P332xgform
Season 2026/2027. English football, all four divisions.A front door for The Stat Man
xgform
Friday, 13 November 2026Sports FinalChecked 14:38

2026/2027 · matchweek 14 · provider tag opta

League One xG form

Small sample. Six matches will swing on a penalty and a deflection. Read the order as a recent window, not as a ranking with any authority.

Rank · clubxGD
  1. 1
    Stockport County
    +9.36
    6 played · +1.56 / match
    Stockport County: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    2
    xG for / against
    15.58 / 6.22
    Goals for / against
    9 / 4
    Goals minus xG
    -6.58
    Home xG for / against
    2.15 / 1.14 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    3.04 / 0.93 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  2. 2
    Leicester City
    +7.67
    6 played · +1.28 / match
    Leicester City: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    10
    xG for / against
    14.85 / 7.18
    Goals for / against
    13 / 8
    Goals minus xG
    -1.85
    Home xG for / against
    2.66 / 1.33 (4 played)
    Away xG for / against
    2.12 / 0.93 (2 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  3. 3
    Huddersfield Town
    +6.71
    6 played · +1.12 / match
    Huddersfield Town: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    1
    xG for / against
    12.51 / 5.80
    Goals for / against
    14 / 5
    Goals minus xG
    +1.49
    Home xG for / against
    1.99 / 1.00 (4 played)
    Away xG for / against
    2.28 / 0.90 (2 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  4. 4
    Mansfield Town
    +6.34
    6 played · +1.06 / match
    Mansfield Town: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    11
    xG for / against
    12.81 / 6.47
    Goals for / against
    10 / 5
    Goals minus xG
    -2.81
    Home xG for / against
    2.50 / 1.01 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.77 / 1.15 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  5. 5
    Milton Keynes Dons
    +4.53
    6 played · +0.76 / match
    Milton Keynes Dons: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    12
    xG for / against
    12.55 / 8.02
    Goals for / against
    14 / 10
    Goals minus xG
    +1.45
    Home xG for / against
    2.33 / 1.70 (4 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.61 / 0.60 (2 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  6. 6
    Reading
    +3.86
    6 played · +0.64 / match
    Reading: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    6
    xG for / against
    10.90 / 7.04
    Goals for / against
    8 / 5
    Goals minus xG
    -2.90
    Home xG for / against
    1.38 / 1.83 (2 played)
    Away xG for / against
    2.04 / 0.85 (4 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  7. 7
    Luton Town
    +3.60
    6 played · +0.60 / match
    Luton Town: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    4
    xG for / against
    10.71 / 7.11
    Goals for / against
    11 / 6
    Goals minus xG
    +0.29
    Home xG for / against
    2.40 / 1.25 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.17 / 1.12 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  8. 8
    Bradford City
    +1.05
    6 played · +0.17 / match
    Bradford City: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    7
    xG for / against
    8.14 / 7.09
    Goals for / against
    3 / 4
    Goals minus xG
    -5.14
    Home xG for / against
    1.49 / 1.08 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.23 / 1.29 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  9. 9
    Wycombe Wanderers
    +0.98
    6 played · +0.16 / match
    Wycombe Wanderers: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    13
    xG for / against
    8.89 / 7.91
    Goals for / against
    10 / 9
    Goals minus xG
    +1.11
    Home xG for / against
    1.54 / 1.31 (4 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.35 / 1.32 (2 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  10. 10
    Cambridge United
    +0.97
    6 played · +0.16 / match
    Cambridge United: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    8
    xG for / against
    9.93 / 8.96
    Goals for / against
    8 / 10
    Goals minus xG
    -1.93
    Home xG for / against
    1.39 / 1.11 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.92 / 1.87 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  11. 11
    Peterborough UnitedGoals behind xG
    +0.33
    6 played · +0.06 / match
    Peterborough United: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    22
    xG for / against
    10.21 / 9.88
    Goals for / against
    7 / 11
    Goals minus xG
    -3.21
    Home xG for / against
    2.12 / 1.10 (2 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.50 / 1.92 (4 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  12. 12
    Leyton OrientConceding fewer than xG
    -0.10
    6 played · -0.02 / match
    Leyton Orient: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    14
    xG for / against
    8.69 / 8.79
    Goals for / against
    6 / 5
    Goals minus xG
    -2.69
    Home xG for / against
    1.62 / 1.53 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.28 / 1.40 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  13. 13
    Stevenage
    -0.51
    6 played · -0.08 / match
    Stevenage: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    16
    xG for / against
    8.65 / 9.16
    Goals for / against
    6 / 6
    Goals minus xG
    -2.65
    Home xG for / against
    1.60 / 1.35 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.29 / 1.71 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  14. 14
    Plymouth Argyle
    -0.60
    6 played · -0.10 / match
    Plymouth Argyle: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    5
    xG for / against
    8.39 / 8.99
    Goals for / against
    7 / 8
    Goals minus xG
    -1.39
    Home xG for / against
    1.20 / 1.56 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.60 / 1.44 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  15. 15
    Oxford UnitedConceding fewer than xG
    -0.71
    6 played · -0.12 / match
    Oxford United: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    3
    xG for / against
    9.59 / 10.30
    Goals for / against
    7 / 3
    Goals minus xG
    -2.59
    Home xG for / against
    1.52 / 1.41 (4 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.77 / 2.33 (2 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  16. 16
    Sheffield Wednesday
    -1.65
    6 played · -0.28 / match
    Sheffield Wednesday: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    9
    xG for / against
    8.32 / 9.97
    Goals for / against
    9 / 8
    Goals minus xG
    +0.68
    Home xG for / against
    1.70 / 1.28 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.08 / 2.04 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  17. 17
    Notts County
    -3.06
    6 played · -0.51 / match
    Notts County: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    17
    xG for / against
    5.85 / 8.91
    Goals for / against
    6 / 7
    Goals minus xG
    +0.15
    Home xG for / against
    1.15 / 1.44 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.80 / 1.53 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  18. 18
    Wigan AthleticGoals behind xG
    -3.72
    6 played · -0.62 / match
    Wigan Athletic: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    21
    xG for / against
    8.27 / 11.99
    Goals for / against
    6 / 9
    Goals minus xG
    -2.27
    Home xG for / against
    2.07 / 1.59 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.69 / 2.41 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  19. 19
    Burton Albion
    -4.53
    6 played · -0.76 / match
    Burton Albion: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    15
    xG for / against
    6.34 / 10.87
    Goals for / against
    5 / 9
    Goals minus xG
    -1.34
    Home xG for / against
    1.18 / 1.88 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.93 / 1.75 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  20. 20
    Barnsley
    -4.78
    6 played · -0.80 / match
    Barnsley: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    23
    xG for / against
    7.92 / 12.70
    Goals for / against
    6 / 11
    Goals minus xG
    -1.92
    Home xG for / against
    1.39 / 2.25 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.25 / 1.99 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  21. 21
    Blackpool
    -5.46
    6 played · -0.91 / match
    Blackpool: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    19
    xG for / against
    5.08 / 10.54
    Goals for / against
    6 / 12
    Goals minus xG
    +0.92
    Home xG for / against
    0.85 / 1.97 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.84 / 1.54 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  22. 22
    AFC Wimbledon
    -5.94
    6 played · -0.99 / match
    AFC Wimbledon: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    18
    xG for / against
    6.15 / 12.09
    Goals for / against
    4 / 14
    Goals minus xG
    -2.15
    Home xG for / against
    1.19 / 1.66 (2 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.94 / 2.19 (4 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  23. 23
    Doncaster Rovers
    -9.99
    6 played · -1.66 / match
    Doncaster Rovers: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    20
    xG for / against
    6.20 / 16.19
    Goals for / against
    6 / 13
    Goals minus xG
    -0.20
    Home xG for / against
    0.90 / 2.06 (3 played)
    Away xG for / against
    1.16 / 3.34 (3 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

