League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Milton Keynes Dons
12th on points, with 18. 7th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 23.75 xG for, 19.25 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +4.50
- GF minus xG
- -1.75
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.80
- xG per match
- 1.83
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.83
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- +0.35
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.95
- xG against / match
- 1.37
- xGD / match
- +0.58
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.09
- xG against / match
- 1.34
- xGD / match
- +0.76
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.10 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.12. Away attack 1.19 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.88.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 54.9% (14/17), draw 22.6% (65/19), away 22.5% (69/20). Expected home goals 1.86, expected away goals 1.11. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Home side
Milton Keynes Dons
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.68
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
Away side
Burton Albion
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.75
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.76
- Venue attack rating
- 0.70
- Venue defence rating
- 1.08
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against
27 Oct · Home
Bromley4–1xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against
24 Oct · Away
Stevenage1–0xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against
20 Oct · Away
Blackpool0–2xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against
17 Oct · Home
Luton Town2–1xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Reading1–5xG 0.44 for · 3.64 against
17 Sept · Away
xG 1.06 for · 1.24 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.24 for · 1.21 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 2.14 for · 1.17 against
2 Sept · Away
xG 2.47 for · 2.02 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 0.55 for · 1.48 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.54 for · 2.28 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 2.20 for · 1.83 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Doncaster Rovers | 6-1 | 4.58 | 1.06 | +1.42 |
| 27 Oct | H | Bromley | 4-1 | 2.95 | 0.57 | +1.05 |
| 24 Oct | A | Stevenage | 1-0 | 2.41 | 0.53 | -1.41 |
| 20 Oct | A | Blackpool | 0-2 | 0.81 | 0.68 | -0.81 |
| 17 Oct | H | Luton Town | 2-1 | 1.36 | 1.54 | +0.64 |
| 10 Oct | H | Reading | 1-5 | 0.44 | 3.64 | +0.56 |
| 17 Sept | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0-0 | 1.06 | 1.24 | -1.06 |
| 12 Sept | H | Peterborough United | 1-1 | 1.24 | 1.21 | -0.24 |
| 5 Sept | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 3-3 | 2.14 | 1.17 | +0.86 |
| 2 Sept | A | Wigan Athletic | 1-3 | 2.47 | 2.02 | -1.47 |
| 29 Aug | H | Leicester City | 0-0 | 0.55 | 1.48 | -0.55 |
| 22 Aug | H | Huddersfield Town | 1-1 | 1.54 | 2.28 | -0.54 |
| 15 Aug | A | Oxford United | 2-2 | 2.20 | 1.83 | -0.20 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11
Home
54.9%
14/17 (1.82)
Draw
22.6%
65/19 (4.42)
Away
22.5%
69/20 (4.45)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.6 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 54.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.6%
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 22.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48
Home
39.5%
26/17 (2.53)
Draw
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
36.4%
7/4 (2.75)
The model: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons
The model
What the expected goals say
Mansfield Town expected goals 1.55, Milton Keynes Dons 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Mansfield Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Mansfield Town win, per cent
- 39.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.25
Home
47.8%
12/11 (2.09)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
28.3%
33/13 (3.54)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Notts County
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.69, Notts County 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Notts County goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 47.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Notts County win, per cent
- 28.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Bradford City v Milton Keynes Dons
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
38.4%
37/23 (2.61)
Draw
25.4%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
36.2%
37/21 (2.76)
The model: Bradford City v Milton Keynes Dons
The model
What the expected goals say
Bradford City expected goals 1.41, Milton Keynes Dons 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.
| Bradford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.5 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Bradford City win, per cent
- 38.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 36.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Milton Keynes Dons v Cambridge United
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 1.60
Home
42.1%
11/8 (2.38)
Draw
22.7%
17/5 (4.40)
Away
35.2%
35/19 (2.84)
The model: Milton Keynes Dons v Cambridge United
The model
What the expected goals say
Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.76, Cambridge United 1.60: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Cambridge United goals across.
| Milton Keynes Dons goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.6 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
- 42.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Cambridge United win, per cent
- 35.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
