
- Goals for / against
- 17 / 13
- Goals minus xG
- +0.01
- Home xG for / against
- 1.42 / 1.29 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.98 / 1.52 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 9+2.3610 played · +0.24 / match
Bradford City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 7
- xG for / against
- 12.27 / 9.91
- Goals for / against
- 7 / 6
- Goals minus xG
- -5.27
- Home xG for / against
- 1.56 / 0.94 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.89 / 1.04 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 10Oxford UnitedConceding fewer than xG+1.4910 played · +0.15 / match
Oxford United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 3
- xG for / against
- 15.17 / 13.68
- Goals for / against
- 17 / 5
- Goals minus xG
- +1.83
- Home xG for / against
- 1.34 / 1.24 (6 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.78 / 1.55 (4 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 11Peterborough UnitedGoals behind xG+1.2710 played · +0.13 / match
Peterborough United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 22
- xG for / against
- 15.82 / 14.55
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- -6.82
- Home xG for / against
- 1.73 / 1.13 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.44 / 1.78 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 12+0.0710 played · +0.01 / match
Wycombe Wanderers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 13
- xG for / against
- 13.93 / 13.86
- Goals for / against
- 18 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- +4.07
- Home xG for / against
- 1.44 / 1.65 (6 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.32 / 0.99 (4 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 13-0.2110 played · -0.02 / match
Cambridge United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 8
- xG for / against
- 14.81 / 15.02
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 15
- Goals minus xG
- -0.81
- Home xG for / against
- 1.28 / 1.28 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.68 / 1.72 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 14-0.4110 played · -0.04 / match
Stevenage: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 16
- xG for / against
- 13.10 / 13.51
- Goals for / against
- 15 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- +1.90
- Home xG for / against
- 1.34 / 1.14 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.28 / 1.57 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 15-1.5510 played · -0.15 / match
Notts County: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 17
- xG for / against
- 10.71 / 12.26
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- -0.71
- Home xG for / against
- 1.20 / 1.00 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.94 / 1.45 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 16Leyton OrientConceding fewer than xG-2.0710 played · -0.21 / match
Leyton Orient: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 14
- xG for / against
- 12.19 / 14.26
- Goals for / against
- 15 / 9
- Goals minus xG
- +2.81
- Home xG for / against
- 1.22 / 1.46 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.22 / 1.39 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 17-2.2210 played · -0.22 / match
Sheffield Wednesday: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 9
- xG for / against
- 14.17 / 16.39
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -1.17
- Home xG for / against
- 1.42 / 1.40 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.42 / 1.88 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 18-3.3310 played · -0.33 / match
Barnsley: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 23
- xG for / against
- 15.04 / 18.37
- Goals for / against
- 12 / 21
- Goals minus xG
- -3.04
- Home xG for / against
- 1.68 / 2.16 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.33 / 1.51 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 19-6.2710 played · -0.63 / match
AFC Wimbledon: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 18
- xG for / against
- 10.76 / 17.03
- Goals for / against
- 8 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- -2.76
- Home xG for / against
- 1.10 / 1.70 (4 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.06 / 1.71 (6 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 20-6.8710 played · -0.69 / match
Burton Albion: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 15
