2026/2027 · matchweek 10 · provider tag enet
Premier League xG form
Every league match so far. The fair prices further down the page use these home and away rates, shrunk towards the league, not the last-ten window.
- 1+8.5610 played · +0.86 / match
Arsenal: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 1
- xG for / against
- 16.15 / 7.59
- Goals for / against
- 15 / 5
- Goals minus xG
- -1.15
- Home xG for / against
- 1.90 / 0.44 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.33 / 1.08 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 2+7.3710 played · +0.74 / match
Manchester City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 3
- xG for / against
- 20.09 / 12.72
- Goals for / against
- 21 / 13
- Goals minus xG
- +0.91
- Home xG for / against
- 2.44 / 1.69 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.58 / 0.85 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 3+6.7410 played · +0.67 / match
AFC Bournemouth: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 7
- xG for / against
- 18.00 / 11.26
- Goals for / against
- 16 / 14
- Goals minus xG
- -2.00
- Home xG for / against
- 2.04 / 0.95 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.56 / 1.30 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 4+5.7410 played · +0.57 / match
Brighton & Hove Albion: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 2
- xG for / against
- 19.33 / 13.59
- Goals for / against
- 26 / 7
- Goals minus xG
- +6.67
- Home xG for / against
- 2.28 / 1.15 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.59 / 1.56 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 5Nottingham ForestGoals behind xG+4.7110 played · +0.47 / match
Nottingham Forest: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 16
- xG for / against
- 15.71 / 11.00
- Goals for / against
- 9 / 13
- Goals minus xG
- -6.71
- Home xG for / against
- 0.93 / 1.02 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 2.21 / 1.18 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 6+2.6510 played · +0.26 / match
Liverpool: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 4
- xG for / against
- 15.83 / 13.18
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -1.83
- Home xG for / against
- 1.24 / 1.32 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.92 / 1.32 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 7+0.6310 played · +0.06 / match
Leeds United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 9
- xG for / against
- 13.18 / 12.55
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 8
- Goals minus xG
- -3.18
- Home xG for / against
- 1.63 / 1.05 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.01 / 1.46 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 8+0.5210 played · +0.05 / match
Fulham: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 15
- xG for / against
- 14.42 / 13.90
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 12
- Goals minus xG
- -4.42
- Home xG for / against
- 1.63 / 1.42 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.25 / 1.36 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 9+0.3910 played · +0.04 / match
Tottenham Hotspur: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 11
- xG for / against
- 12.41 / 12.02
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- -2.41
- Home xG for / against
- 1.54 / 0.80 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.94 / 1.60 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 10-0.1510 played · -0.01 / match
Brentford: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 8
- xG for / against
- 14.63 / 14.78
- Goals for / against
- 16 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- +1.37
- Home xG for / against
- 1.81 / 1.12 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.11 / 1.83 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 11-0.3010 played · -0.03 / match
Manchester United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 18
- xG for / against
- 17.57 / 17.87
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 19
- Goals minus xG
- -3.57
- Home xG for / against
- 2.26 / 1.96 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.26 / 1.61 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 12-0.3710 played · -0.04 / match
Everton: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 6
- xG for / against
- 13.83 / 14.20
- Goals for / against
- 12 / 10
- Goals minus xG
- -1.83
- Home xG for / against
- 1.25 / 1.35 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.52 / 1.49 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 13SunderlandGoals behind xG-0.8310 played · -0.08 / match
Sunderland: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 19
- xG for / against
- 15.58 / 16.41
- Goals for / against
