Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Aston Villa
10th on points, with 13. 15th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 13.80 xG for, 18.62 against, goal difference -3.
- Season xGD
- -4.82
- GF minus xG
- +0.20
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.82
- xG per match
- 1.38
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 1.86
- xGD / match
- -0.48
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.38
- xG against / match
- 1.86
- xGD / match
- -0.48
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.74
- xG against / match
- 1.83
- xGD / match
- -0.09
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.86 from 5 home matches. Home defence 1.11. Away attack 1.09 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.19.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Aston Villa v Sunderland, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 23.1% (73/22), away 38.7% (19/12). Expected home goals 1.63, expected away goals 1.64. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Aston Villa v Sunderland
Home side
Aston Villa
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.17
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.64
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.09
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 1.11
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Aston Villa’s side.
Away side
Sunderland
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.15
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.20
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 1.21
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sunderland’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Chelsea1–0xG 2.38 for · 0.66 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.82 for · 0.69 against
25 Oct · Home
Leeds United0–0xG 0.83 for · 0.76 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.07 for · 4.23 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.72 for · 1.41 against
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.64.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.63, Sunderland 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Aston Villa’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 2.88 for · 3.55 against
31 Oct · Home
Fulham1–1xG 1.83 for · 2.24 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.61 for · 1.56 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.57 for · 0.99 against
10 Oct · Home
Brentford2–2xG 2.28 for · 1.06 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.26 for · 1.56 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 0.82 for · 2.28 against
5 Sept · Away
Hull City0–0xG 1.93 for · 0.57 against
31 Aug · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.33 for · 1.04 against
23 Aug · Away
xG 0.29 for · 3.77 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | A | Manchester United | 4-4 | 2.88 | 3.55 | +1.12 |
| 31 Oct | H | Fulham | 1-1 | 1.83 | 2.24 | -0.83 |
| 24 Oct | H | Manchester City | 2-1 | 0.61 | 1.56 | +1.39 |
| 17 Oct | A | Newcastle United | 1-0 | 1.57 | 0.99 | -0.57 |
| 10 Oct | H | Brentford | 2-2 | 2.28 | 1.06 | -0.28 |
| 19 Sept | A | Tottenham Hotspur | 3-2 | 1.26 | 1.56 | +1.74 |
| 12 Sept | H | Nottingham Forest | 1-2 | 0.82 | 2.28 | +0.18 |
| 5 Sept | A | Hull City | 0-0 | 1.93 | 0.57 | -1.93 |
| 31 Aug | H | Arsenal | 0-1 | 0.33 | 1.04 | -0.33 |
| 23 Aug | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-4 | 0.29 | 3.77 | -0.29 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.62)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
38.7%
19/12 (2.58)
The model: Aston Villa v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.63, Sunderland 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 17:30 · Away
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.59
Home
37.0%
29/17 (2.70)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
39.3%
37/24 (2.54)
The model: Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
The model
What the expected goals say
Ipswich Town expected goals 1.54, Aston Villa 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Ipswich Town goals down, Aston Villa goals across.
| Ipswich Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 37.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 39.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
31.1%
31/14 (3.21)
Draw
24.4%
59/19 (4.11)
Away
44.5%
5/4 (2.25)
The model: Aston Villa v Everton
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.31, Everton 1.61: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Everton goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.7 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.4 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 31.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.4%
- Everton win, per cent
- 44.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.40
Home
43.6%
22/17 (2.29)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
32.6%
29/14 (3.07)
The model: Aston Villa v Crystal Palace
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.66, Crystal Palace 1.40: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.9 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 43.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 32.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 16:30 · Away
Coventry City v Aston Villa
Expected home goals 1.52 · expected away goals 1.60
Home
36.4%
7/4 (2.74)
Draw
23.7%
45/14 (4.21)
Away
39.8%
3/2 (2.51)
The model: Coventry City v Aston Villa
The model
What the expected goals say
Coventry City expected goals 1.52, Aston Villa 1.60: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Coventry City goals down, Aston Villa goals across.
| Coventry City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.1 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 36.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 39.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