- xG for / against
- 10.88 / 17.75
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- -0.88
- Home xG for / against
- 1.32 / 1.76 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.85 / 1.79 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 21Wigan AthleticGoals behind xG-7.6010 played · -0.76 / match
Wigan Athletic: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 21
- xG for / against
- 11.52 / 19.12
- Goals for / against
- 6 / 15
- Goals minus xG
- -5.52
- Home xG for / against
- 1.52 / 1.74 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.78 / 2.08 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 22-7.7910 played · -0.78 / match
Blackpool: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 19
- xG for / against
- 11.54 / 19.33
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 19
- Goals minus xG
- +2.46
- Home xG for / against
- 1.28 / 1.75 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.03 / 2.12 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 23-7.8110 played · -0.78 / match
Doncaster Rovers: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 20
- xG for / against
- 13.87 / 21.68
- Goals for / against
- 11 / 18
- Goals minus xG
- -2.87
- Home xG for / against
- 1.29 / 1.87 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.48 / 2.47 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 24-14.0310 played · -1.40 / match
Bromley: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 24
- xG for / against
- 7.43 / 21.46
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 25
- Goals minus xG
- +1.57
- Home xG for / against
- 0.48 / 2.02 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.01 / 2.27 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
| # | Club · form | xGD | xGD / P | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | GF-xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Huddersfield Town | +12.74 | +1.27 | 1 | 10 | 21.40 | 8.66 | 19 | 9 | -2.40 | 1.90 / 1.09 | 2.38 / 0.64 |
| 2 | Stockport County | +12.32 | +1.23 | 2 | 10 | 23.73 | 11.41 | 17 | 8 | -6.73 | 2.10 / 1.29 | 2.65 / 0.99 |
| 3 | Leicester City | +6.89 | +0.69 | 10 | 10 | 20.94 | 14.05 | 20 | 16 | -0.94 | 2.18 / 1.45 | 1.96 / 1.33 |
| 4 | Luton Town | +6.26 | +0.63 | 4 | 10 | 17.50 | 11.24 | 17 | 11 | -0.50 | 2.03 / 0.92 | 1.47 / 1.32 |
| 5 | Milton Keynes Dons | +5.80 | +0.58 | 12 | 10 | 19.46 | 13.66 | 19 | 17 | -0.46 | 2.11 / 1.60 | 1.78 / 1.13 |
| 6 | Reading | +5.74 | +0.57 | 6 | 10 | 17.20 | 11.46 | 14 | 10 | -3.20 | 1.46 / 1.29 | 1.90 / 1.05 |
| 7 | Mansfield Town | +4.21 | +0.42 | 11 | 10 | 17.39 | 13.18 | 12 | 13 | -5.39 | 2.09 / 1.10 | 1.51 / 1.46 |
| 8 | Plymouth Argyle | +2.95 | +0.29 | 5 | 10 | 16.99 | 14.04 | 17 | 13 | +0.01 | 1.42 / 1.29 | 1.98 / 1.52 |
| 9 | Bradford City | +2.36 | +0.24 | 7 | 10 | 12.27 | 9.91 | 7 | 6 | -5.27 | 1.56 / 0.94 | 0.89 / 1.04 |
| 10 | Oxford UnitedConceding fewer than xG | +1.49 | +0.15 | 3 | 10 | 15.17 | 13.68 | 17 | 5 | +1.83 | 1.34 / 1.24 | 1.78 / 1.55 |
| 11 | Peterborough UnitedGoals behind xG | +1.27 | +0.13 | 22 | 10 | 15.82 | 14.55 | 9 | 16 | -6.82 | 1.73 / 1.13 | 1.44 / 1.78 |
| 12 | Wycombe Wanderers | +0.07 | +0.01 | 13 | 10 | 13.93 | 13.86 | 18 | 16 | +4.07 | 1.44 / 1.65 | 1.32 / 0.99 |
| 13 | Cambridge United | -0.21 | -0.02 | 8 | 10 | 14.81 | 15.02 | 14 | 15 | -0.81 | 1.28 / 1.28 | 1.68 / 1.72 |
| 14 | Stevenage | -0.41 | -0.04 | 16 | 10 | 13.10 | 13.51 | 15 | 10 | +1.90 | 1.34 / 1.14 | 1.28 / 1.57 |
| 15 | Notts County | -1.55 | -0.15 | 17 | 10 | 10.71 | 12.26 | 10 | 11 | -0.71 | 1.20 / 1.00 | 0.94 / 1.45 |
| 16 | Leyton OrientConceding fewer than xG | -2.07 | -0.21 | 14 | 10 | 12.19 | 14.26 | 15 | 9 | +2.81 | 1.22 / 1.46 | 1.22 / 1.39 |
| 17 | Sheffield Wednesday | -2.22 | -0.22 | 9 | 10 | 14.17 | 16.39 | 13 | 10 | -1.17 | 1.42 / 1.40 | 1.42 / 1.88 |
| 18 | Barnsley | -3.33 | -0.33 | 23 | 10 | 15.04 | 18.37 | 12 | 21 | -3.04 | 1.68 / 2.16 | 1.33 / 1.51 |
| 19 | AFC Wimbledon | -6.27 | -0.63 | 18 | 10 | 10.76 | 17.03 | 8 | 18 | -2.76 | 1.10 / 1.70 | 1.06 / 1.71 |
| 20 | Burton Albion | -6.87 | -0.69 | 15 | 10 | 10.88 | 17.75 | 10 | 16 | -0.88 | 1.32 / 1.76 | 0.85 / 1.79 |
| 21 | Wigan AthleticGoals behind xG | -7.60 | -0.76 | 21 | 10 | 11.52 | 19.12 | 6 | 15 | -5.52 | 1.52 / 1.74 | 0.78 / 2.08 |
| 22 | Blackpool | -7.79 | -0.78 | 19 | 10 | 11.54 | 19.33 | 14 | 19 | +2.46 | 1.28 / 1.75 | 1.03 / 2.12 |
| 23 | Doncaster Rovers | -7.81 | -0.78 | 20 | 10 | 13.87 | 21.68 | 11 | 18 | -2.87 | 1.29 / 1.87 | 1.48 / 2.47 |