- 8 / 17
- Goals minus xG
- -7.58
- Home xG for / against
- 1.55 / 1.13 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.57 / 2.15 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 14-0.9810 played · -0.10 / match
Chelsea: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 5
- xG for / against
- 14.01 / 14.99
- Goals for / against
- 19 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- +4.99
- Home xG for / against
- 1.68 / 1.23 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.12 / 1.77 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 15-4.8210 played · -0.48 / match
Aston Villa: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 10
- xG for / against
- 13.80 / 18.62
- Goals for / against
- 14 / 17
- Goals minus xG
- +0.20
- Home xG for / against
- 1.17 / 1.64 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.59 / 2.09 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 16-5.0510 played · -0.51 / match
Hull City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 13
- xG for / against
- 9.47 / 14.52
- Goals for / against
- 11 / 11
- Goals minus xG
- +1.53
- Home xG for / against
- 1.05 / 1.65 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.84 / 1.26 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 17-5.1810 played · -0.52 / match
Newcastle United: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 12
- xG for / against
- 11.54 / 16.72
- Goals for / against
- 13 / 16
- Goals minus xG
- +1.46
- Home xG for / against
- 1.20 / 1.97 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.11 / 1.37 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 18-5.6210 played · -0.56 / match
Coventry City: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 17
- xG for / against
- 9.51 / 15.13
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 19
- Goals minus xG
- +0.49
- Home xG for / against
- 1.06 / 1.55 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 0.84 / 1.48 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 19-5.9210 played · -0.59 / match
Ipswich Town: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 14
- xG for / against
- 13.52 / 19.44
- Goals for / against
- 15 / 20
- Goals minus xG
- +1.48
- Home xG for / against
- 1.08 / 1.54 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.62 / 2.35 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
- 20-8.0910 played · -0.81 / match
Crystal Palace: Figures & venue splits
- Season position on points
- 20
- xG for / against
- 13.78 / 21.87
- Goals for / against
- 10 / 24
- Goals minus xG
- -3.78
- Home xG for / against
- 1.58 / 2.17 (5 played)
- Away xG for / against
- 1.18 / 2.21 (5 played)
Venue figures are per match in this window. Flags use the season.
| # | Club · form | xGD | xGD / P | Pos | P | xGF | xGA | GF | GA | GF-xG | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | +8.56 | +0.86 | 1 | 10 | 16.15 | 7.59 | 15 | 5 | -1.15 | 1.90 / 0.44 | 1.33 / 1.08 |
| 2 | Manchester City | +7.37 | +0.74 | 3 | 10 | 20.09 | 12.72 | 21 | 13 | +0.91 | 2.44 / 1.69 | 1.58 / 0.85 |
| 3 | AFC Bournemouth | +6.74 | +0.67 | 7 | 10 | 18.00 | 11.26 | 16 | 14 | -2.00 | 2.04 / 0.95 | 1.56 / 1.30 |
| 4 | Brighton & Hove AlbionGoals ahead of xGConceding fewer than xG | +5.74 | +0.57 | 2 | 10 | 19.33 | 13.59 | 26 | 7 | +6.67 | 2.28 / 1.15 | 1.59 / 1.56 |
| 5 | Nottingham ForestGoals behind xG | +4.71 | +0.47 | 16 | 10 | 15.71 | 11.00 | 9 | 13 | -6.71 | 0.93 / 1.02 | 2.21 / 1.18 |
| 6 | Liverpool | +2.65 | +0.26 | 4 | 10 | 15.83 | 13.18 | 14 | 10 | -1.83 | 1.24 / 1.32 | 1.92 / 1.32 |
| 7 | Leeds United | +0.63 | +0.06 | 9 | 10 | 13.18 | 12.55 | 10 | 8 | -3.18 | 1.63 / 1.05 | 1.01 / 1.46 |
| 8 | Fulham | +0.52 | +0.05 | 15 | 10 | 14.42 | 13.90 | 10 | 12 | -4.42 | 1.63 / 1.42 | 1.25 / 1.36 |
| 9 | Tottenham Hotspur | +0.39 | +0.04 | 11 | 10 | 12.41 | 12.02 | 10 | 11 | -2.41 | 1.54 / 0.80 | 0.94 / 1.60 |
| 10 | Brentford | -0.15 | -0.01 | 8 | 10 | 14.63 | 14.78 | 16 | 11 | +1.37 | 1.81 / 1.12 | 1.11 / 1.83 |
| 11 | Manchester United | -0.30 | -0.03 | 18 | 10 | 17.57 | 17.87 | 14 | 19 | -3.57 | 2.26 / 1.96 | 1.26 / 1.61 |
| 12 | Everton | -0.37 | -0.04 | 6 | 10 | 13.83 | 14.20 | 12 | 10 | -1.83 | 1.25 / 1.35 | 1.52 / 1.49 |
| 13 | SunderlandGoals behind xG | -0.83 | -0.08 | 19 | 10 | 15.58 | 16.41 | 8 | 17 | -7.58 | 1.55 / 1.13 | 1.57 / 2.15 |
| 14 | Chelsea | -0.98 | -0.10 | 5 | 10 | 14.01 | 14.99 | 19 | 16 | +4.99 | 1.68 / 1.23 | 1.12 / 1.77 |
| 15 | Aston Villa | -4.82 | -0.48 | 10 | 10 | 13.80 | 18.62 | 14 | 17 | +0.20 | 1.17 / 1.64 | 1.59 / 2.09 |
| 16 | Hull City | -5.05 | -0.51 | 13 | 10 | 9.47 | 14.52 | 11 | 11 | +1.53 | 1.05 / 1.65 | 0.84 / 1.26 |
| 17 | Newcastle United | -5.18 | -0.52 | 12 | 10 | 11.54 | 16.72 | 13 | 16 | +1.46 | 1.20 / 1.97 | 1.11 / 1.37 |
