Premier League · 2026/2027 · provider tag enet
Tottenham Hotspur
11th on points, with 12. 9th on season xG difference. 10 league matches, 12.41 xG for, 12.02 against, goal difference -1.
- Season xGD
- +0.39
- GF minus xG
- -2.41
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.39
- xG per match
- 1.24
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.24
- xG against / match
- 1.20
- xGD / match
- +0.04
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.24
- xG against / match
- 1.20
- xGD / match
- +0.04
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.50
- xG against / match
- 0.90
- xGD / match
- +0.60
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.99 from 5 home matches. Home defence 0.77. Away attack 0.83 from 5 away matches. Away defence 1.01.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 56.5% (10/13), draw 21.6% (29/8), away 21.9% (82/23). Expected home goals 1.98, expected away goals 1.16. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Home side
Tottenham Hotspur
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.54
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.80
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.60
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.77
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tottenham Hotspur’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Leeds United0–1xG 0.72 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.47 for · 0.14 against
24 Oct · Away
Chelsea2–0xG 0.74 for · 0.47 against
19 Oct · Home
xG 0.86 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.62 for · 0.80 against
Away side
Ipswich Town
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 1.28
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Ipswich Town’s side.
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.98, Ipswich Town 1.16: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.6%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 21.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Tottenham Hotspur’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Leeds United0–1xG 0.72 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.47 for · 0.14 against
24 Oct · Away
Chelsea2–0xG 0.74 for · 0.47 against
19 Oct · Home
xG 0.86 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.62 for · 0.80 against
19 Sept · Home
Aston Villa2–3xG 1.56 for · 1.26 against
12 Sept · Home
Everton0–0xG 0.69 for · 1.11 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.06 for · 0.92 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.12 for · 0.72 against
22 Aug · Away
Brentford0–3xG 0.57 for · 3.87 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Nov | A | Leeds United | 0-1 | 0.72 | 1.96 | -0.72 |
| 31 Oct | H | Crystal Palace | 2-0 | 3.47 | 0.14 | -1.47 |
| 24 Oct | A | Chelsea | 2-0 | 0.74 | 0.47 | +1.26 |
| 19 Oct | H | Coventry City | 3-1 | 0.86 | 0.77 | +2.14 |
| 10 Oct | A | Manchester United | 1-1 | 1.62 | 0.80 | -0.62 |
| 19 Sept | H | Aston Villa | 2-3 | 1.56 | 1.26 | +0.44 |
| 12 Sept | H | Everton | 0-0 | 0.69 | 1.11 | -0.69 |
| 5 Sept | A | Nottingham Forest | 0-0 | 1.06 | 0.92 | -1.06 |
| 29 Aug | H | Newcastle United | 0-2 | 1.12 | 0.72 | -1.12 |
| 22 Aug | A | Brentford | 0-3 | 0.57 | 3.87 | -0.57 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
21.6%
29/8 (4.62)
Away
21.9%
82/23 (4.57)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.98, Ipswich Town 1.16: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.6%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 21.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 14:05 · Away
Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.02
Home
50.2%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
24.6%
43/14 (4.07)
The model: Sunderland v Tottenham Hotspur
The model
What the expected goals say
Sunderland expected goals 1.58, Tottenham Hotspur 1.02: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Sunderland goals down, Tottenham Hotspur goals across.
| Sunderland goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 50.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 24.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Thu 3 Dec, 20:00 · Home
Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham
Expected home goals 1.44 · expected away goals 1.00
Home
47.1%
9/8 (2.12)
Draw
26.6%
58/21 (3.76)
Away
26.3%
14/5 (3.80)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Fulham
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.44, Fulham 1.00: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 47.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 26.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 6 Dec, 16:30 · Home
Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.04
Home
42.0%
29/21 (2.38)
Draw
27.9%
49/19 (3.58)
Away
30.0%
7/3 (3.33)
The model: Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.28, Arsenal 1.04: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.1 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 42.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.9%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 30.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 40.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Mon 14 Dec, 20:00 · Away
Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
37.6%
5/3 (2.66)
Draw
26.6%
11/4 (3.75)
Away
35.8%
43/24 (2.79)
The model: Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.30, Tottenham Hotspur 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Tottenham Hotspur goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.7 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 37.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.6%
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 35.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
