League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Plymouth Argyle
5th on points, with 23. 10th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 21.04 xG for, 20.11 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +0.93
- GF minus xG
- -0.04
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.95
- xG per match
- 1.50
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.50
- xG against / match
- 1.44
- xGD / match
- +0.07
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.70
- xG against / match
- 1.40
- xGD / match
- +0.29
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.40
- xG against / match
- 1.50
- xGD / match
- -0.10
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.90 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.95. Away attack 1.12 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.00.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 43.2% (25/19), draw 23.1% (10/3), away 33.8% (47/24). Expected home goals 1.74, expected away goals 1.51. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Home side
Sheffield Wednesday
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.83
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.
1 Nov · Home
Blackpool1–1xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against
20 Oct · Away
Notts County0–2xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against
Away side
Plymouth Argyle
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.10
- Venue attack rating
- 1.12
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Plymouth Argyle’s side.
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Plymouth Argyle’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Reading0–0xG 0.86 for · 1.09 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.45 for · 1.41 against
20 Oct · Away
Stevenage0–3xG 1.38 for · 1.90 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 0.76 for · 2.70 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.98 for · 0.89 against
3 Oct · Away
xG 1.96 for · 1.00 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 2.52 for · 0.99 against
19 Sept · Away
Blackpool4–2xG 2.77 for · 0.66 against
12 Sept · Home
Barnsley3–0xG 0.99 for · 0.77 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 2.32 for · 2.63 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.15 for · 1.49 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.22 for · 0.88 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.76 for · 1.89 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 0.92 for · 1.81 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Reading | 0-0 | 0.86 | 1.09 | -0.86 |
| 24 Oct | A | Cambridge United | 3-2 | 1.45 | 1.41 | +1.55 |
| 20 Oct | A | Stevenage | 0-3 | 1.38 | 1.90 | -1.38 |
| 17 Oct | H | Huddersfield Town | 0-2 | 0.76 | 2.70 | -0.76 |
| 10 Oct | H | AFC Wimbledon | 2-1 | 1.98 | 0.89 | +0.02 |
| 3 Oct | A | Leyton Orient | 2-0 | 1.96 | 1.00 | +0.04 |
| 26 Sept | H | Burton Albion | 0-1 | 2.52 | 0.99 | -2.52 |
| 19 Sept | A | Blackpool | 4-2 | 2.77 | 0.66 | +1.23 |
| 12 Sept | H | Barnsley | 3-0 | 0.99 | 0.77 | +2.01 |
| 5 Sept | A | Doncaster Rovers | 3-2 | 2.32 | 2.63 | +0.68 |
| 1 Sept | A | Leicester City | 0-2 | 1.15 | 1.49 | -1.15 |
| 29 Aug | H | Bradford City | 2-0 | 1.22 | 0.88 | +0.78 |
| 22 Aug | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 1-1 | 0.76 | 1.89 | +0.24 |
| 15 Aug | H | Stockport County | 1-3 | 0.92 | 1.81 | +0.08 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.32)
Draw
23.1%
10/3 (4.33)
Away
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
The model: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.9 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Plymouth Argyle v Peterborough United
Expected home goals 1.62 · expected away goals 1.33
Home
44.3%
29/23 (2.26)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
31.5%
37/17 (3.18)
The model: Plymouth Argyle v Peterborough United
The model
What the expected goals say
Plymouth Argyle expected goals 1.62, Peterborough United 1.33: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Plymouth Argyle goals down, Peterborough United goals across.
| Plymouth Argyle goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 44.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Peterborough United win, per cent
- 31.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Wigan Athletic v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.85
Home
33.6%
47/24 (2.97)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.48)
Away
44.0%
14/11 (2.27)
The model: Wigan Athletic v Plymouth Argyle
The model
What the expected goals say
Wigan Athletic expected goals 1.59, Plymouth Argyle 1.85: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wigan Athletic goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Wigan Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.4 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Wigan Athletic win, per cent
- 33.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 44.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
54.0%
17/20 (1.85)
Draw
22.4%
66/19 (4.47)
Away
23.6%
42/13 (4.23)
The model: Plymouth Argyle v Bromley
The model
What the expected goals say
Plymouth Argyle expected goals 1.90, Bromley 1.19: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Plymouth Argyle goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Plymouth Argyle goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 54.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 23.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Notts County v Plymouth Argyle
Expected home goals 1.45 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.43)
Draw
25.6%
32/11 (3.91)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.00)
The model: Notts County v Plymouth Argyle
The model
What the expected goals say
Notts County expected goals 1.45, Plymouth Argyle 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.
| Notts County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Notts County win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.6%
- Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