| 24 | Bromley | -14.03 | -1.40 | 24 | 10 | 7.43 | 21.46 | 9 | 25 | +1.57 | 0.48 / 2.02 | 1.01 / 2.27 |
Sorted by total xG difference in this window. xGD / P is the difference per match; compare it alongside P when clubs have played different numbers of games. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window, oldest first. Pos is the season position on points. Home and away are xG for and against per match. Flags use the season, regardless of the selected window. GF-xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth.
- xGD
- xG for minus xG against. The table is sorted on this total.
- xGD / P
- xG difference per match. Useful when clubs have played different numbers of games.
- Form bars
- The latest matches in this window, oldest first. Above the line is positive xGD; below is negative. All clubs use the same scale.
- Pos
- Season position on points.
- P
- League matches actually played in this window.
- xGF / xGA
- Expected goals for and against.
- GF / GA
- Goals for and against.
- GF-xG
- Goals minus xG. Positive is more goals than the shots were worth.
- Home / Away
- xG for / against per match, at home and away.
- Flags
- Season goals against xG, regardless of the selected window. The Stop Press explains each flag.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Oxford United
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 9.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Leyton Orient
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.8 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Wigan Athletic
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 9.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Peterborough United
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 8.8 behind xG across 13 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
- Home xG average
- 1.56
- Away xG average
- 1.41
Home sides in the League One are averaging 1.56 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.41. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49
Over 2.5 goals 59.5% (15/22) · both teams to score 61.7% (13/21)
Home
40.5%
25/17 (2.47)
Draw
23.9%
51/16 (4.19)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Home side
AFC Wimbledon
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.00
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.84
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.99
- Venue attack rating
- 0.78
- Venue defence rating
- 1.18
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against
Away side
Blackpool
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 1.30
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Blackpool’s side.
1 Nov · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 2.33 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.68 for · 0.81 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.80 for · 2.06 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.90 against
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.60, Blackpool 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Blackpool goals across.
| AFC Wimbledon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 40.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11
Over 2.5 goals 57.0% (3/4) · both teams to score 56.6% (13/17)
Home
54.9%
14/17 (1.82)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
Compare teams & see the workings: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Home side
Milton Keynes Dons
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.68
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
Away side
Burton Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.75
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.70
- Venue defence rating
- 1.08
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 63.1% (10/17) · both teams to score 64.3% (5/9)
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.32)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Home side
Sheffield Wednesday
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.
1 Nov · Home
Blackpool1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against
20 Oct · Away
Notts County0–2xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against
Away side
Plymouth Argyle
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.10
- Venue attack rating
- 1.12
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Plymouth Argyle’s side.
