League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Leyton Orient
14th on points, with 17. 18th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 15.44 xG for, 20.83 against, goal difference +5.
- Season xGD
- -5.39
- GF minus xG
- +3.56
- Last 10 xGD
- -2.07
- xG per match
- 1.19
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.19
- xG against / match
- 1.60
- xGD / match
- -0.41
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.22
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- -0.21
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.45
- xG against / match
- 1.46
- xGD / match
- -0.02
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.84 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.16. Away attack 0.92 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.95.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 26.1% (65/23), away 35.8% (43/24). Expected home goals 1.35, expected away goals 1.30. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
Home side
Leyton Orient
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.75
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.02
- Venue attack rating
- 0.84
- Venue defence rating
- 1.16
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leyton Orient’s side.
Away side
AFC Wimbledon
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.96
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.64
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.99
- Venue attack rating
- 0.80
- Venue defence rating
- 1.03
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.35, AFC Wimbledon 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.8 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Leyton Orient’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.91 for · 1.61 against
21 Oct · Away
Reading0–1xG 2.62 for · 1.42 against
17 Oct · Home
Blackpool2–0xG 2.06 for · 0.80 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.30 for · 1.17 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 1.00 for · 1.96 against
19 Sept · Home
Stevenage1–0xG 0.37 for · 1.56 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.88 for · 1.16 against
5 Sept · Away
Luton Town1–1xG 0.58 for · 2.12 against
1 Sept · Away
Bromley5–0xG 1.67 for · 0.63 against
29 Aug · Home
Barnsley1–3xG 0.62 for · 2.13 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.60 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.38 for · 2.84 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Cambridge United | 3-0 | 1.80 | 1.83 | +1.20 |
| 24 Oct | A | Burton Albion | 1-2 | 0.91 | 1.61 | +0.09 |
| 21 Oct | A | Reading | 0-1 | 2.62 | 1.42 | -2.62 |
| 17 Oct | H | Blackpool | 2-0 | 2.06 | 0.80 | -0.06 |
| 10 Oct | A | Bradford City | 0-0 | 0.30 | 1.17 | -0.30 |
| 3 Oct | H | Plymouth Argyle | 0-2 | 1.00 | 1.96 | -1.00 |
| 19 Sept | H | Stevenage | 1-0 | 0.37 | 1.56 | +0.63 |
| 12 Sept | H | Wycombe Wanderers | 2-3 | 0.88 | 1.16 | +1.12 |
| 5 Sept | A | Luton Town | 1-1 | 0.58 | 2.12 | +0.42 |
| 1 Sept | A | Bromley | 5-0 | 1.67 | 0.63 | +3.33 |
| 29 Aug | H | Barnsley | 1-3 | 0.62 | 2.13 | +0.38 |
| 22 Aug | A | Wigan Athletic | 2-0 | 1.25 | 1.60 | +0.75 |
| 15 Aug | H | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-2 | 1.38 | 2.84 | -0.38 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
26.1%
65/23 (3.83)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
The model: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.35, AFC Wimbledon 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Stockport County v Leyton Orient
Expected home goals 1.85 · expected away goals 1.29
Home
50.6%
23/24 (1.98)
Draw
22.7%
17/5 (4.40)
Away
26.7%
11/4 (3.75)
The model: Stockport County v Leyton Orient
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.85, Leyton Orient 1.29: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Leyton Orient goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 50.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:00 · Home
Leyton Orient v Peterborough United
Expected home goals 1.51 · expected away goals 1.62
Home
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
40.6%
22/15 (2.46)
The model: Leyton Orient v Peterborough United
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.51, Peterborough United 1.62: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, Peterborough United goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 35.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 40.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Huddersfield Town v Leyton Orient
Expected home goals 1.77 · expected away goals 1.06
Home
54.0%
17/20 (1.85)
Draw
23.4%
59/18 (4.28)
Away
22.6%
24/7 (4.43)
The model: Huddersfield Town v Leyton Orient
The model
What the expected goals say
Huddersfield Town expected goals 1.77, Leyton Orient 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Huddersfield Town goals down, Leyton Orient goals across.
| Huddersfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Huddersfield Town win, per cent
- 54.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 22.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Leyton Orient v Notts County
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
36.7%
31/18 (2.72)
Draw
26.6%
58/21 (3.76)
Away
36.7%
19/11 (2.73)
The model: Leyton Orient v Notts County
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.28, Notts County 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, Notts County goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 36.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Notts County win, per cent
- 36.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