| 18 | Coventry City | -5.62 | -0.56 | 17 | 10 | 9.51 | 15.13 | 10 | 19 | +0.49 | 1.06 / 1.55 | 0.84 / 1.48 |
| 19 | Ipswich Town | -5.92 | -0.59 | 14 | 10 | 13.52 | 19.44 | 15 | 20 | +1.48 | 1.08 / 1.54 | 1.62 / 2.35 |
| 20 | Crystal Palace | -8.09 | -0.81 | 20 | 10 | 13.78 | 21.87 | 10 | 24 | -3.78 | 1.58 / 2.17 | 1.18 / 2.21 |
Sorted by total xG difference in this window. xGD / P is the difference per match; compare it alongside P when clubs have played different numbers of games. Form bars show up to the latest ten matches in this window, oldest first. Pos is the season position on points. Home and away are xG for and against per match. Flags use the season, regardless of the selected window. GF-xG is goals minus xG: a positive number is more goals than the shots were worth.
- xGD
- xG for minus xG against. The table is sorted on this total.
- xGD / P
- xG difference per match. Useful when clubs have played different numbers of games.
- Form bars
- The latest matches in this window, oldest first. Above the line is positive xGD; below is negative. All clubs use the same scale.
- Pos
- Season position on points.
- P
- League matches actually played in this window.
- xGF / xGA
- Expected goals for and against.
- GF / GA
- Goals for and against.
- GF-xG
- Goals minus xG. Positive is more goals than the shots were worth.
- Home / Away
- xG for / against per match, at home and away.
- Flags
- Season goals against xG, regardless of the selected window. The Stop Press explains each flag.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Brighton & Hove Albion
- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.7 ahead of xG across 10 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.6 below xG against across 10 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
- Nottingham Forest
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.7 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
- Sunderland
- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 7.6 behind xG across 10 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
A flag needs eight matches, a gap of at least six goals, and at least 0.40 of a goal per match. It is a marker for Chapter 20’s regression question. It is not a selection.
Home advantage, this season
- Home xG average
- 1.57
- Away xG average
- 1.36
Home sides in the Premier League are averaging 1.57 xG. Away sides are averaging 1.36. That gap is this season’s home advantage, estimated from the shots, not a constant carried over from a textbook.
Fair prices from xG
The next eight days, priced from season home and away xG with a four-match shrinkage towards the league average. These are the model’s probabilities and the fair fractional odds that fall out of them. The margin is already off. They are not a bookmaker’s price, and they are not a suggestion to bet. Plain Poisson, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30
Manchester City v Fulham
Expected home goals 1.90 · expected away goals 1.47
Over 2.5 goals 65.5% (10/19) · both teams to score 65.6% (10/19)
Home
47.7%
11/10 (2.10)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.50)
Away
30.1%
51/22 (3.32)
Compare teams & see the workings: Manchester City v Fulham
Home side
Manchester City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.44
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.69
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.31
- Venue defence rating
- 1.14
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Manchester City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
xG 1.76 for · 1.06 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.64 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Away
Aston Villa1–2xG 1.56 for · 0.61 against
17 Oct · Home
Ipswich Town3–2xG 3.35 for · 1.86 against
11 Oct · Away
Liverpool3–0xG 1.28 for · 0.94 against
Away side
Fulham
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.25
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.36
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.32
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 0.93
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Fulham’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 0.70 for · 1.14 against
31 Oct · Away
Aston Villa1–1xG 2.24 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 0.55 for · 0.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.38 for · 0.16 against
10 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–2xG 1.81 for · 1.15 against
Expected home goals 1.90 · expected away goals 1.47.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester City expected goals 1.90, Fulham 1.47: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester City goals down, Fulham goals across.