  24. 24
    Bromley
    -10.19
    6 played · -1.70 / match
    Bromley: Figures & venue splits
    Season position on points
    24
    xG for / against
    4.48 / 14.67
    Goals for / against
    5 / 15
    Goals minus xG
    +0.52
    Home xG for / against
    0.40 / 2.25 (2 played)
    Away xG for / against
    0.92 / 2.54 (4 played)

    Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.

Last 6 xG form, sorted by total xG difference. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window.
#Club · formxGDxGD / PPosPxGFxGAGFGAGF-xGHomeAway
1Stockport County+9.36+1.562615.586.2294-6.582.15 / 1.143.04 / 0.93
2Leicester City+7.67+1.2810614.857.18138-1.852.66 / 1.332.12 / 0.93
3Huddersfield Town+6.71+1.121612.515.80145+1.491.99 / 1.002.28 / 0.90
4Mansfield Town+6.34+1.0611612.816.47105-2.812.50 / 1.011.77 / 1.15
5Milton Keynes Dons+4.53+0.7612612.558.021410+1.452.33 / 1.701.61 / 0.60
6Reading+3.86+0.646610.907.0485-2.901.38 / 1.832.04 / 0.85
7Luton Town+3.60+0.604610.717.11116+0.292.40 / 1.251.17 / 1.12
8Bradford City+1.05+0.17768.147.0934-5.141.49 / 1.081.23 / 1.29
9Wycombe Wanderers+0.98+0.161368.897.91109+1.111.54 / 1.311.35 / 1.32
10Cambridge United+0.97+0.16869.938.96810-1.931.39 / 1.111.92 / 1.87
11Peterborough UnitedGoals behind xG+0.33+0.0622610.219.88711-3.212.12 / 1.101.50 / 1.92
12Leyton OrientConceding fewer than xG-0.10-0.021468.698.7965-2.691.62 / 1.531.28 / 1.40
13Stevenage-0.51-0.081668.659.1666-2.651.60 / 1.351.29 / 1.71
14Plymouth Argyle-0.60-0.10568.398.9978-1.391.20 / 1.561.60 / 1.44
15Oxford UnitedConceding fewer than xG-0.71-0.12369.5910.3073-2.591.52 / 1.411.77 / 2.33
16Sheffield Wednesday-1.65-0.28968.329.9798+0.681.70 / 1.281.08 / 2.04
17Notts County-3.06-0.511765.858.9167+0.151.15 / 1.440.80 / 1.53
18Wigan AthleticGoals behind xG-3.72-0.622168.2711.9969-2.272.07 / 1.590.69 / 2.41
19Burton Albion-4.53-0.761566.3410.8759-1.341.18 / 1.880.93 / 1.75
20Barnsley-4.78-0.802367.9212.70611-1.921.39 / 2.251.25 / 1.99
21Blackpool-5.46-0.911965.0810.54612+0.920.85 / 1.970.84 / 1.54
22AFC Wimbledon-5.94-0.991866.1512.09414-2.151.19 / 1.660.94 / 2.19
23Doncaster Rovers-9.99-1.662066.2016.19613-0.200.90 / 2.061.16 / 3.34
24Bromley-10.19-1.702464.4814.67515+0.520.40 / 2.250.92 / 2.54