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Stockport County v Reading
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65
Over 2.5 goals 60.4% (15/23) · both teams to score 62.2% (14/23)
Home
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
Draw
23.6%
71/22 (4.23)
Away
42.2%
26/19 (2.37)
Compare teams & see the workings: Stockport County v Reading
Home side
Stockport County
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.40
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
Away side
Reading
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.75
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 34.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 42.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00
Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48
Over 2.5 goals 59.4% (13/19) · both teams to score 61.6% (5/8)
Home
40.4%
34/23 (2.48)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Compare teams & see the workings: Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
Home side
Wigan Athletic
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.61
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.78
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.62
- Venue attack rating
- 1.02
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wigan Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.66 for · 1.15 against
31 Oct · Home
Bromley3–2xG 3.03 for · 1.81 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 1.31 for · 2.93 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.50 for · 2.45 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.25 for · 1.85 against
Away side
Barnsley
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.80
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Away
Reading1–2xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against
20 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Wigan Athletic expected goals 1.59, Barnsley 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wigan Athletic goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Wigan Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 40.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 20 Nov, 20:00
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97
Over 2.5 goals 71.6% (2/5) · both teams to score 70.9% (9/22)
Home
34.6%
17/9 (2.89)
Draw
21.4%
11/3 (4.66)
Away
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
Compare teams & see the workings: Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Home side
Barnsley
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.80
- Venue attack rating
- 1.02
- Venue defence rating
- 1.27
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Away
Reading1–2xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against
20 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against
Away side
Sheffield Wednesday
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.65
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.79
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.09
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.
1 Nov · Home
Blackpool1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against
20 Oct · Away
Notts County0–2xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnsley expected goals 1.74, Sheffield Wednesday 1.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Barnsley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 34.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.4%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 71.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Blackpool v Wigan Athletic
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.49
Over 2.5 goals 62.0% (11/18) · both teams to score 63.4% (11/19)
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.31)
Draw
23.3%
56/17 (4.30)
Away
33.5%
2/1 (2.98)
Compare teams & see the workings: Blackpool v Wigan Athletic
Home side
Blackpool
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.46
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.67
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.11
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Blackpool’s side.
1 Nov · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 2.33 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.68 for · 0.81 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.80 for · 2.06 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.90 against
Away side
Wigan Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.29
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.91
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.62
- Venue attack rating
- 0.95
- Venue defence rating
- 1.14
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wigan Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.66 for · 1.15 against
31 Oct · Home
Bromley3–2xG 3.03 for · 1.81 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 1.31 for · 2.93 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.50 for · 2.45 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.25 for · 1.85 against
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.49.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackpool expected goals 1.71, Wigan Athletic 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackpool goals down, Wigan Athletic goals across.
| Blackpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 33.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Reading v Bromley
Expected home goals 2.51 · expected away goals 1.15
Over 2.5 goals 70.8% (7/17) · both teams to score 62.8% (13/22)
Home
66.9%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
17.4%
71/15 (5.73)
Away
15.6%
124/23 (6.39)
Compare teams & see the workings: Reading v Bromley
Home side
Reading
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.04
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.24
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
Away side
Bromley
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.41
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.70
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 1.35
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bromley’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.81 for · 3.03 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 0.57 for · 2.95 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.60 for · 1.53 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.21 for · 2.96 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.41 for · 1.75 against
Expected home goals 2.51 · expected away goals 1.15.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Reading expected goals 2.51, Bromley 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Reading goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Reading win, per cent
- 66.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 17.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 15.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10
Over 2.5 goals 58.2% (13/18) · both teams to score 56.9% (16/21)
Home
56.6%
13/17 (1.77)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
21.3%
70/19 (4.68)
Compare teams & see the workings: Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
Home side
Bradford City
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.63
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.97
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.17
- Venue attack rating
- 1.03
- Venue defence rating
- 0.81
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bradford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.03 for · 1.86 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.49 for · 1.76 against
17 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–0xG 2.26 for · 1.07 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 0.30 against
Away side
Doncaster Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.32
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.05
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.20
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Doncaster Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.06 for · 4.58 against
27 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–3xG 1.35 for · 2.84 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.81 for · 1.23 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.20 for · 3.87 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.08 for · 2.60 against
Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.92, Doncaster Rovers 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Doncaster Rovers goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 56.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
- 21.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Burton Albion v Luton Town
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 52.7% (9/10) · both teams to score 56.0% (11/14)
Home
