League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Notts County
17th on points, with 14. 15th on season xG difference. 12 league matches, 13.65 xG for, 14.85 against, goal difference -1.
- Season xGD
- -1.20
- GF minus xG
- -0.65
- Last 10 xGD
- -1.55
- xG per match
- 1.14
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 12 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.14
- xG against / match
- 1.24
- xGD / match
- -0.10
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.07
- xG against / match
- 1.23
- xGD / match
- -0.15
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.97
- xG against / match
- 1.49
- xGD / match
- -0.51
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.92 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.81. Away attack 0.79 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.98.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Notts County v Stevenage, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 45.5% (6/5), draw 27.0% (62/23), away 27.5% (37/14). Expected home goals 1.39, expected away goals 1.01. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Notts County v Stevenage
Home side
Notts County
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.37
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.51
- Venue attack rating
- 0.92
- Venue defence rating
- 0.81
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Notts County’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.41 for · 1.27 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.43 for · 2.73 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.45 for · 0.25 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.42 for · 0.87 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.56 for · 1.35 against
Away side
Stevenage
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.08
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stevenage’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 2.49 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.53 for · 2.41 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.90 for · 1.38 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 2.26 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 2.36 for · 0.25 against
Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.01.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.39, Stevenage 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Stevenage goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Notts County’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.41 for · 1.27 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.43 for · 2.73 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.45 for · 0.25 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.42 for · 0.87 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.56 for · 1.35 against
19 Sept · Away
Reading0–2xG 0.58 for · 2.44 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.49 for · 0.50 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.44 for · 1.57 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 0.85 for · 1.12 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 2.08 for · 0.16 against
22 Aug · Away
Luton Town2–2xG 0.76 for · 1.85 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 2.18 for · 0.74 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Mansfield Town | 2-0 | 1.41 | 1.27 | +0.59 |
| 24 Oct | H | Stockport County | 1-1 | 0.43 | 2.73 | +0.57 |
| 20 Oct | H | Sheffield Wednesday | 2-0 | 2.45 | 0.25 | -0.45 |
| 17 Oct | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 0-2 | 0.42 | 0.87 | -0.42 |
| 10 Oct | H | Oxford United | 1-2 | 0.56 | 1.35 | +0.44 |
| 19 Sept | A | Reading | 0-2 | 0.58 | 2.44 | -0.58 |
| 12 Sept | H | Bradford City | 0-1 | 0.49 | 0.50 | -0.49 |
| 5 Sept | A | Huddersfield Town | 1-1 | 1.44 | 1.57 | -0.44 |
| 1 Sept | A | Doncaster Rovers | 1-1 | 0.85 | 1.12 | +0.15 |
| 29 Aug | H | Burton Albion | 2-1 | 2.08 | 0.16 | -0.08 |
| 22 Aug | A | Luton Town | 2-2 | 0.76 | 1.85 | +1.24 |
| 15 Aug | H | Leicester City | 1-1 | 2.18 | 0.74 | -1.18 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
Draw
27.0%
62/23 (3.70)
Away
27.5%
37/14 (3.64)
The model: Notts County v Stevenage
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.39, Stevenage 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Stevenage goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 45.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 27.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.25
Home
47.8%
12/11 (2.09)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
28.3%
33/13 (3.54)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.69, Notts County 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Notts County goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 47.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Notts County win, per cent
- 28.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Notts County v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
50.8%
23/24 (1.97)
Draw
26.2%
45/16 (3.81)
Away
22.9%
47/14 (4.36)
The model: Notts County v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.49, AFC Wimbledon 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 50.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 22.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Notts County v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.45 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.43)
Draw
25.6%
32/11 (3.91)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.00)
The model: Notts County v Plymouth Argyle
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.45, Plymouth Argyle 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.6%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 15 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Peterborough United v Notts County
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 0.99
Home
51.7%
14/15 (1.93)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.00)
Away
23.3%
79/24 (4.29)
The model: Peterborough United v Notts County
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.60, Notts County 0.99: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Notts County goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.9 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 51.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Notts County win, per cent
- 23.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