| Manchester City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Manchester City win, per cent
- 47.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Fulham win, per cent
- 30.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53
Over 2.5 goals 60.1% (2/3) · both teams to score 62.2% (14/23)
Home
39.2%
31/20 (2.55)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
37.0%
17/10 (2.70)
Compare teams & see the workings: AFC Bournemouth v Nottingham Forest
Home side
AFC Bournemouth
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.04
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.95
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +1.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.17
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from AFC Bournemouth’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Ipswich Town2–1xG 2.23 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–0xG 1.29 for · 0.71 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 2.15 for · 1.17 against
18 Oct · Home
Sunderland2–0xG 4.23 for · 0.07 against
10 Oct · Away
Chelsea1–5xG 1.38 for · 1.10 against
Away side
Nottingham Forest
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.21
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.18
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.44
- Venue attack rating
- 1.35
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Nottingham Forest’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Away
Brentford0–2xG 0.86 for · 0.46 against
23 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.29 for · 0.46 against
18 Oct · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.14 against
11 Oct · Away
xG 3.34 for · 2.41 against
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.53.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
AFC Bournemouth expected goals 1.58, Nottingham Forest 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. AFC Bournemouth goals down, Nottingham Forest goals across.
| AFC Bournemouth goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- AFC Bournemouth win, per cent
- 39.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 37.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.64
Over 2.5 goals 63.4% (11/19) · both teams to score 64.8% (13/24)
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.62)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
38.7%
19/12 (2.58)
Compare teams & see the workings: Aston Villa v Sunderland
Home side
Aston Villa
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.17
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.64
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.09
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 1.11
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Aston Villa’s side.
Away side
Sunderland
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.15
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.20
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 1.21
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Sunderland’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Chelsea1–0xG 2.38 for · 0.66 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.82 for · 0.69 against
25 Oct · Home
Leeds United0–0xG 0.83 for · 0.76 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.07 for · 4.23 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.72 for · 1.41 against
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.64.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Aston Villa expected goals 1.63, Sunderland 1.64: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Aston Villa goals down, Sunderland goals across.
| Aston Villa goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Sunderland win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 63.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Chelsea v Leeds United
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 1.10
Over 2.5 goals 50.0% (1/1) · both teams to score 52.9% (8/9)
Home
48.1%
14/13 (2.08)
Draw
25.1%
71/24 (3.98)
Away
26.7%
63/23 (3.74)
Compare teams & see the workings: Chelsea v Leeds United
Home side
Chelsea
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.68
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.23
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chelsea’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Sunderland0–1xG 0.66 for · 2.38 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.01 for · 1.24 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.47 for · 0.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Everton2–0xG 1.47 for · 0.43 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.10 for · 1.38 against
Away side
Leeds United
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.01
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.06
- Venue attack rating
- 0.86
- Venue defence rating
- 0.96
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leeds United’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.96 for · 0.72 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.71 for · 1.29 against
25 Oct · Away
Sunderland0–0xG 0.76 for · 0.83 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 0.92 against
10 Oct · Away
Arsenal1–2xG 0.62 for · 2.33 against
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 1.10.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Chelsea expected goals 1.57, Leeds United 1.10: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chelsea goals down, Leeds United goals across.
| Chelsea goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 48.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.1%
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 26.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Coventry City v Crystal Palace
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.36
Over 2.5 goals 56.2% (18/23) · both teams to score 58.9% (16/23)
Home
42.6%
31/23 (2.35)
Draw
24.5%
34/11 (4.09)
Away
32.9%
49/24 (3.04)
Compare teams & see the workings: Coventry City v Crystal Palace
Home side
Coventry City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.06
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.55
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.08
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Coventry City’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Everton1–3xG 1.21 for · 1.43 against
31 Oct · Home
Sunderland3–1xG 0.69 for · 1.82 against
24 Oct · Home
Fulham0–1xG 0.51 for · 0.55 against
19 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.86 against
12 Oct · Home
xG 1.47 for · 1.84 against
Away side
Crystal Palace
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.18
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.21
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.86
- Venue attack rating
- 0.93
- Venue defence rating
- 1.23
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crystal Palace’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Liverpool1–3xG 2.60 for · 2.65 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.14 for · 3.47 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.59 for · 0.95 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 2.00 against
11 Oct · Home
xG 2.41 for · 3.34 against
Expected home goals 1.58 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Coventry City expected goals 1.58, Crystal Palace 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Coventry City goals down, Crystal Palace goals across.
