League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Peterborough United
22nd on points, with 10. 12th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 19.78 xG for, 20.45 against, goal difference -12.
- Season xGD
- -0.67
- GF minus xG
- -8.78
- Last 10 xGD
- +1.27
- xG per match
- 1.52
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.52
- xG against / match
- 1.57
- xGD / match
- -0.05
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.58
- xG against / match
- 1.46
- xGD / match
- +0.13
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.70
- xG against / match
- 1.65
- xGD / match
- +0.06
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.04 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.89. Away attack 0.99 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.15.
No fixture for Peterborough United in the next eight days.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 8.8 behind xG across 13 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Peterborough United’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Luton Town0–2xG 1.08 for · 1.13 against
24 Oct · Away
Bromley1–1xG 1.53 for · 0.60 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.92 for · 2.72 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 3.15 for · 1.07 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.70 for · 2.60 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.83 for · 1.76 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.51 for · 1.51 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.21 for · 1.24 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 1.97 for · 1.36 against
1 Sept · Home
Stevenage0–0xG 0.92 for · 0.56 against
29 Aug · Away
Blackpool0–4xG 1.46 for · 2.68 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.39 for · 1.25 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 1.11 for · 1.97 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Luton Town | 0-2 | 1.08 | 1.13 | -1.08 |
| 24 Oct | A | Bromley | 1-1 | 1.53 | 0.60 | -0.53 |
| 20 Oct | A | Huddersfield Town | 1-4 | 0.92 | 2.72 | +0.08 |
| 17 Oct | H | Burton Albion | 2-2 | 3.15 | 1.07 | -1.15 |
| 10 Oct | A | Leicester City | 3-1 | 1.70 | 2.60 | +1.30 |
| 26 Sept | A | Stockport County | 0-1 | 1.83 | 1.76 | -1.83 |
| 19 Sept | H | Doncaster Rovers | 0-2 | 1.51 | 1.51 | -1.51 |
| 12 Sept | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1-1 | 1.21 | 1.24 | -0.21 |
| 5 Sept | H | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-2 | 1.97 | 1.36 | -0.97 |
| 1 Sept | H | Stevenage | 0-0 | 0.92 | 0.56 | -0.92 |
| 29 Aug | A | Blackpool | 0-4 | 1.46 | 2.68 | -1.46 |
| 22 Aug | H | Mansfield Town | 2-1 | 1.39 | 1.25 | +0.61 |
| 15 Aug | A | Bradford City | 0-2 | 1.11 | 1.97 | -1.11 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Plymouth Argyle v Peterborough United
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 1.33
Home
44.3%
29/23 (2.26)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
31.5%
37/17 (3.18)
The model: Plymouth Argyle v Peterborough United
The model
What the expected goals say
Plymouth Argyle expected goals 1.62, Peterborough United 1.33: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Plymouth Argyle goals down, Peterborough United goals across.
| Plymouth Argyle goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 44.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 31.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Peterborough United v Cambridge United
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
46.9%
17/15 (2.13)
Draw
24.1%
63/20 (4.15)
Away
29.0%
22/9 (3.44)
The model: Peterborough United v Cambridge United
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.67, Cambridge United 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Cambridge United goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.3 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 46.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 29.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:00 · Away
Leyton Orient v Peterborough United
Expected home goals 1.51 · expected away goals 1.62
Home
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
40.6%
22/15 (2.46)
The model: Leyton Orient v Peterborough United
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.51, Peterborough United 1.62: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, Peterborough United goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 10.7 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.1 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 35.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 40.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Peterborough United v Oxford United
Expected home goals 1.79 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
47.5%
21/19 (2.11)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
29.4%
12/5 (3.40)
The model: Peterborough United v Oxford United
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.79, Oxford United 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Oxford United goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 47.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 29.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Peterborough United v Barnsley
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
48.9%
24/23 (2.04)
Draw
24.6%
49/16 (4.06)
Away
26.5%
25/9 (3.78)
The model: Peterborough United v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.63, Barnsley 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.7 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 48.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 26.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
