League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Leicester City
10th on points, with 19. 5th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 24.47 xG for, 17.59 against, goal difference +3.
- Season xGD
- +6.88
- GF minus xG
- -2.47
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.89
- xG per match
- 1.88
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.88
- xG against / match
- 1.35
- xGD / match
- +0.53
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.09
- xG against / match
- 1.41
- xGD / match
- +0.69
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.48
- xG against / match
- 1.20
- xGD / match
- +1.28
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.20 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.98. Away attack 1.11 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.92.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Huddersfield Town v Leicester City, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 47.5% (21/19), draw 23.7% (74/23), away 28.8% (52/21). Expected home goals 1.71, expected away goals 1.28. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
Home side
Huddersfield Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.05
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.12
- Venue attack rating
- 1.20
- Venue defence rating
- 0.82
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Huddersfield Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
Luton Town1–1xG 0.91 for · 0.84 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 1.03 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 2.45 for · 0.50 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.72 for · 0.92 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 2.70 for · 0.76 against
Away side
Leicester City
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.28
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 0.92
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leicester City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–2xG 2.49 for · 1.23 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.93 for · 1.31 against
24 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.27 for · 1.65 against
20 Oct · Away
Bromley4–0xG 2.96 for · 0.21 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.60 for · 1.08 against
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Huddersfield Town expected goals 1.71, Leicester City 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Huddersfield Town goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Huddersfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Huddersfield Town win, per cent
- 47.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 28.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Leicester City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Stevenage2–2xG 2.49 for · 1.23 against
27 Oct · Home
xG 2.93 for · 1.31 against
24 Oct · Away
Luton Town1–2xG 1.27 for · 1.65 against
20 Oct · Away
Bromley4–0xG 2.96 for · 0.21 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.60 for · 1.08 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 2.60 for · 1.70 against
19 Sept · Away
Barnsley1–1xG 2.40 for · 1.18 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.21 for · 2.29 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 0.99 for · 2.25 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 1.49 for · 1.15 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 1.48 for · 0.55 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.31 for · 0.81 against
15 Aug · Away
Notts County1–1xG 0.74 for · 2.18 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Stevenage | 2-2 | 2.49 | 1.23 | -0.49 |
| 27 Oct | H | Wigan Athletic | 3-0 | 2.93 | 1.31 | +0.07 |
| 24 Oct | A | Luton Town | 1-2 | 1.27 | 1.65 | -0.27 |
| 20 Oct | A | Bromley | 4-0 | 2.96 | 0.21 | +1.04 |
| 17 Oct | H | Doncaster Rovers | 2-1 | 2.60 | 1.08 | -0.60 |
| 10 Oct | H | Peterborough United | 1-3 | 2.60 | 1.70 | -1.60 |
| 19 Sept | A | Barnsley | 1-1 | 2.40 | 1.18 | -1.40 |
| 12 Sept | A | Stockport County | 4-3 | 1.21 | 2.29 | +2.79 |
| 5 Sept | H | Oxford United | 0-4 | 0.99 | 2.25 | -0.99 |
| 1 Sept | H | Plymouth Argyle | 2-0 | 1.49 | 1.15 | +0.51 |
| 29 Aug | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 0-0 | 1.48 | 0.55 | -1.48 |
| 22 Aug | H | Burton Albion | 1-2 | 1.31 | 0.81 | -0.31 |
| 15 Aug | A | Notts County | 1-1 | 0.74 | 2.18 | +0.26 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28
Home
47.5%
21/19 (2.10)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
28.8%
52/21 (3.48)
The model: Huddersfield Town v Leicester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Huddersfield Town expected goals 1.71, Leicester City 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Huddersfield Town goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Huddersfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Huddersfield Town win, per cent
- 47.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 28.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Blackpool v Leicester City
Expected home goals 1.38 · expected away goals 1.75
Home
30.4%
55/24 (3.29)
Draw
23.3%
23/7 (4.29)
Away
46.3%
22/19 (2.16)
The model: Blackpool v Leicester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Blackpool expected goals 1.38, Leicester City 1.75: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackpool goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Blackpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Blackpool win, per cent
- 30.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 46.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Leicester City v Mansfield Town
Expected home goals 1.79 · expected away goals 1.42
Home
46.6%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
23.0%
47/14 (4.36)
Away
30.5%
41/18 (3.28)
The model: Leicester City v Mansfield Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Leicester City expected goals 1.79, Mansfield Town 1.42: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leicester City goals down, Mansfield Town goals across.
| Leicester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 46.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.0%
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 30.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Cambridge United v Leicester City
Expected home goals 1.31 · expected away goals 1.55
Home
32.3%
44/21 (3.10)
Draw
24.7%
73/24 (4.04)
Away
43.0%
4/3 (2.33)
The model: Cambridge United v Leicester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Cambridge United expected goals 1.31, Leicester City 1.55: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Leicester City goals across.
| Cambridge United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.6 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 32.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 43.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Thu 10 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Leicester City v Sheffield Wednesday
Expected home goals 2.04 · expected away goals 1.52
Home
49.8%
1/1 (2.01)
Draw
21.3%
70/19 (4.68)
Away
28.8%
42/17 (3.47)
The model: Leicester City v Sheffield Wednesday
The model
What the expected goals say
Leicester City expected goals 2.04, Sheffield Wednesday 1.52: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leicester City goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.
| Leicester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 6.1 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.1 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Leicester City win, per cent
- 49.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.3%
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 28.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 69.1%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
