League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Wycombe Wanderers
13th on points, with 18. 11th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 18.63 xG for, 18.20 against, goal difference -2.
- Season xGD
- +0.43
- GF minus xG
- +2.37
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.07
- xG per match
- 1.43
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.43
- xG against / match
- 1.40
- xGD / match
- +0.03
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.39
- xG against / match
- 1.39
- xGD / match
- +0.01
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.48
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- +0.16
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.98 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.05. Away attack 0.98 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.88.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 35.5% (20/11), draw 26.1% (17/6), away 38.4% (8/5). Expected home goals 1.29, expected away goals 1.36. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Home side
Oxford United
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.41
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.38
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.12
- Venue attack rating
- 0.94
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oxford United’s side.
Away side
Wycombe Wanderers
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.35
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.26
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.16
- Venue attack rating
- 0.98
- Venue defence rating
- 0.88
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Wycombe Wanderers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.39 for · 0.66 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.48 for · 1.80 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 0.85 against
17 Oct · Home
Notts County2–0xG 0.87 for · 0.42 against
10 Oct · Home
Luton Town1–4xG 1.96 for · 2.93 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 35.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Wycombe Wanderers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.39 for · 0.66 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.48 for · 1.80 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 0.85 against
17 Oct · Home
Notts County2–0xG 0.87 for · 0.42 against
10 Oct · Home
Luton Town1–4xG 1.96 for · 2.93 against
26 Sept · Home
Reading2–2xG 1.96 for · 1.25 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.43 for · 0.44 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.16 for · 0.88 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 1.17 for · 2.14 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 1.28 for · 2.49 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.21 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.89 for · 0.76 against
15 Aug · Away
Blackpool1–1xG 1.29 for · 2.37 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Burton Albion | 2-0 | 1.39 | 0.66 | +0.61 |
| 24 Oct | A | AFC Wimbledon | 1-1 | 1.48 | 1.80 | -0.48 |
| 20 Oct | A | Cambridge United | 2-2 | 1.23 | 0.85 | +0.77 |
| 17 Oct | H | Notts County | 2-0 | 0.87 | 0.42 | +1.13 |
| 10 Oct | H | Luton Town | 1-4 | 1.96 | 2.93 | -0.96 |
| 26 Sept | H | Reading | 2-2 | 1.96 | 1.25 | +0.04 |
| 19 Sept | A | Wigan Athletic | 1-0 | 1.43 | 0.44 | -0.43 |
| 12 Sept | A | Leyton Orient | 3-2 | 1.16 | 0.88 | +1.84 |
| 5 Sept | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 3-3 | 1.17 | 2.14 | +1.83 |
| 1 Sept | H | Sheffield Wednesday | 1-2 | 1.28 | 2.49 | -0.28 |
| 29 Aug | A | Stockport County | 1-5 | 1.52 | 1.21 | -0.52 |
| 22 Aug | H | Plymouth Argyle | 1-1 | 1.89 | 0.76 | -0.89 |
| 15 Aug | A | Blackpool | 1-1 | 1.29 | 2.37 | -0.29 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
35.5%
20/11 (2.82)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
38.4%
8/5 (2.60)
The model: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 35.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Bromley v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 0.81 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
Draw
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
Away
55.9%
15/19 (1.79)
The model: Bromley v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bromley expected goals 0.81, Wycombe Wanderers 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bromley goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Bromley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.4 | 11.4 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 |
- Bromley win, per cent
- 19.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 55.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.2%
- Most likely score
- 0-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Wycombe Wanderers v Bradford City
Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.10
Home
39.8%
35/23 (2.51)
Draw
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
Away
32.4%
48/23 (3.09)
The model: Wycombe Wanderers v Bradford City
The model
What the expected goals say
Wycombe Wanderers expected goals 1.26, Bradford City 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wycombe Wanderers goals down, Bradford City goals across.
| Wycombe Wanderers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.4 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 39.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.8%
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 32.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Barnsley v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.74
Home
31.2%
11/5 (3.20)
Draw
23.3%
56/17 (4.29)
Away
45.5%
6/5 (2.20)
The model: Barnsley v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnsley expected goals 1.41, Wycombe Wanderers 1.74: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Barnsley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.5 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 31.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 45.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Mansfield Town v Wycombe Wanderers
Expected home goals 1.56 · expected away goals 1.22
Home
45.3%
29/24 (2.21)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.01)
Away
29.7%
45/19 (3.37)
The model: Mansfield Town v Wycombe Wanderers
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.56, Wycombe Wanderers 1.22: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 45.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
- 29.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
