League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Burton Albion
15th on points, with 17. 22nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 13.71 xG for, 23.01 against, goal difference -3.
- Season xGD
- -9.30
- GF minus xG
- +4.29
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.87
- xG per match
- 0.98
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.98
- xG against / match
- 1.64
- xGD / match
- -0.66
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.09
- xG against / match
- 1.77
- xGD / match
- -0.69
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.06
- xG against / match
- 1.81
- xGD / match
- -0.76
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.86 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.05. Away attack 0.70 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.08.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.9% (14/17), draw 22.6% (65/19), away 22.5% (69/20). Expected home goals 1.86, expected away goals 1.11. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Home side
Milton Keynes Dons
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.68
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
Away side
Burton Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.75
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.70
- Venue defence rating
- 1.08
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 0.17 for · 3.23 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 0.99 for · 2.52 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.85 for · 1.87 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.47 for · 1.21 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 2.23 for · 1.28 against
2 Sept · Home
xG 0.92 for · 1.34 against
29 Aug · Away
Notts County1–2xG 0.16 for · 2.08 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.81 for · 1.31 against
15 Aug · Home
Stevenage1–1xG 0.94 for · 0.53 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 0-2 | 0.66 | 1.39 | -0.66 |
| 24 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 2-1 | 1.61 | 0.91 | +0.39 |
| 20 Oct | H | Bradford City | 0-0 | 1.76 | 1.49 | -1.76 |
| 17 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 2-2 | 1.07 | 3.15 | +0.93 |
| 10 Oct | A | Doncaster Rovers | 0-1 | 1.07 | 0.70 | -1.07 |
| 3 Oct | H | Huddersfield Town | 1-3 | 0.17 | 3.23 | +0.83 |
| 26 Sept | A | Plymouth Argyle | 1-0 | 0.99 | 2.52 | +0.01 |
| 19 Sept | H | Mansfield Town | 2-2 | 0.85 | 1.87 | +1.15 |
| 12 Sept | A | Oxford United | 0-3 | 0.47 | 1.21 | -0.47 |
| 5 Sept | H | Cambridge United | 2-2 | 2.23 | 1.28 | -0.23 |
| 2 Sept | H | AFC Wimbledon | 4-1 | 0.92 | 1.34 | +3.08 |
| 29 Aug | A | Notts County | 1-2 | 0.16 | 2.08 | +0.84 |
| 22 Aug | A | Leicester City | 2-1 | 0.81 | 1.31 | +1.19 |
| 15 Aug | H | Stevenage | 1-1 | 0.94 | 0.53 | +0.06 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11
Home
54.9%
14/17 (1.82)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Burton Albion v Luton Town
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53
Home
31.3%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
43.6%
31/24 (2.29)
The model: Burton Albion v Luton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.26, Luton Town 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Luton Town goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 9.4 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.9 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 43.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
31.5%
37/17 (3.18)
Draw
29.5%
55/23 (3.39)
Away
39.0%
25/16 (2.56)
The model: Bromley v Burton Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Bromley expected goals 1.00, Burton Albion 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bromley goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Bromley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Bromley win, per cent
- 31.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.5%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 39.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 36.2%
- Most likely score
- 0-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Burton Albion v Wigan Athletic
Expected home goals 1.53 · expected away goals 1.40
Home
40.5%
25/17 (2.47)
Draw
24.6%
43/14 (4.07)
Away
35.0%
13/7 (2.86)
The model: Burton Albion v Wigan Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.53, Wigan Athletic 1.40: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Wigan Athletic goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 40.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 35.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
21.7%
76/21 (4.62)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
54.8%
19/23 (1.83)
The model: Burton Albion v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.01, Reading 1.75: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Reading goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 21.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 54.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
