League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Port Vale
19th on points, with 15. 7th on season xG difference. 12 league matches, 16.00 xG for, 12.34 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +3.66
- GF minus xG
- -6.00
- Last 10 xGD
- +3.50
- xG per match
- 1.33
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 12 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.33
- xG against / match
- 1.03
- xGD / match
- +0.30
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.37
- xG against / match
- 1.02
- xGD / match
- +0.35
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.50
- xG against / match
- 0.94
- xGD / match
- +0.55
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.13 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.75. Away attack 0.76 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.90.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Port Vale v Accrington Stanley, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 56.5% (10/13), draw 23.4% (59/18), away 20.1% (95/24). Expected home goals 1.76, expected away goals 0.95. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
Home side
Port Vale
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.93
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.71
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 0.75
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Port Vale’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Rochdale4–2xG 3.35 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Away
York City0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.06 against
20 Oct · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.75 for · 1.88 against
17 Oct · Home
Chesterfield1–0xG 0.27 for · 0.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–0xG 3.18 for · 0.45 against
Away side
Accrington Stanley
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.29
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.55
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.98
- Venue attack rating
- 1.04
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Accrington Stanley’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.50 for · 0.67 against
24 Oct · Away
Rochdale5–0xG 2.19 for · 0.34 against
20 Oct · Away
York City1–1xG 1.07 for · 1.49 against
17 Oct · Home
Gillingham3–1xG 1.54 for · 0.52 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 0.23 against
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.95.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.76, Accrington Stanley 0.95: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Accrington Stanley goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 20.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.0 behind xG across 12 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Port Vale’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Rochdale4–2xG 3.35 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Away
York City0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.06 against
20 Oct · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.75 for · 1.88 against
17 Oct · Home
Chesterfield1–0xG 0.27 for · 0.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–0xG 3.18 for · 0.45 against
19 Sept · Away
Walsall0–2xG 0.54 for · 0.87 against
12 Sept · Home
Exeter City1–0xG 1.95 for · 0.55 against
5 Sept · Away
Salford City0–1xG 0.68 for · 0.32 against
1 Sept · Away
Swindon Town1–3xG 1.03 for · 2.49 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.18 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.79 for · 0.71 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.51 for · 1.43 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Rochdale | 4-2 | 3.35 | 1.05 | +0.65 |
| 24 Oct | A | York City | 0-2 | 0.89 | 1.06 | -0.89 |
| 20 Oct | A | Gillingham | 1-1 | 0.75 | 1.88 | +0.25 |
| 17 Oct | H | Chesterfield | 1-0 | 0.27 | 0.35 | +0.73 |
| 10 Oct | H | Grimsby Town | 1-0 | 3.18 | 0.45 | -2.18 |
| 19 Sept | A | Walsall | 0-2 | 0.54 | 0.87 | -0.54 |
| 12 Sept | H | Exeter City | 1-0 | 1.95 | 0.55 | -0.95 |
| 5 Sept | A | Salford City | 0-1 | 0.68 | 0.32 | -0.68 |
| 1 Sept | A | Swindon Town | 1-3 | 1.03 | 2.49 | -0.03 |
| 29 Aug | H | Crewe Alexandra | 0-0 | 1.06 | 1.18 | -1.06 |
| 22 Aug | H | Tranmere Rovers | 1-1 | 1.79 | 0.71 | -0.79 |
| 15 Aug | A | Oldham Athletic | 0-2 | 0.51 | 1.43 | -0.51 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.95
Home
56.5%
10/13 (1.77)
Draw
23.4%
59/18 (4.28)
Away
20.1%
95/24 (4.97)
The model: Port Vale v Accrington Stanley
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.76, Accrington Stanley 0.95: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Accrington Stanley goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.1 | 5.3 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 56.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 20.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
22.7%
58/17 (4.41)
Away
19.7%
49/12 (5.08)
The model: Barnet v Port Vale
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.84, Port Vale 0.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Home
Port Vale v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 0.76
Home
59.9%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
23.6%
42/13 (4.23)
Away
16.4%
61/12 (6.08)
The model: Port Vale v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.71, Northampton Town 0.76: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 59.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 16.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Port Vale v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 0.81
Home
60.0%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
23.1%
73/22 (4.32)
Away
16.9%
64/13 (5.92)
The model: Port Vale v Newport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.76, Newport County 0.81: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 60.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.1%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 16.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
36.7%
19/11 (2.73)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
36.0%
39/22 (2.77)
The model: Crawley Town v Port Vale
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.24, Port Vale 1.22: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 36.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 36.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