| Coventry City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.4 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 42.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.5%
- Crystal Palace win, per cent
- 32.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00
Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16
Over 2.5 goals 60.8% (9/14) · both teams to score 59.2% (11/16)
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
21.6%
29/8 (4.62)
Away
21.9%
82/23 (4.57)
Compare teams & see the workings: Tottenham Hotspur v Ipswich Town
Home side
Tottenham Hotspur
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.54
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.80
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.60
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.77
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tottenham Hotspur’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Leeds United0–1xG 0.72 for · 1.96 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.47 for · 0.14 against
24 Oct · Away
Chelsea2–0xG 0.74 for · 0.47 against
19 Oct · Home
xG 0.86 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.62 for · 0.80 against
Away side
Ipswich Town
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.62
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 1.11
- Venue defence rating
- 1.28
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Ipswich Town’s side.
Expected home goals 1.98 · expected away goals 1.16.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Tottenham Hotspur expected goals 1.98, Ipswich Town 1.16: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tottenham Hotspur goals down, Ipswich Town goals across.
| Tottenham Hotspur goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Tottenham Hotspur win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.6%
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 21.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 17:30
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68
Over 2.5 goals 53.3% (7/8) · both teams to score 55.0% (9/11)
Home
25.5%
35/12 (3.92)
Draw
24.2%
22/7 (4.14)
Away
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
Compare teams & see the workings: Newcastle United v Arsenal
Home side
Newcastle United
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.20
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.97
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.27
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 1.25
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newcastle United’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Fulham1–1xG 1.14 for · 0.70 against
2 Nov · Home
Everton0–1xG 1.29 for · 2.34 against
25 Oct · Away
xG 0.95 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
Aston Villa0–1xG 0.99 for · 1.57 against
12 Oct · Away
xG 1.84 for · 1.47 against
Away side
Arsenal
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.33
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.08
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.74
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.83
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Arsenal’s side.
7 Nov · Home
Hull City1–0xG 1.26 for · 0.36 against
1 Nov · Away
Liverpool1–0xG 0.98 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Home
Everton2–0xG 1.96 for · 0.63 against
18 Oct · Away
xG 1.14 for · 0.90 against
10 Oct · Home
Leeds United2–1xG 2.33 for · 0.62 against
Expected home goals 1.13 · expected away goals 1.68.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Newcastle United expected goals 1.13, Arsenal 1.68: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newcastle United goals down, Arsenal goals across.
| Newcastle United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Newcastle United win, per cent
- 25.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Arsenal win, per cent
- 50.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 14:00
Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.66
Over 2.5 goals 56.4% (17/22) · both teams to score 58.5% (17/24)
Home
29.5%
55/23 (3.39)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
46.4%
15/13 (2.15)
Compare teams & see the workings: Hull City v Brighton & Hove Albion
Home side
Hull City
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.05
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.65
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.46
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.12
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Hull City’s side.
7 Nov · Away
Arsenal0–1xG 0.36 for · 1.26 against
31 Oct · Home
Ipswich Town2–2xG 0.78 for · 1.06 against
25 Oct · Home
Brentford1–1xG 1.57 for · 1.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Fulham0–1xG 0.16 for · 1.38 against
11 Oct · Home
Everton2–2xG 1.33 for · 1.68 against
Away side
Brighton & Hove Albion
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.59
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.56
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.43
- Venue attack rating
- 1.10
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Brighton & Hove Albion’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Brentford2–0xG 2.11 for · 0.59 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 1.00 for · 1.64 against
25 Oct · Away
Liverpool0–2xG 1.32 for · 1.20 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 2.00 for · 0.77 against
10 Oct · Away
Sunderland2–0xG 1.41 for · 0.72 against
Expected home goals 1.28 · expected away goals 1.66.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Hull City expected goals 1.28, Brighton & Hove Albion 1.66: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Hull City goals down, Brighton & Hove Albion goals across.
