League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Cambridge United
8th on points, with 21. 16th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 19.53 xG for, 21.05 against, goal difference +0.
- Season xGD
- -1.52
- GF minus xG
- +1.47
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.21
- xG per match
- 1.40
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.40
- xG against / match
- 1.50
- xGD / match
- -0.11
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.48
- xG against / match
- 1.50
- xGD / match
- -0.02
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.66
- xG against / match
- 1.49
- xGD / match
- +0.16
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.92 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.01 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.02.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Cambridge United v Stockport County, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 22.0% (32/9), draw 22.1% (53/15), away 56.0% (11/14). Expected home goals 1.13, expected away goals 1.93. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Cambridge United v Stockport County
Home side
Cambridge United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.36
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.39
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.16
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cambridge United’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.83 for · 1.80 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.39 for · 1.72 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 1.45 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.85 for · 1.23 against
17 Oct · Away
Barnsley2–1xG 1.55 for · 2.10 against
Away side
Stockport County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.04
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.38
- Venue defence rating
- 0.79
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.13, Stockport County 1.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 56.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Cambridge United’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.83 for · 1.80 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.39 for · 1.72 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 1.45 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.85 for · 1.23 against
17 Oct · Away
Barnsley2–1xG 1.55 for · 2.10 against
10 Oct · Home
Blackpool1–0xG 1.90 for · 0.66 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 1.30 for · 1.07 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.36 for · 0.77 against
12 Sept · Home
Reading2–1xG 0.94 for · 1.99 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.28 for · 2.23 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 0.99 for · 2.15 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.40 for · 1.10 against
22 Aug · Away
Bromley1–1xG 0.59 for · 0.58 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.74 for · 2.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 0-3 | 1.83 | 1.80 | -1.83 |
| 27 Oct | A | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-1 | 2.39 | 1.72 | -1.39 |
| 24 Oct | H | Plymouth Argyle | 2-3 | 1.41 | 1.45 | +0.59 |
| 20 Oct | H | Wycombe Wanderers | 2-2 | 0.85 | 1.23 | +1.15 |
| 17 Oct | A | Barnsley | 2-1 | 1.55 | 2.10 | +0.45 |
| 10 Oct | H | Blackpool | 1-0 | 1.90 | 0.66 | -0.90 |
| 26 Sept | H | AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 | 1.30 | 1.07 | -0.30 |
| 19 Sept | A | Oxford United | 1-1 | 1.36 | 0.77 | -0.36 |
| 12 Sept | H | Reading | 2-1 | 0.94 | 1.99 | +1.06 |
| 5 Sept | A | Burton Albion | 2-2 | 1.28 | 2.23 | +0.72 |
| 1 Sept | A | Bradford City | 2-1 | 0.99 | 2.15 | +1.01 |
| 29 Aug | H | Huddersfield Town | 1-2 | 1.40 | 1.10 | -0.40 |
| 22 Aug | A | Bromley | 1-1 | 0.59 | 0.58 | +0.41 |
| 15 Aug | H | Wigan Athletic | 3-2 | 1.74 | 2.20 | +1.26 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Cambridge United v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93
Home
22.0%
32/9 (4.56)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
56.0%
11/14 (1.79)
The model: Cambridge United v Stockport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.13, Stockport County 1.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 56.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Peterborough United v Cambridge United
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
46.9%
17/15 (2.13)
Draw
24.1%
63/20 (4.15)
Away
29.0%
22/9 (3.44)
The model: Peterborough United v Cambridge United
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.67, Cambridge United 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Cambridge United goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 46.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 29.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Cambridge United v Leicester City
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.55
Home
32.3%
44/21 (3.10)
Draw
24.7%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
43.0%
4/3 (2.33)
The model: Cambridge United v Leicester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.31, Leicester City 1.55: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 32.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 43.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Milton Keynes Dons v Cambridge United
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 1.60
Home
42.1%
11/8 (2.38)
Draw
22.7%
17/5 (4.40)
Away
35.2%
35/19 (2.84)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Cambridge United
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.76, Cambridge United 1.60: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Cambridge United goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 42.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 35.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 18 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Cambridge United v Stevenage
Expected home goals 1.38 · expected away goals 1.24
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
26.2%
31/11 (3.82)
Away
33.7%
47/24 (2.96)
The model: Cambridge United v Stevenage
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.38, Stevenage 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stevenage goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 33.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