Sorted by total xG difference in this window. xGD / P is the difference per match; compare it alongside P when clubs have played different numbers of games. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window, oldest first. Pos is the season position on points. Home and away are xG for and against per match. Flags use the season, regardless of the selected window. GF-xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth.

xGD
xG for minus xG against. The table is sorted on this total.
xGD / P
xG difference per match. Useful when clubs have played different numbers of games.
Form bars
The latest matches in this window, oldest first. Above the line is positive xGD; below is negative. All clubs use the same scale.
Pos
Season position on points.
P
League matches actually played in this window.
xGF / xGA
Expected goals for and against.
GF / GA
Goals for and against.
GF-xG
Goals minus xG. Positive is more goals than the shots were worth.
Home / Away
xG for / against per match, at home and away.
Flags
Season goals against xG, regardless of the selected window. The Stop Press explains each flag.

Stop Press

Regression flags
  • Oxford United
    • Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 9.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
  • Leyton Orient
    • Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.8 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
  • Wigan Athletic
    • Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 9.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
  • Peterborough United
    • Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 8.8 behind xG across 13 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.

A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.

Home advantage, this season

Home xG average
1.56
Away xG average
1.41

Home sides in the League One are averaging 1.56 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.41. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.

Fair prices from xG

The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.

Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool

Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49

Over 2.5 goals 59.5% (15/22) · both teams to score 61.7% (13/21)

Home

40.5%

25/17 (2.47)

Draw

23.9%

51/16 (4.19)

Away

35.7%

9/5 (2.80)

Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Wimbledon v Blackpool

Home side

AFC Wimbledon

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.00
Venue xG against / match
1.84
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.99
Venue attack rating
0.78
Venue defence rating
1.18

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Stockport County1–2

    xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Wycombe Wanderers1–1

    xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Mansfield Town0–3

    xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Sheffield Wednesday0–5

    xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Plymouth Argyle1–2

    xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against

Away side

Blackpool

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.16
Venue xG against / match
2.35
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.91
Venue attack rating
0.89
Venue defence rating
1.30

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Blackpool’s side.

  1. 1 Nov · Away

    Sheffield Wednesday1–1

    xG 1.07 for · 0.67 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Mansfield Town1–4

    xG 1.21 for · 2.33 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Milton Keynes Dons2–0

    xG 0.68 for · 0.81 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Leyton Orient0–2

    xG 0.80 for · 2.06 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Cambridge United0–1

    xG 0.66 for · 1.90 against

Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.49.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

AFC Wimbledon expected goals 1.60, Blackpool 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Wimbledon goals down, Blackpool goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
AFC Wimbledon goals012345
04.66.85.12.50.90.3
17.310.98.14.01.50.4
25.88.76.53.21.20.4
33.14.63.41.70.60.2
41.21.81.40.70.30.1
50.40.60.40.20.1
AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
40.5%
Draw, per cent
23.9%
Blackpool win, per cent
35.7%
0-0, per cent
4.6%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
59.5%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion

Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11

Over 2.5 goals 57.0% (3/4) · both teams to score 56.6% (13/17)

Home

54.9%

14/17 (1.82)

Draw

22.6%

65/19 (4.42)

Away

22.5%

69/20 (4.45)

Compare teams & see the workings: Milton Keynes Dons v Burton Albion

Home side

Milton Keynes Dons

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.81
Venue xG against / match
1.68
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.76
Venue attack rating
1.10
Venue defence rating
1.12

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Doncaster Rovers6–1

    xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against

  2. 27 Oct · Home

    Bromley4–1

    xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Stevenage1–0

    xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Blackpool0–2

    xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    Luton Town2–1

    xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against

Away side

Burton Albion

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
0.75
Venue xG against / match
1.77
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.76
Venue attack rating
0.70
Venue defence rating
1.08

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Wycombe Wanderers0–2

    xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Leyton Orient2–1

    xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Bradford City0–0

    xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Peterborough United2–2

    xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers0–1

    xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against

Expected home goals 1.86 · expected away goals 1.11.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Milton Keynes Dons expected goals 1.86, Burton Albion 1.11: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Milton Keynes Dons goals down, Burton Albion goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Milton Keynes Dons goals012345
05.15.73.21.20.30.1
19.510.65.92.20.60.1
28.99.95.52.00.60.1
35.56.13.41.30.30.1
42.62.81.60.60.2
51.01.10.60.20.1
Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
54.9%
Draw, per cent
22.6%
Burton Albion win, per cent
22.5%
0-0, per cent
5.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
57.0%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle

Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51

Over 2.5 goals 63.1% (10/17) · both teams to score 64.3% (5/9)

Home

43.2%

25/19 (2.32)

Draw

23.1%

10/3 (4.33)

Away

33.8%

47/24 (2.96)

Compare teams & see the workings: Sheffield Wednesday v Plymouth Argyle

Home side

Sheffield Wednesday

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.83
Venue xG against / match
1.31
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.28
Venue attack rating
1.11
Venue defence rating
0.96

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.

