League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Oxford United
3rd on points, with 26. 13th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 19.57 xG for, 20.57 against, goal difference +11.
- Season xGD
- -1.00
- GF minus xG
- +2.43
- Last 10 xGD
- +1.49
- xG per match
- 1.51
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.51
- xG against / match
- 1.58
- xGD / match
- -0.08
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.52
- xG against / match
- 1.37
- xGD / match
- +0.15
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.60
- xG against / match
- 1.72
- xGD / match
- -0.12
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.94 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.99. Away attack 1.09 from 6 away matches. Away defence 1.10.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 35.5% (20/11), draw 26.1% (17/6), away 38.4% (8/5). Expected home goals 1.29, expected away goals 1.36. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Home side
Oxford United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.41
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.38
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.94
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oxford United’s side.
Away side
Wycombe Wanderers
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.26
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.16
- Venue attack rating
- 0.98
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wycombe Wanderers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.39 for · 0.66 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.48 for · 1.80 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 0.85 against
17 Oct · Home
Notts County2–0xG 0.87 for · 0.42 against
10 Oct · Home
Luton Town1–4xG 1.96 for · 2.93 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 35.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 9.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Oxford United’s side.
4 Nov · Home
Reading2–0xG 0.57 for · 1.61 against
31 Oct · Away
Barnsley1–1xG 2.79 for · 0.89 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.16 for · 2.53 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.48 for · 1.25 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.85 for · 0.25 against
15 Oct · Away
xG 0.74 for · 3.77 against
10 Oct · Away
Notts County2–1xG 1.35 for · 0.56 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.77 for · 1.36 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.21 for · 0.47 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 2.25 for · 0.99 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.21 for · 3.57 against
22 Aug · Away
Stevenage2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.12 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.83 for · 2.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov | H | Reading | 2-0 | 0.57 | 1.61 | +1.43 |
| 31 Oct | A | Barnsley | 1-1 | 2.79 | 0.89 | -1.79 |
| 27 Oct | H | Stockport County | 1-0 | 2.16 | 2.53 | -1.16 |
| 24 Oct | H | Bradford City | 0-0 | 1.48 | 1.25 | -1.48 |
| 20 Oct | H | Wigan Athletic | 2-1 | 1.85 | 0.25 | +0.15 |
| 15 Oct | A | Mansfield Town | 1-1 | 0.74 | 3.77 | +0.26 |
| 10 Oct | A | Notts County | 2-1 | 1.35 | 0.56 | +0.65 |
| 19 Sept | H | Cambridge United | 1-1 | 0.77 | 1.36 | +0.23 |
| 12 Sept | H | Burton Albion | 3-0 | 1.21 | 0.47 | +1.79 |
| 5 Sept | A | Leicester City | 4-0 | 2.25 | 0.99 | +1.75 |
| 1 Sept | A | Huddersfield Town | 1-3 | 1.21 | 3.57 | -0.21 |
| 22 Aug | A | Stevenage | 2-1 | 1.36 | 1.12 | +0.64 |
| 15 Aug | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 2-2 | 1.83 | 2.20 | +0.17 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
35.5%
20/11 (2.82)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
38.4%
8/5 (2.60)
The model: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 35.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Luton Town v Oxford United
Expected home goals 1.96 · expected away goals 1.17
Home
55.9%
15/19 (1.79)
Draw
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
Away
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
The model: Luton Town v Oxford United
The model
What the expected goals say
Luton Town expected goals 1.96, Oxford United 1.17: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Luton Town goals down, Oxford United goals across.
| Luton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Luton Town win, per cent
- 55.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 22.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.54
Home
39.4%
20/13 (2.54)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
36.9%
12/7 (2.71)
The model: Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.59, Sheffield Wednesday 1.54: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 39.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 36.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Peterborough United v Oxford United
Expected home goals 1.79 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
47.5%
21/19 (2.11)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
29.4%
12/5 (3.40)
The model: Peterborough United v Oxford United
The model
What the expected goals say
Peterborough United expected goals 1.79, Oxford United 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Peterborough United goals down, Oxford United goals across.
| Peterborough United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.4 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 47.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 29.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Oxford United v Blackpool
Expected home goals 1.91 · expected away goals 1.24
Home
53.0%
8/9 (1.89)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
Away
24.7%
64/21 (4.05)
The model: Oxford United v Blackpool
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.91, Blackpool 1.24: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Blackpool goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 53.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 24.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
