League One · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Reading
6th on points, with 22. 3rd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 26.91 xG for, 15.37 against, goal difference +10.
- Season xGD
- +11.54
- GF minus xG
- -1.91
- Last 10 xGD
- +5.74
- xG per match
- 1.92
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.92
- xG against / match
- 1.10
- xGD / match
- +0.82
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.72
- xG against / match
- 1.15
- xGD / match
- +0.57
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.82
- xG against / match
- 1.17
- xGD / match
- +0.64
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.19 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.93. Away attack 1.18 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.75.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Stockport County v Reading, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 34.2% (27/14), draw 23.6% (71/22), away 42.2% (26/19). Expected home goals 1.47, expected away goals 1.65. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Stockport County v Reading
Home side
Stockport County
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.40
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against
27 Oct · Away
xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against
24 Oct · Away
Notts County1–1xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against
17 Oct · Home
Bromley1–0xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against
Away side
Reading
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.64
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.75
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 34.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 42.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Reading’s side.
4 Nov · Away
xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against
24 Oct · Home
Barnsley2–1xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against
21 Oct · Home
xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 3.64 for · 0.44 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 0.62 for · 0.94 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.25 for · 1.96 against
19 Sept · Home
Notts County2–0xG 2.44 for · 0.58 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.99 for · 0.94 against
5 Sept · Home
Blackpool3–1xG 3.52 for · 0.53 against
2 Sept · Home
xG 3.30 for · 1.36 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.28 for · 0.37 against
15 Aug · Home
Luton Town3–4xG 1.61 for · 1.65 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 Nov | A | Oxford United | 0-2 | 1.61 | 0.57 | -1.61 |
| 31 Oct | A | Plymouth Argyle | 0-0 | 1.09 | 0.86 | -1.09 |
| 24 Oct | H | Barnsley | 2-1 | 1.34 | 1.03 | +0.66 |
| 21 Oct | H | Leyton Orient | 1-0 | 1.42 | 2.62 | -0.42 |
| 17 Oct | A | Wigan Athletic | 0-1 | 1.80 | 1.52 | -1.80 |
| 10 Oct | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 5-1 | 3.64 | 0.44 | +1.36 |
| 3 Oct | H | Bradford City | 1-1 | 0.62 | 0.94 | +0.38 |
| 26 Sept | A | Wycombe Wanderers | 2-2 | 1.25 | 1.96 | +0.75 |
| 19 Sept | H | Notts County | 2-0 | 2.44 | 0.58 | -0.44 |
| 12 Sept | A | Cambridge United | 1-2 | 1.99 | 0.94 | -0.99 |
| 5 Sept | H | Blackpool | 3-1 | 3.52 | 0.53 | -0.52 |
| 2 Sept | H | Mansfield Town | 5-0 | 3.30 | 1.36 | +1.70 |
| 22 Aug | A | AFC Wimbledon | 0-0 | 1.28 | 0.37 | -1.28 |
| 15 Aug | H | Luton Town | 3-4 | 1.61 | 1.65 | +1.39 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Stockport County v Reading
Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65
Home
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
Draw
23.6%
71/22 (4.23)
Away
42.2%
26/19 (2.37)
The model: Stockport County v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.
| Stockport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Stockport County win, per cent
- 34.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 42.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
66.9%
1/2 (1.49)
Draw
17.4%
71/15 (5.73)
Away
15.6%
124/23 (6.39)
The model: Reading v Bromley
The model
What the expected goals say
Reading expected goals 2.51, Bromley 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Bromley goals across.
| Reading goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Reading win, per cent
- 66.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 17.4%
- Bromley win, per cent
- 15.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Sheffield Wednesday v Reading
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
31.3%
46/21 (3.19)
Draw
24.5%
40/13 (4.08)
Away
44.2%
24/19 (2.26)
The model: Sheffield Wednesday v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.30, Reading 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Reading goals across.
| Sheffield Wednesday goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
- 31.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Reading win, per cent
- 44.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Reading v Doncaster Rovers
Expected home goals 2.24 · expected away goals 1.25
Home
59.7%
15/22 (1.68)
Draw
19.8%
89/22 (5.04)
Away
20.5%
31/8 (4.88)
The model: Reading v Doncaster Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Reading expected goals 2.24, Doncaster Rovers 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Doncaster Rovers goals across.
| Reading goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
- Reading win, per cent
- 59.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 19.8%
- Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
- 20.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.7%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
21.7%
76/21 (4.62)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
54.8%
19/23 (1.83)
The model: Burton Albion v Reading
The model
What the expected goals say
Burton Albion expected goals 1.01, Reading 1.75: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Reading goals across.
| Burton Albion goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.2 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 5.6 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Burton Albion win, per cent
- 21.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Reading win, per cent
- 54.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
