League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Bradford City
7th on points, with 22. 9th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 15.71 xG for, 13.73 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +1.98
- GF minus xG
- -5.71
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.36
- xG per match
- 1.21
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.21
- xG against / match
- 1.06
- xGD / match
- +0.15
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.23
- xG against / match
- 0.99
- xGD / match
- +0.24
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.36
- xG against / match
- 1.18
- xGD / match
- +0.17
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.03 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.81. Away attack 0.75 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.82.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 56.6% (13/17), draw 22.1% (53/15), away 21.3% (70/19). Expected home goals 1.92, expected away goals 1.10. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
Home side
Bradford City
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.63
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.97
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.17
- Venue attack rating
- 1.03
- Venue defence rating
- 0.81
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Bradford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.03 for · 1.86 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.49 for · 1.76 against
17 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–0xG 2.26 for · 1.07 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 0.30 against
Away side
Doncaster Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.32
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.05
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.20
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Doncaster Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.06 for · 4.58 against
27 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–3xG 1.35 for · 2.84 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.81 for · 1.23 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.20 for · 3.87 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.08 for · 2.60 against
Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.92, Doncaster Rovers 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Doncaster Rovers goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 56.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
- 21.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Bradford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.03 for · 1.86 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.49 for · 1.76 against
17 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–0xG 2.26 for · 1.07 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 0.30 against
3 Oct · Away
Reading1–1xG 0.94 for · 0.62 against
19 Sept · Away
Luton Town1–0xG 0.28 for · 0.85 against
12 Sept · Away
Notts County1–0xG 0.50 for · 0.49 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 1.20 for · 0.49 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 2.15 for · 0.99 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.88 for · 1.22 against
20 Aug · Away
xG 0.59 for · 1.49 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.97 for · 1.11 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Huddersfield Town | 0-3 | 1.03 | 1.86 | -1.03 |
| 24 Oct | A | Oxford United | 0-0 | 1.25 | 1.48 | -1.25 |
| 20 Oct | A | Burton Albion | 0-0 | 1.49 | 1.76 | -1.49 |
| 17 Oct | H | Stevenage | 2-0 | 2.26 | 1.07 | -0.26 |
| 10 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 0-0 | 1.17 | 0.30 | -1.17 |
| 3 Oct | A | Reading | 1-1 | 0.94 | 0.62 | +0.06 |
| 19 Sept | A | Luton Town | 1-0 | 0.28 | 0.85 | +0.72 |
| 12 Sept | A | Notts County | 1-0 | 0.50 | 0.49 | +0.50 |
| 5 Sept | H | Mansfield Town | 1-0 | 1.20 | 0.49 | -0.20 |
| 1 Sept | H | Cambridge United | 1-2 | 2.15 | 0.99 | -1.15 |
| 29 Aug | A | Plymouth Argyle | 0-2 | 0.88 | 1.22 | -0.88 |
| 20 Aug | A | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-0 | 0.59 | 1.49 | +0.41 |
| 15 Aug | H | Peterborough United | 2-0 | 1.97 | 1.11 | +0.03 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10
Home
56.6%
13/17 (1.77)
Draw
22.1%
53/15 (4.53)
Away
21.3%
70/19 (4.68)
The model: Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.92, Doncaster Rovers 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Doncaster Rovers goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 56.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.1%
- Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
- 21.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
50.6%
23/24 (1.98)
Draw
24.9%
3/1 (4.01)
Away
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
The model: Bradford City v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.60, Barnsley 1.04: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 50.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.9%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 24.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Wycombe Wanderers v Bradford City
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.10
Home
39.8%
35/23 (2.51)
Draw
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
Away
32.4%
48/23 (3.09)
The model: Wycombe Wanderers v Bradford City
The model
What the expected goals say
Wycombe Wanderers expected goals 1.26, Bradford City 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wycombe Wanderers goals down, Bradford City goals across.
| Wycombe Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 39.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.8%
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 32.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Bradford City v Milton Keynes Dons
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
38.4%
37/23 (2.61)
Draw
25.4%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
36.2%
37/21 (2.76)
The model: Bradford City v Milton Keynes Dons
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.41, Milton Keynes Dons 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 38.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Bradford City v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
54.8%
19/23 (1.82)
Draw
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
Away
20.7%
65/17 (4.82)
The model: Bradford City v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.65, AFC Wimbledon 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 54.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 20.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
