League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Barnsley
23rd on points, with 9. 17th on season xG difference. 12 league matches, 16.81 xG for, 21.61 against, goal difference -10.
- Season xGD
- -4.80
- GF minus xG
- -4.81
- Last 10 xGD
- -3.33
- xG per match
- 1.40
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 12 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.40
- xG against / match
- 1.80
- xGD / match
- -0.40
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.50
- xG against / match
- 1.84
- xGD / match
- -0.33
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.32
- xG against / match
- 2.12
- xGD / match
- -0.80
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.02 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.27. Away attack 0.90 from 6 away matches. Away defence 1.00.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Wigan Athletic v Barnsley, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 40.4% (34/23), draw 23.9% (35/11), away 35.7% (9/5). Expected home goals 1.59, expected away goals 1.48. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
Home side
Wigan Athletic
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.61
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.78
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.62
- Venue attack rating
- 1.02
- Venue defence rating
- 1.17
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wigan Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.66 for · 1.15 against
31 Oct · Home
Bromley3–2xG 3.03 for · 1.81 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 1.31 for · 2.93 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.50 for · 2.45 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.25 for · 1.85 against
Away side
Barnsley
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.80
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Away
Reading1–2xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against
20 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Wigan Athletic expected goals 1.59, Barnsley 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wigan Athletic goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Wigan Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 40.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Away
Reading1–2xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against
20 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.18 for · 2.40 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.99 against
5 Sept · Home
Stevenage1–5xG 1.79 for · 1.98 against
2 Sept · Home
Blackpool2–1xG 2.43 for · 2.08 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 2.13 for · 0.62 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.45 for · 1.82 against
15 Aug · Home
Bromley0–1xG 1.32 for · 1.42 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Oxford United | 1-1 | 0.89 | 2.79 | +0.11 |
| 24 Oct | A | Reading | 1-2 | 1.03 | 1.34 | -0.03 |
| 20 Oct | A | Luton Town | 1-2 | 1.14 | 2.71 | -0.14 |
| 17 Oct | H | Cambridge United | 1-2 | 2.10 | 1.55 | -1.10 |
| 10 Oct | A | Stockport County | 1-3 | 1.58 | 1.91 | -0.58 |
| 19 Sept | H | Leicester City | 1-1 | 1.18 | 2.40 | -0.18 |
| 12 Sept | A | Plymouth Argyle | 0-3 | 0.77 | 0.99 | -0.77 |
| 5 Sept | H | Stevenage | 1-5 | 1.79 | 1.98 | -0.79 |
| 2 Sept | H | Blackpool | 2-1 | 2.43 | 2.08 | -0.43 |
| 29 Aug | A | Leyton Orient | 3-1 | 2.13 | 0.62 | +0.87 |
| 22 Aug | A | Doncaster Rovers | 0-0 | 0.45 | 1.82 | -0.45 |
| 15 Aug | H | Bromley | 0-1 | 1.32 | 1.42 | -1.32 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48
Home
40.4%
34/23 (2.48)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
The model: Wigan Athletic v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
Wigan Athletic expected goals 1.59, Barnsley 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wigan Athletic goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Wigan Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 40.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 20 Nov, 20:00 · Home
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97
Home
34.6%
17/9 (2.89)
Draw
21.4%
11/3 (4.66)
Away
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
The model: Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnsley expected goals 1.74, Sheffield Wednesday 1.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Barnsley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 34.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.4%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 71.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
50.6%
23/24 (1.98)
Draw
24.9%
3/1 (4.01)
Away
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
The model: Bradford City v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.60, Barnsley 1.04: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 50.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.9%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 24.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
30.9%
38/17 (3.23)
Draw
25.4%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
43.7%
9/7 (2.29)
The model: AFC Wimbledon v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.23, Barnsley 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| AFC Wimbledon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 30.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 43.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Barnsley v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.74
Home
31.2%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
23.3%
56/17 (4.29)
Away
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
The model: Barnsley v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnsley expected goals 1.41, Wycombe Wanderers 1.74: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Barnsley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 31.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 45.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