  1. 1 Nov · Home

    Blackpool1–1

    xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against

  2. 27 Oct · Home

    Cambridge United1–1

    xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers0–2

    xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Notts County0–2

    xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    AFC Wimbledon5–0

    xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against

Away side

Plymouth Argyle

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.68
Venue xG against / match
1.57
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.10
Venue attack rating
1.12
Venue defence rating
1.00

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Plymouth Argyle’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Reading0–0

    xG 0.86 for · 1.09 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    Cambridge United3–2

    xG 1.45 for · 1.41 against

  3. 20 Oct · Away

    Stevenage0–3

    xG 1.38 for · 1.90 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Huddersfield Town0–2

    xG 0.76 for · 2.70 against

  5. 10 Oct · Home

    AFC Wimbledon2–1

    xG 1.98 for · 0.89 against

Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.51.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Sheffield Wednesday expected goals 1.74, Plymouth Argyle 1.51: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sheffield Wednesday goals down, Plymouth Argyle goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Sheffield Wednesday goals012345
03.95.94.42.20.80.3
16.710.27.73.91.50.4
25.88.86.73.41.30.4
33.45.13.92.00.70.2
41.52.21.70.80.30.1
50.50.80.60.30.1
Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
43.2%
Draw, per cent
23.1%
Plymouth Argyle win, per cent
33.8%
0-0, per cent
3.9%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
63.1%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Stockport County v Reading

Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65

Over 2.5 goals 60.4% (15/23) · both teams to score 62.2% (14/23)

Home

34.2%

27/14 (2.93)

Draw

23.6%

71/22 (4.23)

Away

42.2%

26/19 (2.37)

Compare teams & see the workings: Stockport County v Reading

Home side

Stockport County

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
2.18
Venue xG against / match
1.40
Last 6 xGD / match
+1.56
Venue attack rating
1.25
Venue defence rating
0.99

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    AFC Wimbledon2–1

    xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against

  2. 27 Oct · Away

    Oxford United0–1

    xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Notts County1–1

    xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers2–0

    xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    Bromley1–0

    xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against

Away side

Reading

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.81
Venue xG against / match
0.95
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.64
Venue attack rating
1.18
Venue defence rating
0.75

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Reading’s side.

  1. 4 Nov · Away

    Oxford United0–2

    xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against

  2. 31 Oct · Away

    Plymouth Argyle0–0

    xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Barnsley2–1

    xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against

  4. 21 Oct · Home

    Leyton Orient1–0

    xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Wigan Athletic0–1

    xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against

Expected home goals 1.47 · expected away goals 1.65.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Stockport County expected goals 1.47, Reading 1.65: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Stockport County goals down, Reading goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Stockport County goals012345
04.47.36.03.31.40.5
16.510.78.84.92.00.7
24.77.96.53.61.50.5
32.33.83.21.80.70.2
40.91.41.20.60.30.1
50.30.40.30.20.1
Stockport County win, per cent
34.2%
Draw, per cent
23.6%
Reading win, per cent
42.2%
0-0, per cent
4.4%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
60.4%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 14 Nov, 15:00

Wigan Athletic v Barnsley

Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48

Over 2.5 goals 59.4% (13/19) · both teams to score 61.6% (5/8)

Home

40.4%

34/23 (2.48)

Draw

23.9%

35/11 (4.18)

Away

35.7%

9/5 (2.80)

Compare teams & see the workings: Wigan Athletic v Barnsley

Home side

Wigan Athletic

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.61
Venue xG against / match
1.78
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.62
Venue attack rating
1.02
Venue defence rating
1.17

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Wigan Athletic’s side.

  1. 3 Nov · Home

    Mansfield Town0–0

    xG 1.66 for · 1.15 against

  2. 31 Oct · Home

    Bromley3–2

    xG 3.03 for · 1.81 against

  3. 27 Oct · Away

    Leicester City0–3

    xG 1.31 for · 2.93 against

  4. 24 Oct · Away

    Huddersfield Town1–2

    xG 0.50 for · 2.45 against

  5. 20 Oct · Away

    Oxford United1–2

    xG 0.25 for · 1.85 against

Away side

Barnsley

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.18
Venue xG against / match
1.57
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.80
Venue attack rating
0.90
Venue defence rating
1.00

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Oxford United1–1

    xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    Reading1–2

    xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against

  3. 20 Oct · Away

    Luton Town1–2

    xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Cambridge United1–2

    xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Stockport County1–3

    xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against

Expected home goals 1.59 · expected away goals 1.48.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Wigan Athletic expected goals 1.59, Barnsley 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Wigan Athletic goals down, Barnsley goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Wigan Athletic goals012345
04.66.95.12.50.90.3
17.310.98.14.01.50.4
25.88.76.43.21.20.4
33.14.63.41.70.60.2
41.21.81.40.70.20.1
50.40.60.40.20.1
Wigan Athletic win, per cent
40.4%
Draw, per cent
23.9%
Barnsley win, per cent
35.7%
0-0, per cent
4.6%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
59.4%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Fri 20 Nov, 20:00

Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday

Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97

Over 2.5 goals 71.6% (2/5) · both teams to score 70.9% (9/22)

Home

34.6%

17/9 (2.89)

Draw

21.4%

11/3 (4.66)

Away

43.9%

23/18 (2.28)

Compare teams & see the workings: Barnsley v Sheffield Wednesday

Home side

Barnsley

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.62
Venue xG against / match
2.04
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.80
Venue attack rating
1.02
Venue defence rating
1.27

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Barnsley’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Oxford United1–1

    xG 0.89 for · 2.79 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    Reading1–2

    xG 1.03 for · 1.34 against

  3. 20 Oct · Away

    Luton Town1–2

    xG 1.14 for · 2.71 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Cambridge United1–2

    xG 2.10 for · 1.55 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Stockport County1–3

    xG 1.58 for · 1.91 against

Away side

Sheffield Wednesday

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.65
Venue xG against / match
1.79
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.28
Venue attack rating
1.10
Venue defence rating
1.09

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Sheffield Wednesday’s side.

