League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Stockport County
2nd on points, with 26. 2nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 31.05 xG for, 17.04 against, goal difference +12.
- Season xGD
- +14.01
- GF minus xG
- -5.05
- Last 10 xGD
- +12.32
- xG per match
- 2.22
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.22
- xG against / match
- 1.22
- xGD / match
- +1.00
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.37
- xG against / match
- 1.14
- xGD / match
- +1.23
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.60
- xG against / match
- 1.04
- xGD / match
- +1.56
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.25 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.38 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.79.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Stockport County v Reading, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 34.2% (27/14), draw 23.6% (71/22), away 42.2% (26/19). Expected home goals 1.47, expected away goals 1.65. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Stockport County v Reading
Home side
Stockport County
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.40
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
Away side
Reading
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.75
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 34.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 42.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
10 Oct · Home
Barnsley3–1xG 1.91 for · 1.58 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.83 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.58 for · 1.18 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 2.29 for · 1.21 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 2.52 for · 0.97 against
2 Sept · Away
Luton Town0–2xG 0.76 for · 1.40 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.21 for · 1.52 against
22 Aug · Home
Blackpool1–2xG 3.54 for · 1.79 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 1.81 for · 0.92 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2-1 | 2.79 | 1.44 | -0.79 |
| 27 Oct | A | Oxford United | 0-1 | 2.53 | 2.16 | -2.53 |
| 24 Oct | A | Notts County | 1-1 | 2.73 | 0.43 | -1.73 |
| 20 Oct | A | Doncaster Rovers | 2-0 | 3.87 | 0.20 | -1.87 |
| 17 Oct | H | Bromley | 1-0 | 1.75 | 0.41 | -0.75 |
| 10 Oct | H | Barnsley | 3-1 | 1.91 | 1.58 | +1.09 |
| 26 Sept | H | Peterborough United | 1-0 | 1.76 | 1.83 | -0.76 |
| 19 Sept | A | Sheffield Wednesday | 0-0 | 1.58 | 1.18 | -1.58 |
| 12 Sept | H | Leicester City | 3-4 | 2.29 | 1.21 | +0.71 |
| 5 Sept | A | Wigan Athletic | 4-0 | 2.52 | 0.97 | +1.48 |
| 2 Sept | A | Luton Town | 0-2 | 0.76 | 1.40 | -0.76 |
| 29 Aug | H | Wycombe Wanderers | 5-1 | 1.21 | 1.52 | +3.79 |
| 22 Aug | H | Blackpool | 1-2 | 3.54 | 1.79 | -2.54 |
| 15 Aug | A | Plymouth Argyle | 3-1 | 1.81 | 0.92 | +1.19 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Stockport County v Reading
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65
Home
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
Draw
23.6%
71/22 (4.23)
Away
42.2%
26/19 (2.37)
The model: Stockport County v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 34.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 42.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Cambridge United v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93
Home
22.0%
32/9 (4.56)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
56.0%
11/14 (1.79)
The model: Cambridge United v Stockport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.13, Stockport County 1.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 56.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Stockport County v Leyton Orient
Expected home goals 1.85 · expected away goals 1.29
Home
50.6%
23/24 (1.98)
Draw
22.7%
17/5 (4.40)
Away
26.7%
11/4 (3.75)
The model: Stockport County v Leyton Orient
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.85, Leyton Orient 1.29: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Leyton Orient goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.3 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 50.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Mansfield Town v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.73
Home
31.1%
51/23 (3.22)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
The model: Mansfield Town v Stockport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.39, Stockport County 1.73: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 31.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 45.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Stevenage v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.11 · expected away goals 1.75
Home
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Draw
23.5%
13/4 (4.25)
Away
52.5%
19/21 (1.90)
The model: Stevenage v Stockport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Stevenage expected goals 1.11, Stockport County 1.75: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stevenage goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Stevenage goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 23.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.5%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 52.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