| Hull City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Hull City win, per cent
- 29.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Brighton & Hove Albion win, per cent
- 46.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 22 Nov, 16:30
Liverpool v Manchester United
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.28
Over 2.5 goals 50.4% (1/1) · both teams to score 54.5% (5/6)
Home
40.1%
3/2 (2.49)
Draw
25.8%
23/8 (3.87)
Away
34.1%
29/15 (2.93)
Compare teams & see the workings: Liverpool v Manchester United
Home side
Liverpool
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.24
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Liverpool’s side.
Away side
Manchester United
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.61
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.57
- Venue attack rating
- 0.96
- Venue defence rating
- 1.02
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Manchester United’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Aston Villa4–4xG 3.55 for · 2.88 against
31 Oct · Away
Chelsea0–2xG 1.24 for · 3.01 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 2.15 against
18 Oct · Away
Leeds United1–1xG 0.92 for · 1.41 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.80 for · 1.62 against
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.28.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Liverpool expected goals 1.41, Manchester United 1.28: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Liverpool goals down, Manchester United goals across.
| Liverpool goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 40.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.8%
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 34.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Mon 23 Nov, 20:00
Brentford v Everton
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.31
Over 2.5 goals 56.9% (16/21) · both teams to score 59.0% (16/23)
Home
45.6%
25/21 (2.19)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
30.3%
23/10 (3.30)
Compare teams & see the workings: Brentford v Everton
Home side
Brentford
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.81
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.12
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.32
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Brentford’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 0.59 for · 2.11 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.46 for · 0.86 against
25 Oct · Away
Hull City1–1xG 1.74 for · 1.57 against
17 Oct · Home
Liverpool1–2xG 0.88 for · 1.64 against
10 Oct · Away
Aston Villa2–2xG 1.06 for · 2.28 against
Away side
Everton
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.52
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.49
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 1.07
- Venue defence rating
- 0.97
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Everton’s side.
Expected home goals 1.66 · expected away goals 1.31.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Brentford expected goals 1.66, Everton 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Brentford goals down, Everton goals across.
| Brentford goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Brentford win, per cent
- 45.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Everton win, per cent
- 30.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Fri 27 Nov, 20:00
Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.06
Over 2.5 goals 41.8% (32/23) · both teams to score 47.4% (10/9)
Home
42.1%
11/8 (2.38)
Draw
27.7%
60/23 (3.61)
Away
30.2%
37/16 (3.31)
Compare teams & see the workings: Nottingham Forest v Chelsea
Home side
Nottingham Forest
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.93
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.02
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.44
- Venue attack rating
- 0.77
- Venue defence rating
- 0.86
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Nottingham Forest’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.76 against
31 Oct · Away
Brentford0–2xG 0.86 for · 0.46 against
23 Oct · Away
Ipswich Town1–1xG 2.29 for · 0.46 against
18 Oct · Home
Arsenal0–1xG 0.90 for · 1.14 against
11 Oct · Away
xG 3.34 for · 2.41 against
Away side
Chelsea
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.12
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Chelsea’s side.
8 Nov · Away
Sunderland0–1xG 0.66 for · 2.38 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.01 for · 1.24 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.47 for · 0.74 against
17 Oct · Away
Everton2–0xG 1.47 for · 0.43 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.10 for · 1.38 against
Expected home goals 1.30 · expected away goals 1.06.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Nottingham Forest expected goals 1.30, Chelsea 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Nottingham Forest goals down, Chelsea goals across.
| Nottingham Forest goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Nottingham Forest win, per cent
- 42.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.7%
- Chelsea win, per cent
- 30.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 41.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Leeds United v Coventry City
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.94
Over 2.5 goals 45.3% (29/24) · both teams to score 47.9% (25/23)
Home
51.6%
15/16 (1.94)
Draw
25.6%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
22.8%
71/21 (4.38)
Compare teams & see the workings: Leeds United v Coventry City
Home side
Leeds United
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.63
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.05
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.06
- Venue attack rating
- 1.02
- Venue defence rating
- 0.87
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Leeds United’s side.
