League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Sheffield Wednesday
9th on points, with 20. 8th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 22.73 xG for, 19.94 against, goal difference +8.
- Season xGD
- +2.79
- GF minus xG
- -0.73
- Last 10 xGD
- -2.22
- xG per match
- 1.75
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.75
- xG against / match
- 1.53
- xGD / match
- +0.21
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.42
- xG against / match
- 1.64
- xGD / match
- -0.22
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.39
- xG against / match
- 1.66
- xGD / match
- -0.28
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.11 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.96. Away attack 1.10 from 6 away matches. Away defence 1.09.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 43.2% (25/19), draw 23.1% (10/3), away 33.8% (47/24). Expected home goals 1.74, expected away goals 1.51. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Home side
Sheffield Wednesday
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.
1 Nov · Home
Blackpool1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against
20 Oct · Away
Notts County0–2xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against
Away side
Plymouth Argyle
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.10
- Venue attack rating
- 1.12
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Plymouth Argyle’s side.
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.
1 Nov · Home
Blackpool1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against
20 Oct · Away
Notts County0–2xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.75 for · 1.87 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.18 for · 1.58 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.82 for · 1.59 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.36 for · 1.97 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 2.49 for · 1.28 against
29 Aug · Home
Bromley7–2xG 4.23 for · 1.58 against
20 Aug · Home
xG 1.49 for · 0.59 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 2.84 for · 1.38 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Nov | H | Blackpool | 1-1 | 0.67 | 1.07 | +0.33 |
| 27 Oct | H | Cambridge United | 1-1 | 1.72 | 2.39 | -0.72 |
| 24 Oct | A | Doncaster Rovers | 0-2 | 1.23 | 1.81 | -1.23 |
| 20 Oct | A | Notts County | 0-2 | 0.25 | 2.45 | -0.25 |
| 17 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 5-0 | 2.70 | 0.38 | +2.30 |
| 10 Oct | A | Huddersfield Town | 2-2 | 1.75 | 1.87 | +0.25 |
| 19 Sept | H | Stockport County | 0-0 | 1.18 | 1.58 | -1.18 |
| 12 Sept | H | Wigan Athletic | 0-0 | 0.82 | 1.59 | -0.82 |
| 5 Sept | A | Peterborough United | 2-1 | 1.36 | 1.97 | +0.64 |
| 1 Sept | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 2-1 | 2.49 | 1.28 | -0.49 |
| 29 Aug | H | Bromley | 7-2 | 4.23 | 1.58 | +2.77 |
| 20 Aug | H | Bradford City | 0-1 | 1.49 | 0.59 | -1.49 |
| 15 Aug | A | Leyton Orient | 2-1 | 2.84 | 1.38 | -0.84 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.32)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
The model: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 20 Nov, 20:00 · Away
Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97
Home
34.6%
17/9 (2.89)
Draw
21.4%
11/3 (4.66)
Away
43.9%
23/18 (2.28)
The model: Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnsley expected goals 1.74, Sheffield Wednesday 1.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Barnsley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnsley win, per cent
- 34.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.4%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 71.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.53 · expected away goals 1.40
Home
40.7%
19/13 (2.46)
Draw
24.6%
43/14 (4.07)
Away
34.8%
15/8 (2.88)
The model: Stevenage v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Stevenage expected goals 1.53, Sheffield Wednesday 1.40: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stevenage goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Stevenage goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 11.4 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stevenage win, per cent
- 40.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.6%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 34.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Sheffield Wednesday v Reading
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
31.3%
46/21 (3.19)
Draw
24.5%
40/13 (4.08)
Away
44.2%
24/19 (2.26)
The model: Sheffield Wednesday v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.30, Reading 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Reading goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Reading win, per cent
- 44.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.54
Home
39.4%
20/13 (2.54)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
36.9%
12/7 (2.71)
The model: Oxford United v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Oxford United expected goals 1.59, Sheffield Wednesday 1.54: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Oxford United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oxford United win, per cent
- 39.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 36.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