  1. 1 Nov · Home

    Blackpool1–1

    xG 0.67 for · 1.07 against

  2. 27 Oct · Home

    Cambridge United1–1

    xG 1.72 for · 2.39 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers0–2

    xG 1.23 for · 1.81 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Notts County0–2

    xG 0.25 for · 2.45 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    AFC Wimbledon5–0

    xG 2.70 for · 0.38 against

Expected home goals 1.74 · expected away goals 1.97.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Barnsley expected goals 1.74, Sheffield Wednesday 1.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnsley goals down, Sheffield Wednesday goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Barnsley goals012345
02.54.84.83.11.50.6
14.38.48.35.42.71.1
23.77.37.24.72.30.9
32.14.24.22.71.30.5
40.91.81.81.20.60.2
50.30.60.60.40.20.1
Barnsley win, per cent
34.6%
Draw, per cent
21.4%
Sheffield Wednesday win, per cent
43.9%
0-0, per cent
2.5%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
71.6%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 12:30

Blackpool v Wigan Athletic

Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.49

Over 2.5 goals 62.0% (11/18) · both teams to score 63.4% (11/19)

Home

43.2%

25/19 (2.31)

Draw

23.3%

56/17 (4.30)

Away

33.5%

2/1 (2.98)

Compare teams & see the workings: Blackpool v Wigan Athletic

Home side

Blackpool

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.46
Venue xG against / match
1.67
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.91
Venue attack rating
0.96
Venue defence rating
1.11

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Blackpool’s side.

  1. 1 Nov · Away

    Sheffield Wednesday1–1

    xG 1.07 for · 0.67 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Mansfield Town1–4

    xG 1.21 for · 2.33 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Milton Keynes Dons2–0

    xG 0.68 for · 0.81 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Leyton Orient0–2

    xG 0.80 for · 2.06 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Cambridge United0–1

    xG 0.66 for · 1.90 against

Away side

Wigan Athletic

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.29
Venue xG against / match
1.91
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.62
Venue attack rating
0.95
Venue defence rating
1.14

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Wigan Athletic’s side.

  1. 3 Nov · Home

    Mansfield Town0–0

    xG 1.66 for · 1.15 against

  2. 31 Oct · Home

    Bromley3–2

    xG 3.03 for · 1.81 against

  3. 27 Oct · Away

    Leicester City0–3

    xG 1.31 for · 2.93 against

  4. 24 Oct · Away

    Huddersfield Town1–2

    xG 0.50 for · 2.45 against

  5. 20 Oct · Away

    Oxford United1–2

    xG 0.25 for · 1.85 against

Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.49.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Blackpool expected goals 1.71, Wigan Athletic 1.49: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Blackpool goals down, Wigan Athletic goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Blackpool goals012345
04.16.14.52.20.80.2
17.010.47.73.81.40.4
26.08.96.63.31.20.4
33.45.13.81.90.70.2
41.52.21.60.80.30.1
50.50.70.60.30.1
Blackpool win, per cent
43.2%
Draw, per cent
23.3%
Wigan Athletic win, per cent
33.5%
0-0, per cent
4.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
62.0%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 12:30

Reading v Bromley

Expected home goals 2.51 · expected away goals 1.15

Over 2.5 goals 70.8% (7/17) · both teams to score 62.8% (13/22)

Home

66.9%

1/2 (1.49)

Draw

17.4%

71/15 (5.73)

Away

15.6%

124/23 (6.39)

Compare teams & see the workings: Reading v Bromley

Home side

Reading

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
2.04
Venue xG against / match
1.24
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.64
Venue attack rating
1.19
Venue defence rating
0.93

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Reading’s side.

  1. 4 Nov · Away

    Oxford United0–2

    xG 1.61 for · 0.57 against

  2. 31 Oct · Away

    Plymouth Argyle0–0

    xG 1.09 for · 0.86 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Barnsley2–1

    xG 1.34 for · 1.03 against

  4. 21 Oct · Home

    Leyton Orient1–0

    xG 1.42 for · 2.62 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Wigan Athletic0–1

    xG 1.80 for · 1.52 against

Away side

Bromley

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.15
Venue xG against / match
2.41
Last 6 xGD / match
-1.70
Venue attack rating
0.88
Venue defence rating
1.35

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Bromley’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Wigan Athletic2–3

    xG 1.81 for · 3.03 against

  2. 27 Oct · Away

    Milton Keynes Dons1–4

    xG 0.57 for · 2.95 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Peterborough United1–1

    xG 0.60 for · 1.53 against

  4. 20 Oct · Home

    Leicester City0–4

    xG 0.21 for · 2.96 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Stockport County0–1

    xG 0.41 for · 1.75 against

Expected home goals 2.51 · expected away goals 1.15.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Reading expected goals 2.51, Bromley 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Reading goals down, Bromley goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Reading goals012345
02.63.01.70.70.2
16.57.44.31.60.50.1
28.19.35.42.10.60.1
36.87.84.51.70.50.1
44.24.92.81.10.30.1
52.12.51.40.50.2
Reading win, per cent
66.9%
Draw, per cent
17.4%
Bromley win, per cent
15.6%
0-0, per cent
2.6%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
70.8%
Most likely score
2-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers

Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10

Over 2.5 goals 58.2% (13/18) · both teams to score 56.9% (16/21)

Home

56.6%

13/17 (1.77)

Draw

22.1%

53/15 (4.53)

Away

21.3%

70/19 (4.68)

Compare teams & see the workings: Bradford City v Doncaster Rovers

Home side

Bradford City

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.63
Venue xG against / match
0.97
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.17
Venue attack rating
1.03
Venue defence rating
0.81

