League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Mansfield Town
11th on points, with 19. 6th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 21.73 xG for, 17.02 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +4.71
- GF minus xG
- -1.73
- Last 10 xGD
- +4.21
- xG per match
- 1.67
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.67
- xG against / match
- 1.31
- xGD / match
- +0.36
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.74
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- +0.42
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.14
- xG against / match
- 1.08
- xGD / match
- +1.06
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.13 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.89. Away attack 1.03 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.96.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.5% (26/17), draw 24.1% (22/7), away 36.4% (7/4). Expected home goals 1.55, expected away goals 1.48. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Home side
Mansfield Town
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.91
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.14
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.06
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Mansfield Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.15 for · 1.66 against
31 Oct · Home
Notts County0–2xG 1.27 for · 1.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Blackpool4–1xG 2.33 for · 1.21 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 0.57 against
15 Oct · Home
xG 3.77 for · 0.74 against
Away side
Milton Keynes Dons
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.85
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.24
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.19
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.55, Milton Keynes Dons 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 39.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Mansfield Town’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 1.15 for · 1.66 against
31 Oct · Home
Notts County0–2xG 1.27 for · 1.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Blackpool4–1xG 2.33 for · 1.21 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 0.57 against
15 Oct · Home
xG 3.77 for · 0.74 against
10 Oct · Home
Bromley2–1xG 2.45 for · 0.88 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.87 for · 0.85 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.86 for · 1.36 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 0.49 for · 1.20 against
2 Sept · Away
Reading0–5xG 1.36 for · 3.30 against
30 Aug · Home
Luton Town5–2xG 1.65 for · 1.39 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.39 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.44 for · 1.06 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov | A | Wigan Athletic | 0-0 | 1.15 | 1.66 | -1.15 |
| 31 Oct | H | Notts County | 0-2 | 1.27 | 1.41 | -1.27 |
| 24 Oct | A | Blackpool | 4-1 | 2.33 | 1.21 | +1.67 |
| 20 Oct | A | AFC Wimbledon | 3-0 | 1.84 | 0.57 | +1.16 |
| 15 Oct | H | Oxford United | 1-1 | 3.77 | 0.74 | -2.77 |
| 10 Oct | H | Bromley | 2-1 | 2.45 | 0.88 | -0.45 |
| 19 Sept | A | Burton Albion | 2-2 | 1.87 | 0.85 | +0.13 |
| 12 Sept | H | Huddersfield Town | 0-0 | 0.86 | 1.36 | -0.86 |
| 5 Sept | A | Bradford City | 0-1 | 0.49 | 1.20 | -0.49 |
| 2 Sept | A | Reading | 0-5 | 1.36 | 3.30 | -1.36 |
| 30 Aug | H | Luton Town | 5-2 | 1.65 | 1.39 | +3.35 |
| 22 Aug | A | Peterborough United | 1-2 | 1.25 | 1.39 | -0.25 |
| 15 Aug | H | Doncaster Rovers | 2-1 | 1.44 | 1.06 | +0.56 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48
Home
39.5%
26/17 (2.53)
Draw
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
36.4%
7/4 (2.75)
The model: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.55, Milton Keynes Dons 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 39.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Leicester City v Mansfield Town
Expected home goals 1.79 · expected away goals 1.42
Home
46.6%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
23.0%
47/14 (4.36)
Away
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
The model: Leicester City v Mansfield Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Leicester City expected goals 1.79, Mansfield Town 1.42: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leicester City goals down, Mansfield Town goals across.
| Leicester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 46.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.0%
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 30.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Mansfield Town v Stockport County
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.73
Home
31.1%
51/23 (3.22)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
The model: Mansfield Town v Stockport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.39, Stockport County 1.73: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Stockport County goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 31.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 45.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Mansfield Town v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.56 · expected away goals 1.22
Home
45.3%
29/24 (2.21)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.01)
Away
29.7%
45/19 (3.37)
The model: Mansfield Town v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.56, Wycombe Wanderers 1.22: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 45.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 29.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 19 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Plymouth Argyle v Mansfield Town
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.38
Home
36.4%
7/4 (2.75)
Draw
25.7%
55/19 (3.90)
Away
37.9%
18/11 (2.64)
The model: Plymouth Argyle v Mansfield Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Plymouth Argyle expected goals 1.35, Mansfield Town 1.38: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Plymouth Argyle goals down, Mansfield Town goals across.
| Plymouth Argyle goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.0 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 36.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.7%
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 37.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
