League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Bromley
24th on points, with 9. 24th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 11.01 xG for, 27.60 against, goal difference -20.
- Season xGD
- -16.59
- GF minus xG
- +1.99
- Last 10 xGD
- -14.03
- xG per match
- 0.85
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.85
- xG against / match
- 2.12
- xGD / match
- -1.28
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.74
- xG against / match
- 2.15
- xGD / match
- -1.40
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.75
- xG against / match
- 2.44
- xGD / match
- -1.70
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.59 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.16. Away attack 0.88 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.35.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Reading v Bromley, Sat 21 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 66.9% (1/2), draw 17.4% (71/15), away 15.6% (124/23). Expected home goals 2.51, expected away goals 1.15. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Reading v Bromley
Home side
Reading
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.04
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.24
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
Away side
Bromley
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.41
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.70
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 1.35
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bromley’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.81 for · 3.03 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 0.57 for · 2.95 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.60 for · 1.53 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.21 for · 2.96 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.41 for · 1.75 against
Expected home goals 2.51 · expected away goals 1.15.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Reading expected goals 2.51, Bromley 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Reading goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Reading win, per cent
- 66.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 17.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 15.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Bromley’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.81 for · 3.03 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 0.57 for · 2.95 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.60 for · 1.53 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.21 for · 2.96 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.41 for · 1.75 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.45 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.39 for · 2.73 against
12 Sept · Away
Blackpool2–2xG 1.38 for · 1.17 against
7 Sept · Home
xG 0.55 for · 1.22 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 0.63 for · 1.67 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.58 for · 4.23 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 0.58 for · 0.59 against
15 Aug · Away
Barnsley1–0xG 1.42 for · 1.32 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Wigan Athletic | 2-3 | 1.81 | 3.03 | +0.19 |
| 27 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1-4 | 0.57 | 2.95 | +0.43 |
| 24 Oct | H | Peterborough United | 1-1 | 0.60 | 1.53 | +0.40 |
| 20 Oct | H | Leicester City | 0-4 | 0.21 | 2.96 | -0.21 |
| 17 Oct | A | Stockport County | 0-1 | 0.41 | 1.75 | -0.41 |
| 10 Oct | A | Mansfield Town | 1-2 | 0.88 | 2.45 | +0.12 |
| 19 Sept | H | Huddersfield Town | 2-1 | 0.39 | 2.73 | +1.61 |
| 12 Sept | A | Blackpool | 2-2 | 1.38 | 1.17 | +0.62 |
| 7 Sept | H | AFC Wimbledon | 0-2 | 0.55 | 1.22 | -0.55 |
| 1 Sept | H | Leyton Orient | 0-5 | 0.63 | 1.67 | -0.63 |
| 29 Aug | A | Sheffield Wednesday | 2-7 | 1.58 | 4.23 | +0.42 |
| 22 Aug | H | Cambridge United | 1-1 | 0.58 | 0.59 | +0.42 |
| 15 Aug | A | Barnsley | 1-0 | 1.42 | 1.32 | -0.42 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
66.9%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
17.4%
71/15 (5.73)
Away
15.6%
124/23 (6.39)
The model: Reading v Bromley
The model
What the expected goals say
Reading expected goals 2.51, Bromley 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Reading goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Reading win, per cent
- 66.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 17.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 15.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Bromley v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 0.81 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
55.9%
15/19 (1.79)
The model: Bromley v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bromley expected goals 0.81, Wycombe Wanderers 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bromley goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Bromley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 |
- Bromley win, per cent
- 19.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 55.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.2%
- Most likely score
- 0-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
31.5%
37/17 (3.18)
Draw
29.5%
55/23 (3.39)
Away
39.0%
25/16 (2.56)
The model: Bromley v Burton Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Bromley expected goals 1.00, Burton Albion 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bromley goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Bromley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bromley win, per cent
- 31.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.5%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 39.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 36.2%
- Most likely score
- 0-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
54.0%
17/20 (1.85)
Draw
22.4%
66/19 (4.47)
Away
23.6%
42/13 (4.23)
The model: Plymouth Argyle v Bromley
The model
What the expected goals say
Plymouth Argyle expected goals 1.90, Bromley 1.19: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Plymouth Argyle goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Plymouth Argyle goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 54.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 23.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Doncaster Rovers v Bromley
Expected home goals 1.96 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
51.4%
18/19 (1.95)
Draw
22.0%
32/9 (4.56)
Away
26.7%
11/4 (3.75)
The model: Doncaster Rovers v Bromley
The model
What the expected goals say
Doncaster Rovers expected goals 1.96, Bromley 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Doncaster Rovers goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Doncaster Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
- 51.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.0%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