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Bradford City’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Huddersfield Town0–3

    xG 1.03 for · 1.86 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    Oxford United0–0

    xG 1.25 for · 1.48 against

  3. 20 Oct · Away

    Burton Albion0–0

    xG 1.49 for · 1.76 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Stevenage2–0

    xG 2.26 for · 1.07 against

  5. 10 Oct · Home

    Leyton Orient0–0

    xG 1.17 for · 0.30 against

Away side

Doncaster Rovers

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.32
Venue xG against / match
2.05
Last 6 xGD / match
-1.66
Venue attack rating
0.96
Venue defence rating
1.20

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Doncaster Rovers’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Milton Keynes Dons1–6

    xG 1.06 for · 4.58 against

  2. 27 Oct · Away

    Luton Town1–3

    xG 1.35 for · 2.84 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Sheffield Wednesday2–0

    xG 1.81 for · 1.23 against

  4. 20 Oct · Home

    Stockport County0–2

    xG 0.20 for · 3.87 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Leicester City1–2

    xG 1.08 for · 2.60 against

Expected home goals 1.92 · expected away goals 1.10.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Bradford City expected goals 1.92, Doncaster Rovers 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bradford City goals down, Doncaster Rovers goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Bradford City goals012345
04.95.42.91.10.30.1
19.410.35.62.10.60.1
29.09.95.42.00.50.1
35.86.33.51.30.40.1
42.83.11.70.60.2
51.11.20.60.20.1
Bradford City win, per cent
56.6%
Draw, per cent
22.1%
Doncaster Rovers win, per cent
21.3%
0-0, per cent
4.9%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
58.2%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Burton Albion v Luton Town

Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53

Over 2.5 goals 52.7% (9/10) · both teams to score 56.0% (11/14)

Home

31.3%

11/5 (3.20)

Draw

25.1%

3/1 (3.99)

Away

43.6%

31/24 (2.29)

Compare teams & see the workings: Burton Albion v Luton Town

Home side

Burton Albion

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.21
Venue xG against / match
1.52
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.76
Venue attack rating
0.86
Venue defence rating
1.05

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Burton Albion’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Wycombe Wanderers0–2

    xG 0.66 for · 1.39 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Leyton Orient2–1

    xG 1.61 for · 0.91 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Bradford City0–0

    xG 1.76 for · 1.49 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Peterborough United2–2

    xG 1.07 for · 3.15 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers0–1

    xG 1.07 for · 0.70 against

Away side

Luton Town

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.48
Venue xG against / match
1.41
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.60
Venue attack rating
1.03
Venue defence rating
0.94

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Luton Town’s side.

  1. 3 Nov · Away

    Huddersfield Town1–1

    xG 0.84 for · 0.91 against

  2. 31 Oct · Away

    Peterborough United2–0

    xG 1.13 for · 1.08 against

  3. 27 Oct · Home

    Doncaster Rovers3–1

    xG 2.84 for · 1.35 against

  4. 24 Oct · Home

    Leicester City2–1

    xG 1.65 for · 1.27 against

  5. 20 Oct · Home

    Barnsley2–1

    xG 2.71 for · 1.14 against

Expected home goals 1.26 · expected away goals 1.53.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Burton Albion expected goals 1.26, Luton Town 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Burton Albion goals down, Luton Town goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Burton Albion goals012345
06.29.47.23.71.40.4
17.811.99.14.61.80.5
24.97.45.72.91.10.3
32.03.12.41.20.50.1
40.61.00.70.40.1
50.20.20.20.1
Burton Albion win, per cent
31.3%
Draw, per cent
25.1%
Luton Town win, per cent
43.6%
0-0, per cent
6.2%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
52.7%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Cambridge United v Stockport County

Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93

Over 2.5 goals 58.9% (16/23) · both teams to score 57.8% (8/11)

Home

22.0%

32/9 (4.56)

Draw

22.1%

53/15 (4.53)

Away

56.0%

11/14 (1.79)

Compare teams & see the workings: Cambridge United v Stockport County

Home side

Cambridge United

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.36
Venue xG against / match
1.39
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.16
Venue attack rating
0.92
Venue defence rating
0.99

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Cambridge United’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Leyton Orient0–3

    xG 1.83 for · 1.80 against

  2. 27 Oct · Away

    Sheffield Wednesday1–1

    xG 2.39 for · 1.72 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Plymouth Argyle2–3

    xG 1.41 for · 1.45 against

  4. 20 Oct · Home

    Wycombe Wanderers2–2

    xG 0.85 for · 1.23 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Barnsley2–1

    xG 1.55 for · 2.10 against

Away side

Stockport County

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
2.26
Venue xG against / match
1.04
Last 6 xGD / match
+1.56
Venue attack rating
1.38
Venue defence rating
0.79

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Stockport County’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    AFC Wimbledon2–1

    xG 2.79 for · 1.44 against

  2. 27 Oct · Away

    Oxford United0–1

    xG 2.53 for · 2.16 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Notts County1–1

    xG 2.73 for · 0.43 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Doncaster Rovers2–0

    xG 3.87 for · 0.20 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    Bromley1–0

    xG 1.75 for · 0.41 against

Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.93.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Cambridge United expected goals 1.13, Stockport County 1.93: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cambridge United goals down, Stockport County goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Cambridge United goals012345
04.79.18.75.62.71.0
15.310.29.96.33.11.2
23.05.85.63.61.70.7
31.12.22.11.30.60.2
40.30.60.60.40.20.1
50.10.10.10.1
Cambridge United win, per cent
22.0%
Draw, per cent
22.1%
Stockport County win, per cent
56.0%
0-0, per cent
4.7%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
58.9%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Huddersfield Town v Leicester City

Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28

Over 2.5 goals 57.6% (14/19) · both teams to score 59.3% (11/16)

Home

47.5%

21/19 (2.10)

Draw

23.7%

74/23 (4.22)

Away

28.8%

52/21 (3.48)

Compare teams & see the workings: Huddersfield Town v Leicester City

Home side

Huddersfield Town

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
2.05
Venue xG against / match
1.01
Last 6 xGD / match
+1.12
Venue attack rating
1.20
Venue defence rating
0.82

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Huddersfield Town’s side.