7 Nov · Home
xG 1.96 for · 0.72 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.71 for · 1.29 against
25 Oct · Away
Sunderland0–0xG 0.76 for · 0.83 against
18 Oct · Home
xG 1.41 for · 0.92 against
10 Oct · Away
Arsenal1–2xG 0.62 for · 2.33 against
Away side
Coventry City
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.84
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.48
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.38
- Venue attack rating
- 0.79
- Venue defence rating
- 0.97
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Coventry City’s side.
6 Nov · Away
Everton1–3xG 1.21 for · 1.43 against
31 Oct · Home
Sunderland3–1xG 0.69 for · 1.82 against
24 Oct · Home
Fulham0–1xG 0.51 for · 0.55 against
19 Oct · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.86 against
12 Oct · Home
xG 1.47 for · 1.84 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.94.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Leeds United expected goals 1.55, Coventry City 0.94: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Leeds United goals down, Coventry City goals across.
| Leeds United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Leeds United win, per cent
- 51.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.6%
- Coventry City win, per cent
- 22.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00
Manchester United v Brentford
Expected home goals 2.14 · expected away goals 1.52
Over 2.5 goals 70.8% (7/17) · both teams to score 69.0% (9/20)
Home
51.8%
14/15 (1.93)
Draw
20.8%
80/21 (4.81)
Away
27.4%
37/14 (3.64)
Compare teams & see the workings: Manchester United v Brentford
Home side
Manchester United
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.26
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.96
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.57
- Venue attack rating
- 1.25
- Venue defence rating
- 1.25
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Manchester United’s side.
8 Nov · Home
Aston Villa4–4xG 3.55 for · 2.88 against
31 Oct · Away
Chelsea0–2xG 1.24 for · 3.01 against
25 Oct · Home
xG 1.17 for · 2.15 against
18 Oct · Away
Leeds United1–1xG 0.92 for · 1.41 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.80 for · 1.62 against
Away side
Brentford
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.11
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.83
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.32
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 1.10
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Brentford’s side.
8 Nov · Away
xG 0.59 for · 2.11 against
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.46 for · 0.86 against
25 Oct · Away
Hull City1–1xG 1.74 for · 1.57 against
17 Oct · Home
Liverpool1–2xG 0.88 for · 1.64 against
10 Oct · Away
Aston Villa2–2xG 1.06 for · 2.28 against
Expected home goals 2.14 · expected away goals 1.52.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Manchester United expected goals 2.14, Brentford 1.52: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Manchester United goals down, Brentford goals across.
| Manchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Manchester United win, per cent
- 51.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 20.8%
- Brentford win, per cent
- 27.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 70.8%
- Most likely score
- 2-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 17:30
Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.59
Over 2.5 goals 60.6% (15/23) · both teams to score 62.6% (3/5)
Home
37.0%
29/17 (2.70)
Draw
23.7%
74/23 (4.22)
Away
39.3%
37/24 (2.54)
Compare teams & see the workings: Ipswich Town v Aston Villa
Home side
Ipswich Town
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.08
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.91
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Ipswich Town’s side.
Away side
Aston Villa
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.59
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.09
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.09
- Venue attack rating
- 1.09
- Venue defence rating
- 1.19
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Aston Villa’s side.
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.59.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Ipswich Town expected goals 1.54, Aston Villa 1.59: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Ipswich Town goals down, Aston Villa goals across.
| Ipswich Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Ipswich Town win, per cent
- 37.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.7%
- Aston Villa win, per cent
- 39.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sun 29 Nov, 12:00
Everton v Liverpool
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.67
Over 2.5 goals 56.2% (7/9) · both teams to score 58.3% (5/7)
Home
29.1%
56/23 (3.44)
Draw
24.1%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
46.8%
25/22 (2.14)
Compare teams & see the workings: Everton v Liverpool
Home side
Everton
- Season home matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.25
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.01
- Venue attack rating
- 0.89
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Everton’s side.
Away side
Liverpool
- Season away matches
- 5
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.92
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.32
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.21
- Venue attack rating
- 1.23
- Venue defence rating
- 0.91
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Liverpool’s side.
Expected home goals 1.27 · expected away goals 1.67.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Everton expected goals 1.27, Liverpool 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Everton goals down, Liverpool goals across.
| Everton goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Everton win, per cent
- 29.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Liverpool win, per cent
- 46.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