31.3%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
43.6%
31/24 (2.29)
Compare teams & see the workings: Burton Albion v Luton Town
Home side
Burton Albion
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.52
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
Away side
Luton Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.48
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.41
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.60
- Venue attack rating
- 1.03
- Venue defence rating
- 0.94
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Luton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.84 for · 0.91 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.13 for · 1.08 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.84 for · 1.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 1.27 against
20 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 2.71 for · 1.14 against
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.26, Luton Town 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 43.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Cambridge United v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93
Over 2.5 goals 58.9% (16/23) · both teams to score 57.8% (8/11)
Home
22.0%
32/9 (4.56)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
56.0%
11/14 (1.79)
Compare teams & see the workings: Cambridge United v Stockport County
Home side
Cambridge United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.36
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.39
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.16
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cambridge United’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.83 for · 1.80 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.39 for · 1.72 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 1.45 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.85 for · 1.23 against
17 Oct · Away
Barnsley2–1xG 1.55 for · 2.10 against
Away side
Stockport County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.38
- Venue defence rating
- 0.79
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.13, Stockport County 1.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 56.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 57.6% (14/19) · both teams to score 59.3% (11/16)
Home
47.5%
21/19 (2.10)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
28.8%
52/21 (3.48)
Compare teams & see the workings: Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
Home side
Huddersfield Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.05
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.12
- Venue attack rating
- 1.20
- Venue defence rating
- 0.82
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Huddersfield Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
Luton Town1–1xG 0.91 for · 0.84 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 1.03 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.45 for · 0.50 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.72 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 2.70 for · 0.76 against
Away side
Leicester City
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 0.92
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leicester City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–2xG 2.49 for · 1.23 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.93 for · 1.31 against
24 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.27 for · 1.65 against
20 Oct · Away
Bromley4–0xG 2.96 for · 0.21 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.60 for · 1.08 against
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Huddersfield Town expected goals 1.71, Leicester City 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Huddersfield Town goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Huddersfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Huddersfield Town win, per cent
- 47.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 28.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30
Over 2.5 goals 49.3% (25/24) · both teams to score 53.8% (6/7)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
26.1%
65/23 (3.83)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
Compare teams & see the workings: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
Home side
Leyton Orient
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.75
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.02
- Venue attack rating
- 0.84
- Venue defence rating
- 1.16
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leyton Orient’s side.
Away side
AFC Wimbledon
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.96
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.64
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.99
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 1.03
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.35, AFC Wimbledon 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48
Over 2.5 goals 58.4% (17/24) · both teams to score 60.9% (9/14)
Home
39.5%
26/17 (2.53)
Draw
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
36.4%
7/4 (2.75)
Compare teams & see the workings: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Home side
Mansfield Town
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.91
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.14
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.06
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Mansfield Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.15 for · 1.66 against
31 Oct · Home
Notts County0–2xG 1.27 for · 1.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Blackpool4–1xG 2.33 for · 1.21 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 0.57 against
15 Oct · Home
xG 3.77 for · 0.74 against
Away side
Milton Keynes Dons
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.85
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.24
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.55, Milton Keynes Dons 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 39.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Notts County v Stevenage
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.01
Over 2.5 goals 43.1% (29/22) · both teams to score 47.8% (12/11)
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
27.0%
62/23 (3.70)
Away
27.5%
37/14 (3.64)
Compare teams & see the workings: Notts County v Stevenage
Home side
Notts County
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.37
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.51
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.81
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Notts County’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.41 for · 1.27 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.43 for · 2.73 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.45 for · 0.25 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.42 for · 0.87 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.56 for · 1.35 against
Away side
Stevenage
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.08
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stevenage’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 2.49 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.53 for · 2.41 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.90 for · 1.38 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 2.26 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 2.36 for · 0.25 against
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.01.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.39, Stevenage 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Stevenage goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36
Over 2.5 goals 49.4% (25/24) · both teams to score 53.9% (6/7)
Home
35.5%
20/11 (2.82)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
38.4%
8/5 (2.60)
Compare teams & see the workings: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Home side
Oxford United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.41
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.38
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.94
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oxford United’s side.
Away side
Wycombe Wanderers
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.26
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.16
- Venue attack rating
- 0.98
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wycombe Wanderers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.39 for · 0.66 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.48 for · 1.80 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 0.85 against
17 Oct · Home
Notts County2–0xG 0.87 for · 0.42 against
10 Oct · Home
Luton Town1–4xG 1.96 for · 2.93 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 35.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