  1. 3 Nov · Home

    Luton Town1–1

    xG 0.91 for · 0.84 against

  2. 31 Oct · Away

    Bradford City3–0

    xG 1.86 for · 1.03 against

  3. 24 Oct · Home

    Wigan Athletic2–1

    xG 2.45 for · 0.50 against

  4. 20 Oct · Home

    Peterborough United4–1

    xG 2.72 for · 0.92 against

  5. 17 Oct · Away

    Plymouth Argyle2–0

    xG 2.70 for · 0.76 against

Away side

Leicester City

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.68
Venue xG against / match
1.34
Last 6 xGD / match
+1.28
Venue attack rating
1.11
Venue defence rating
0.92

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Leicester City’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Stevenage2–2

    xG 2.49 for · 1.23 against

  2. 27 Oct · Home

    Wigan Athletic3–0

    xG 2.93 for · 1.31 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Luton Town1–2

    xG 1.27 for · 1.65 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Bromley4–0

    xG 2.96 for · 0.21 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    Doncaster Rovers2–1

    xG 2.60 for · 1.08 against

Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.28.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Huddersfield Town expected goals 1.71, Leicester City 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Huddersfield Town goals down, Leicester City goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Huddersfield Town goals012345
05.06.44.11.80.60.1
18.611.07.03.01.00.2
27.39.46.02.60.80.2
34.25.43.41.50.50.1
41.82.31.50.60.20.1
50.60.80.50.20.1
Huddersfield Town win, per cent
47.5%
Draw, per cent
23.7%
Leicester City win, per cent
28.8%
0-0, per cent
5.0%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
57.6%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon

Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30

Over 2.5 goals 49.3% (25/24) · both teams to score 53.8% (6/7)

Home

38.1%

13/8 (2.63)

Draw

26.1%

65/23 (3.83)

Away

35.8%

43/24 (2.79)

Compare teams & see the workings: Leyton Orient v AFC Wimbledon

Home side

Leyton Orient

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.16
Venue xG against / match
1.75
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.02
Venue attack rating
0.84
Venue defence rating
1.16

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Leyton Orient’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Cambridge United3–0

    xG 1.80 for · 1.83 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    Burton Albion1–2

    xG 0.91 for · 1.61 against

  3. 21 Oct · Away

    Reading0–1

    xG 2.62 for · 1.42 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Blackpool2–0

    xG 2.06 for · 0.80 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Bradford City0–0

    xG 0.30 for · 1.17 against

Away side

AFC Wimbledon

Season away matches
7
Venue xG for / match
0.96
Venue xG against / match
1.64
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.99
Venue attack rating
0.80
Venue defence rating
1.03

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from AFC Wimbledon’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Stockport County1–2

    xG 1.44 for · 2.79 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Wycombe Wanderers1–1

    xG 1.80 for · 1.48 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Mansfield Town0–3

    xG 0.57 for · 1.84 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Sheffield Wednesday0–5

    xG 0.38 for · 2.70 against

  5. 10 Oct · Away

    Plymouth Argyle1–2

    xG 0.89 for · 1.98 against

Expected home goals 1.35 · expected away goals 1.30.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Leyton Orient expected goals 1.35, AFC Wimbledon 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leyton Orient goals down, AFC Wimbledon goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Leyton Orient goals012345
07.19.26.02.60.80.2
19.612.48.13.51.10.3
26.48.45.42.30.80.2
32.93.82.41.10.30.1
41.01.30.80.40.1
50.30.30.20.1
Leyton Orient win, per cent
38.1%
Draw, per cent
26.1%
AFC Wimbledon win, per cent
35.8%
0-0, per cent
7.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
49.3%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48

Over 2.5 goals 58.4% (17/24) · both teams to score 60.9% (9/14)

Home

39.5%

26/17 (2.53)

Draw

24.1%

22/7 (4.14)

Away

36.4%

7/4 (2.75)

Compare teams & see the workings: Mansfield Town v Milton Keynes Dons

Home side

Mansfield Town

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.91
Venue xG against / match
1.14
Last 6 xGD / match
+1.06
Venue attack rating
1.13
Venue defence rating
0.89

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Mansfield Town’s side.

