Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Brentford
8th on points, with 14. 10th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 14.63 xG for, 14.78 against, goal difference +5.
- Season xGD
- -0.15
- GF minus xG
- +1.37
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.15
- xG per match
- 1.46
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.46
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- -0.01
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.46
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- -0.01
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.23
- xG against / match
- 1.55
- xGD / match
- -0.32
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.09 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.90. Away attack 0.90 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.10.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Brentford v Everton, Mon 23 Nov, 20:00. The model’s fair prices are home 45.6% (25/21), draw 24.1% (41/13), away 30.3% (23/10). Expected home goals 1.66, expected away goals 1.31. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Brentford v Everton
Home side
Brentford
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.12
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.32
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Brentford’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 0.59 for · 2.11 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.46 for · 0.86 against
25 Oct · Away
Hull City1–1xG 1.74 for · 1.57 against
17 Oct · Home
Liverpool1–2xG 0.88 for · 1.64 against
10 Oct · Away
Aston Villa2–2xG 1.06 for · 2.28 against
Away side
Everton
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.52
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.49
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.07
- Venue defence rating
- 0.97
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Everton’s side.
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.31.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.66, Everton 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Everton goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 45.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Everton win, per cent
- 30.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Brentford’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 0.59 for · 2.11 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.46 for · 0.86 against
25 Oct · Away
Hull City1–1xG 1.74 for · 1.57 against
17 Oct · Home
Liverpool1–2xG 0.88 for · 1.64 against
10 Oct · Away
Aston Villa2–2xG 1.06 for · 2.28 against
18 Sept · Home
Chelsea3–0xG 2.65 for · 0.83 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.50 for · 1.75 against
5 Sept · Home
Sunderland1–1xG 1.21 for · 1.71 against
30 Aug · Away
Leeds United1–1xG 1.67 for · 1.46 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 3.87 for · 0.57 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-2 | 0.59 | 2.11 | -0.59 |
| 31 Oct | H | Nottingham Forest | 2-0 | 0.46 | 0.86 | +1.54 |
| 25 Oct | A | Hull City | 1-1 | 1.74 | 1.57 | -0.74 |
| 17 Oct | H | Liverpool | 1-2 | 0.88 | 1.64 | +0.12 |
| 10 Oct | A | Aston Villa | 2-2 | 1.06 | 2.28 | +0.94 |
| 18 Sept | H | Chelsea | 3-0 | 2.65 | 0.83 | +0.35 |
| 12 Sept | A | AFC Bournemouth | 2-2 | 0.50 | 1.75 | +1.50 |
| 5 Sept | H | Sunderland | 1-1 | 1.21 | 1.71 | -0.21 |
| 30 Aug | A | Leeds United | 1-1 | 1.67 | 1.46 | -0.67 |
| 22 Aug | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 3-0 | 3.87 | 0.57 | -0.87 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
45.6%
25/21 (2.19)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
30.3%
23/10 (3.30)
The model: Brentford v Everton
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.66, Everton 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Everton goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 45.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Everton win, per cent
- 30.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Manchester United v Brentford
Expected home goals 2.14 · expected away goals 1.52
Home
51.8%
14/15 (1.93)
Draw
20.8%
80/21 (4.81)
Away
27.4%
37/14 (3.64)
The model: Manchester United v Brentford
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester United expected goals 2.14, Brentford 1.52: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester United goals down, Brentford goals across.
| Manchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 51.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.8%
- Brentford win, per cent
- 27.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.5%
24/17 (2.41)
Draw
26.1%
17/6 (3.83)
Away
32.4%
25/12 (3.08)
The model: Brentford v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.41, Arsenal 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 41.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.1%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 32.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Brentford v Manchester City
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.34
Home
35.3%
11/6 (2.83)
Draw
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
Away
38.4%
37/23 (2.60)
The model: Brentford v Manchester City
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.27, Manchester City 1.34: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Manchester City goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 35.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.3%
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 38.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
49.2%
25/24 (2.03)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
27.3%
61/23 (3.66)
The model: Fulham v Brentford
The model
What the expected goals say
Fulham expected goals 1.76, Brentford 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fulham goals down, Brentford goals across.
| Fulham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Fulham win, per cent
- 49.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Brentford win, per cent
- 27.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
