Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Sunderland
19th on points, with 8. 13th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 15.58 xG for, 16.41 against, goal difference -9.
- Season xGD
- -0.83
- GF minus xG
- -7.58
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.83
- xG per match
- 1.56
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.56
- xG against / match
- 1.64
- xGD / match
- -0.08
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.56
- xG against / match
- 1.64
- xGD / match
- -0.08
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.57
- xG against / match
- 1.76
- xGD / match
- -0.20
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.99 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.91. Away attack 1.09 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.21.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Aston Villa v Sunderland, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 23.1% (73/22), away 38.7% (19/12). Expected home goals 1.63, expected away goals 1.64. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Aston Villa v Sunderland
Home side
Aston Villa
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.17
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.64
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.09
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 1.11
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Aston Villa’s side.
Away side
Sunderland
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.15
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.20
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 1.21
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sunderland’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Chelsea1–0xG 2.38 for · 0.66 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.82 for · 0.69 against
25 Oct · Home
Leeds United0–0xG 0.83 for · 0.76 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.07 for · 4.23 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.72 for · 1.41 against
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.64.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.63, Sunderland 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 7.6 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Sunderland’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Chelsea1–0xG 2.38 for · 0.66 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.82 for · 0.69 against
25 Oct · Home
Leeds United0–0xG 0.83 for · 0.76 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.07 for · 4.23 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.72 for · 1.41 against
20 Sept · Away
xG 3.57 for · 2.82 against
12 Sept · Home
Arsenal0–2xG 1.80 for · 1.88 against
5 Sept · Away
Brentford1–1xG 1.71 for · 1.21 against
30 Aug · Home
Fulham1–0xG 2.02 for · 0.95 against
22 Aug · Away
Ipswich Town1–2xG 0.66 for · 1.80 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Nov | H | Chelsea | 1-0 | 2.38 | 0.66 | -1.38 |
| 31 Oct | A | Coventry City | 1-3 | 1.82 | 0.69 | -0.82 |
| 25 Oct | H | Leeds United | 0-0 | 0.83 | 0.76 | -0.83 |
| 18 Oct | A | AFC Bournemouth | 0-2 | 0.07 | 4.23 | -0.07 |
| 10 Oct | H | Brighton & Hove Albion | 0-2 | 0.72 | 1.41 | -0.72 |
| 20 Sept | A | Manchester City | 3-5 | 3.57 | 2.82 | -0.57 |
| 12 Sept | H | Arsenal | 0-2 | 1.80 | 1.88 | -1.80 |
| 5 Sept | A | Brentford | 1-1 | 1.71 | 1.21 | -0.71 |
| 30 Aug | H | Fulham | 1-0 | 2.02 | 0.95 | -1.02 |
| 22 Aug | A | Ipswich Town | 1-2 | 0.66 | 1.80 | +0.34 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.62)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
38.7%
19/12 (2.58)
The model: Aston Villa v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.63, Sunderland 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Home
Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.02
Home
50.2%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
24.6%
43/14 (4.07)
The model: Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur
The model
What the expected goals say
Sunderland expected goals 1.58, Tottenham Hotspur 1.02: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sunderland goals down, Tottenham Hotspur goals across.
| Sunderland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 50.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 24.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
43.1%
29/22 (2.32)
Draw
23.6%
68/21 (4.24)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.00)
The model: Liverpool v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.67, Sunderland 1.45: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 43.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 6 Dec, 14:00 · Away
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Expected home goals 1.65 · expected away goals 1.84
Home
34.9%
43/23 (2.87)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
42.9%
4/3 (2.33)
The model: Newcastle United v Sunderland
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.65, Sunderland 1.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.6 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 34.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 42.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 13 Dec, 14:00 · Home
Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.34 · expected away goals 1.66
Home
31.0%
20/9 (3.22)
Draw
23.9%
54/17 (4.18)
Away
45.0%
11/9 (2.22)
The model: Sunderland v Nottingham Forest
The model
What the expected goals say
Sunderland expected goals 1.34, Nottingham Forest 1.66: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sunderland goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| Sunderland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.2 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 31.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 45.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