  1. 3 Nov · Away

    Wigan Athletic0–0

    xG 1.15 for · 1.66 against

  2. 31 Oct · Home

    Notts County0–2

    xG 1.27 for · 1.41 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Blackpool4–1

    xG 2.33 for · 1.21 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    AFC Wimbledon3–0

    xG 1.84 for · 0.57 against

  5. 15 Oct · Home

    Oxford United1–1

    xG 3.77 for · 0.74 against

Away side

Milton Keynes Dons

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.85
Venue xG against / match
1.24
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.76
Venue attack rating
1.19
Venue defence rating
0.88

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Milton Keynes Dons’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Doncaster Rovers6–1

    xG 4.58 for · 1.06 against

  2. 27 Oct · Home

    Bromley4–1

    xG 2.95 for · 0.57 against

  3. 24 Oct · Away

    Stevenage1–0

    xG 2.41 for · 0.53 against

  4. 20 Oct · Away

    Blackpool0–2

    xG 0.81 for · 0.68 against

  5. 17 Oct · Home

    Luton Town2–1

    xG 1.36 for · 1.54 against

Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 1.48.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Mansfield Town expected goals 1.55, Milton Keynes Dons 1.48: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Mansfield Town goals down, Milton Keynes Dons goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Mansfield Town goals012345
04.87.15.32.61.00.3
17.511.18.24.01.50.4
25.88.66.43.11.20.3
33.04.43.31.60.60.2
41.21.71.30.60.20.1
50.40.50.40.20.1
Mansfield Town win, per cent
39.5%
Draw, per cent
24.1%
Milton Keynes Dons win, per cent
36.4%
0-0, per cent
4.8%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
58.4%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Notts County v Stevenage

Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.01

Over 2.5 goals 43.1% (29/22) · both teams to score 47.8% (12/11)

Home

45.5%

6/5 (2.20)

Draw

27.0%

62/23 (3.70)

Away

27.5%

37/14 (3.64)

Compare teams & see the workings: Notts County v Stevenage

Home side

Notts County

Season home matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.37
Venue xG against / match
0.96
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.51
Venue attack rating
0.92
Venue defence rating
0.81

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Notts County’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Mansfield Town2–0

    xG 1.41 for · 1.27 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Stockport County1–1

    xG 0.43 for · 2.73 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Sheffield Wednesday2–0

    xG 2.45 for · 0.25 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Wycombe Wanderers0–2

    xG 0.42 for · 0.87 against

  5. 10 Oct · Home

    Oxford United1–2

    xG 0.56 for · 1.35 against

Away side

Stevenage

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.16
Venue xG against / match
1.46
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.08
Venue attack rating
0.89
Venue defence rating
0.96

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Stevenage’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Away

    Leicester City2–2

    xG 1.23 for · 2.49 against

  2. 24 Oct · Home

    Milton Keynes Dons0–1

    xG 0.53 for · 2.41 against

  3. 20 Oct · Home

    Plymouth Argyle3–0

    xG 1.90 for · 1.38 against

  4. 17 Oct · Away

    Bradford City0–2

    xG 1.07 for · 2.26 against

  5. 10 Oct · Home

    Wigan Athletic1–0

    xG 2.36 for · 0.25 against

Expected home goals 1.39 · expected away goals 1.01.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Notts County expected goals 1.39, Stevenage 1.01: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Notts County goals down, Stevenage goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Notts County goals012345
09.19.24.71.60.40.1
112.612.76.52.20.60.1
28.78.84.51.50.40.1
34.04.12.10.70.2
41.41.40.70.20.1
50.40.40.20.1
Notts County win, per cent
45.5%
Draw, per cent
27.0%
Stevenage win, per cent
27.5%
0-0, per cent
9.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
43.1%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

Sat 21 Nov, 15:00

Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers

Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36

Over 2.5 goals 49.4% (25/24) · both teams to score 53.9% (6/7)

Home

35.5%

20/11 (2.82)

Draw

26.1%

17/6 (3.83)

Away

38.4%

8/5 (2.60)

Compare teams & see the workings: Oxford United v Wycombe Wanderers

Home side

Oxford United

Season home matches
7
Venue xG for / match
1.41
Venue xG against / match
1.38
Last 6 xGD / match
-0.12
Venue attack rating
0.94
Venue defence rating
0.99

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Oxford United’s side.

  1. 4 Nov · Home

    Reading2–0

    xG 0.57 for · 1.61 against

  2. 31 Oct · Away

    Barnsley1–1

    xG 2.79 for · 0.89 against

  3. 27 Oct · Home

    Stockport County1–0

    xG 2.16 for · 2.53 against

  4. 24 Oct · Home

    Bradford City0–0

    xG 1.48 for · 1.25 against

  5. 20 Oct · Home

    Wigan Athletic2–1

    xG 1.85 for · 0.25 against

Away side

Wycombe Wanderers

Season away matches
6
Venue xG for / match
1.35
Venue xG against / match
1.26
Last 6 xGD / match
+0.16
Venue attack rating
0.98
Venue defence rating
0.88

Latest 5 league matches · newest first

Scores and xG from Wycombe Wanderers’s side.

  1. 31 Oct · Home

    Burton Albion2–0

    xG 1.39 for · 0.66 against

  2. 24 Oct · Away

    AFC Wimbledon1–1

    xG 1.48 for · 1.80 against

  3. 20 Oct · Away

    Cambridge United2–2

    xG 1.23 for · 0.85 against

  4. 17 Oct · Home

    Notts County2–0

    xG 0.87 for · 0.42 against

  5. 10 Oct · Home

    Luton Town1–4

    xG 1.96 for · 2.93 against

Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.36.

The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

The model

What the expected goals say

Oxford United expected goals 1.29, Wycombe Wanderers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.

Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oxford United goals down, Wycombe Wanderers goals across.

Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals count scores up to 12.
Oxford United goals012345
07.19.66.52.91.00.3
19.112.48.43.81.30.4
25.98.05.42.50.80.2
32.53.52.31.10.40.1
40.81.10.80.30.1
50.20.30.20.1
Oxford United win, per cent
35.5%
Draw, per cent
26.1%
Wycombe Wanderers win, per cent
38.4%
0-0, per cent
7.1%
Over 2.5 goals, per cent
49.4%
Most likely score
1-1

A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.

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