League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Luton Town
4th on points, with 24. 4th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 23.79 xG for, 16.02 against, goal difference +6.
- Season xGD
- +7.77
- GF minus xG
- +3.21
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.26
- xG per match
- 1.70
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.70
- xG against / match
- 1.14
- xGD / match
- +0.55
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.75
- xG against / match
- 1.12
- xGD / match
- +0.63
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.79
- xG against / match
- 1.19
- xGD / match
- +0.60
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.14 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.76. Away attack 1.03 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.94.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Burton Albion v Luton Town, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 31.3% (11/5), draw 25.1% (3/1), away 43.6% (31/24). Expected home goals 1.26, expected away goals 1.53. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Burton Albion v Luton Town
Home side
Burton Albion
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.52
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
Away side
Luton Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.48
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.41
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.60
- Venue attack rating
- 1.03
- Venue defence rating
- 0.94
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Luton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.84 for · 0.91 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.13 for · 1.08 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.84 for · 1.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 1.27 against
20 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 2.71 for · 1.14 against
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.26, Luton Town 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 43.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Luton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.84 for · 0.91 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.13 for · 1.08 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.84 for · 1.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 1.27 against
20 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 2.71 for · 1.14 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.54 for · 1.36 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 2.93 for · 1.96 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.85 for · 0.28 against
10 Sept · Away
Stevenage1–2xG 0.89 for · 1.31 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 2.12 for · 0.58 against
2 Sept · Home
xG 1.40 for · 0.76 against
30 Aug · Away
xG 1.39 for · 1.65 against
22 Aug · Home
Notts County2–2xG 1.85 for · 0.76 against
15 Aug · Away
Reading4–3xG 1.65 for · 1.61 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov | A | Huddersfield Town | 1-1 | 0.84 | 0.91 | +0.16 |
| 31 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 2-0 | 1.13 | 1.08 | +0.87 |
| 27 Oct | H | Doncaster Rovers | 3-1 | 2.84 | 1.35 | +0.16 |
| 24 Oct | H | Leicester City | 2-1 | 1.65 | 1.27 | +0.35 |
| 20 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2-1 | 2.71 | 1.14 | -0.71 |
| 17 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1-2 | 1.54 | 1.36 | -0.54 |
| 10 Oct | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 4-1 | 2.93 | 1.96 | +1.07 |
| 19 Sept | H | Bradford City | 0-1 | 0.85 | 0.28 | -0.85 |
| 10 Sept | A | Stevenage | 1-2 | 0.89 | 1.31 | +0.11 |
| 5 Sept | H | Leyton Orient | 1-1 | 2.12 | 0.58 | -1.12 |
| 2 Sept | H | Stockport County | 2-0 | 1.40 | 0.76 | +0.60 |
| 30 Aug | A | Mansfield Town | 2-5 | 1.39 | 1.65 | +0.61 |
| 22 Aug | H | Notts County | 2-2 | 1.85 | 0.76 | +0.15 |
| 15 Aug | A | Reading | 4-3 | 1.65 | 1.61 | +2.35 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Burton Albion v Luton Town
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53
Home
31.3%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
43.6%
31/24 (2.29)
The model: Burton Albion v Luton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.26, Luton Town 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 43.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Luton Town v Oxford United
Expected home goals 1.96 · expected away goals 1.17
Home
55.9%
15/19 (1.79)
Draw
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
Away
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
The model: Luton Town v Oxford United
The model
What the expected goals say
Luton Town expected goals 1.96, Oxford United 1.17: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Luton Town goals down, Oxford United goals across.
| Luton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 55.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 22.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
33.4%
2/1 (2.99)
Draw
24.0%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
42.6%
27/20 (2.35)
The model: Blackpool v Luton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackpool expected goals 1.41, Luton Town 1.62: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackpool goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Blackpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 33.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 42.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Luton Town v Wigan Athletic
Expected home goals 2.04 · expected away goals 1.01
Home
61.0%
7/11 (1.64)
Draw
20.9%
19/5 (4.80)
Away
18.1%
95/21 (5.52)
The model: Luton Town v Wigan Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Luton Town expected goals 2.04, Wigan Athletic 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Luton Town goals down, Wigan Athletic goals across.
| Luton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 61.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.9%
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 18.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.9%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 19 Dec, 12:30 · Away
Sheffield Wednesday v Luton Town
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.39
Home
43.1%
29/22 (2.32)
Draw
24.0%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
32.8%
45/22 (3.05)
The model: Sheffield Wednesday v Luton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.63, Luton Town 1.39: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 32.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
