Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Leeds United
9th on points, with 14. 7th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 13.18 xG for, 12.55 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +0.63
- GF minus xG
- -3.18
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.63
- xG per match
- 1.32
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.32
- xG against / match
- 1.25
- xGD / match
- +0.06
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.32
- xG against / match
- 1.25
- xGD / match
- +0.06
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.13
- xG against / match
- 1.19
- xGD / match
- -0.06
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.02 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.87. Away attack 0.86 from 5 away matches. Away defence 0.96.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Chelsea v Leeds United, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 48.1% (14/13), draw 25.1% (71/24), away 26.7% (63/23). Expected home goals 1.57, expected away goals 1.10. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Chelsea v Leeds United
Home side
Chelsea
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.23
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chelsea’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Sunderland0–1xG 0.66 for · 2.38 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.01 for · 1.24 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.47 for · 0.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Everton2–0xG 1.47 for · 0.43 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.10 for · 1.38 against
Away side
Leeds United
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.06
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leeds United’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.96 for · 0.72 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.71 for · 1.29 against
25 Oct · Away
Sunderland0–0xG 0.76 for · 0.83 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 0.92 against
10 Oct · Away
Arsenal1–2xG 0.62 for · 2.33 against
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 1.10.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Chelsea expected goals 1.57, Leeds United 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chelsea goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Chelsea goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 48.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Leeds United’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.96 for · 0.72 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.71 for · 1.29 against
25 Oct · Away
Sunderland0–0xG 0.76 for · 0.83 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 0.92 against
10 Oct · Away
Arsenal1–2xG 0.62 for · 2.33 against
20 Sept · Home
xG 1.31 for · 1.06 against
14 Sept · Home
xG 1.99 for · 0.88 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 2.49 for · 2.19 against
30 Aug · Home
Brentford1–1xG 1.46 for · 1.67 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.47 for · 0.66 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | H | Tottenham Hotspur | 1-0 | 1.96 | 0.72 | -0.96 |
| 31 Oct | A | AFC Bournemouth | 0-2 | 0.71 | 1.29 | -0.71 |
| 25 Oct | A | Sunderland | 0-0 | 0.76 | 0.83 | -0.76 |
| 18 Oct | H | Manchester United | 1-1 | 1.41 | 0.92 | -0.41 |
| 10 Oct | A | Arsenal | 1-2 | 0.62 | 2.33 | +0.38 |
| 20 Sept | H | Crystal Palace | 0-0 | 1.31 | 1.06 | -1.31 |
| 14 Sept | H | Newcastle United | 4-1 | 1.99 | 0.88 | +2.01 |
| 5 Sept | A | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1-1 | 2.49 | 2.19 | -1.49 |
| 30 Aug | H | Brentford | 1-1 | 1.46 | 1.67 | -0.46 |
| 22 Aug | A | Nottingham Forest | 1-0 | 0.47 | 0.66 | +0.53 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
48.1%
14/13 (2.08)
Draw
25.1%
71/24 (3.98)
Away
26.7%
63/23 (3.74)
The model: Chelsea v Leeds United
The model
What the expected goals say
Chelsea expected goals 1.57, Leeds United 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chelsea goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Chelsea goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 48.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Leeds United v Coventry City
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.94
Home
51.6%
15/16 (1.94)
Draw
25.6%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
22.8%
71/21 (4.38)
The model: Leeds United v Coventry City
The model
What the expected goals say
Leeds United expected goals 1.55, Coventry City 0.94: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leeds United goals down, Coventry City goals across.
| Leeds United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 51.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.6%
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 22.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Wed 2 Dec, 19:30 · Away
Manchester City v Leeds United
Expected home goals 1.97 · expected away goals 1.32
Home
52.6%
19/21 (1.90)
Draw
21.8%
68/19 (4.58)
Away
25.6%
61/21 (3.91)
The model: Manchester City v Leeds United
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester City expected goals 1.97, Leeds United 1.32: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester City goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Manchester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 9.7 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 52.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 25.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Leeds United v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 2.05 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
54.3%
16/19 (1.84)
Draw
21.3%
48/13 (4.69)
Away
24.4%
59/19 (4.11)
The model: Leeds United v Ipswich Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Leeds United expected goals 2.05, Ipswich Town 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leeds United goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Leeds United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 54.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.3%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 24.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.2%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.44)
Draw
27.0%
46/17 (3.71)
Away
32.0%
49/23 (3.13)
The model: Liverpool v Leeds United
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.33, Leeds United 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.8 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.5 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.0%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 32.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
