League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
AFC Wimbledon
18th on points, with 13. 23rd on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 12.72 xG for, 22.51 against, goal difference -12.
- Season xGD
- -9.79
- GF minus xG
- -3.72
- Last 10 xGD
- -6.27
- xG per match
- 0.98
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.98
- xG against / match
- 1.73
- xGD / match
- -0.75
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.08
- xG against / match
- 1.70
- xGD / match
- -0.63
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.03
- xG against / match
- 2.02
- xGD / match
- -0.99
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.78 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.18. Away attack 0.80 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.03.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 40.5% (25/17), draw 23.9% (51/16), away 35.7% (9/5). Expected home goals 1.60, expected away goals 1.49. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Home side
AFC Wimbledon
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.00
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.84
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.99
- Venue attack rating
- 0.78
- Venue defence rating
- 1.18
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against
Away side
Blackpool
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 1.30
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Blackpool’s side.
1 Nov · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.21 for · 2.33 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.68 for · 0.81 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.80 for · 2.06 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.90 against
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.60, Blackpool 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Blackpool goals across.
| AFC Wimbledon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 40.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.07 for · 1.30 against
17 Sept · Home
xG 1.24 for · 1.06 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.81 for · 2.41 against
7 Sept · Away
Bromley2–0xG 1.22 for · 0.55 against
2 Sept · Away
xG 1.34 for · 0.92 against
30 Aug · Home
xG 1.21 for · 2.96 against
22 Aug · Home
Reading0–0xG 0.37 for · 1.28 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.38 for · 1.24 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Stockport County | 1-2 | 1.44 | 2.79 | -0.44 |
| 24 Oct | H | Wycombe Wanderers | 1-1 | 1.80 | 1.48 | -0.80 |
| 20 Oct | H | Mansfield Town | 0-3 | 0.57 | 1.84 | -0.57 |
| 17 Oct | A | Sheffield Wednesday | 0-5 | 0.38 | 2.70 | -0.38 |
| 10 Oct | A | Plymouth Argyle | 1-2 | 0.89 | 1.98 | +0.11 |
| 26 Sept | A | Cambridge United | 1-1 | 1.07 | 1.30 | -0.07 |
| 17 Sept | H | Milton Keynes Dons | 0-0 | 1.24 | 1.06 | -1.24 |
| 12 Sept | H | Doncaster Rovers | 1-0 | 0.81 | 2.41 | +0.19 |
| 7 Sept | A | Bromley | 2-0 | 1.22 | 0.55 | +0.78 |
| 2 Sept | A | Burton Albion | 1-4 | 1.34 | 0.92 | -0.34 |
| 30 Aug | H | Wigan Athletic | 1-0 | 1.21 | 2.96 | -0.21 |
| 22 Aug | H | Reading | 0-0 | 0.37 | 1.28 | -0.37 |
| 15 Aug | A | Huddersfield Town | 0-3 | 0.38 | 1.24 | -0.38 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49
Home
40.5%
25/17 (2.47)
Draw
23.9%
51/16 (4.19)
Away
35.7%
9/5 (2.80)
The model: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.60, Blackpool 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Blackpool goals across.
| AFC Wimbledon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 40.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 35.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
26.1%
65/23 (3.83)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
The model: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Leyton Orient expected goals 1.35, AFC Wimbledon 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Leyton Orient goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leyton Orient win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
30.9%
38/17 (3.23)
Draw
25.4%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
43.7%
9/7 (2.29)
The model: AFC Wimbledon v Barnsley
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.23, Barnsley 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Barnsley goals across.
| AFC Wimbledon goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 30.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 43.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Notts County v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
50.8%
23/24 (1.97)
Draw
26.2%
45/16 (3.81)
Away
22.9%
47/14 (4.36)
The model: Notts County v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.49, AFC Wimbledon 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 50.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 22.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Bradford City v AFC Wimbledon
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
54.8%
19/23 (1.82)
Draw
24.5%
71/23 (4.09)
Away
20.7%
65/17 (4.82)
The model: Bradford City v AFC Wimbledon
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.65, AFC Wimbledon 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.6 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 54.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
- 20.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
