League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Walsall
3rd on points, with 22. 8th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 22.91 xG for, 20.56 against, goal difference +9.
- Season xGD
- +2.35
- GF minus xG
- -1.91
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.46
- xG per match
- 1.76
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.76
- xG against / match
- 1.58
- xGD / match
- +0.18
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.64
- xG against / match
- 1.59
- xGD / match
- +0.05
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.91
- xG against / match
- 2.00
- xGD / match
- -0.08
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.08 from 6 home matches. Home defence 1.06. Away attack 1.27 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.08.
No fixture for Walsall in the next eight days.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 8.6 below xG against across 13 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Walsall’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 3.14 for · 2.17 against
26 Oct · Home
Salford City2–4xG 2.13 for · 2.39 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 2.53 for · 1.52 against
17 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–1xG 1.96 for · 2.06 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.89 for · 1.57 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 0.81 for · 2.26 against
19 Sept · Home
Port Vale2–0xG 0.87 for · 0.54 against
12 Sept · Home
Rochdale0–0xG 1.83 for · 0.40 against
5 Sept · Away
Exeter City0–0xG 0.40 for · 1.52 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.82 for · 1.49 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 2.22 for · 2.29 against
22 Aug · Home
Grimsby Town0–0xG 1.21 for · 0.90 against
15 Aug · Away
Gillingham3–0xG 3.10 for · 1.45 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Colchester United | 3-1 | 3.14 | 2.17 | -0.14 |
| 26 Oct | H | Salford City | 2-4 | 2.13 | 2.39 | -0.13 |
| 20 Oct | H | Oldham Athletic | 3-0 | 2.53 | 1.52 | +0.47 |
| 17 Oct | A | Swindon Town | 1-1 | 1.96 | 2.06 | -0.96 |
| 10 Oct | A | Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | 0.89 | 1.57 | +0.11 |
| 26 Sept | A | Tranmere Rovers | 1-1 | 0.81 | 2.26 | +0.19 |
| 19 Sept | H | Port Vale | 2-0 | 0.87 | 0.54 | +1.13 |
| 12 Sept | H | Rochdale | 0-0 | 1.83 | 0.40 | -1.83 |
| 5 Sept | A | Exeter City | 0-0 | 0.40 | 1.52 | -0.40 |
| 1 Sept | A | Crewe Alexandra | 2-2 | 1.82 | 1.49 | +0.18 |
| 29 Aug | H | Accrington Stanley | 3-2 | 2.22 | 2.29 | +0.78 |
| 22 Aug | H | Grimsby Town | 0-0 | 1.21 | 0.90 | -1.21 |
| 15 Aug | A | Gillingham | 3-0 | 3.10 | 1.45 | -0.10 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
50.9%
23/24 (1.96)
Draw
22.5%
79/23 (4.44)
Away
26.6%
47/17 (3.76)
The model: York City v Walsall
The model
What the expected goals say
York City expected goals 1.87, Walsall 1.30: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. York City goals down, Walsall goals across.
| York City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.2 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.0 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- York City win, per cent
- 50.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.5%
- Walsall win, per cent
- 26.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Walsall v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.07
Home
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
24.7%
55/18 (4.06)
Away
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
The model: Walsall v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Walsall expected goals 1.63, Northampton Town 1.07: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Walsall goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Walsall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Walsall win, per cent
- 50.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 25.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
41.9%
18/13 (2.39)
Draw
23.9%
35/11 (4.18)
Away
34.2%
27/14 (2.93)
The model: Newport County v Walsall
The model
What the expected goals say
Newport County expected goals 1.62, Walsall 1.44: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newport County goals down, Walsall goals across.
| Newport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.9 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Newport County win, per cent
- 41.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.9%
- Walsall win, per cent
- 34.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 59.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
44.7%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
22.2%
7/2 (4.49)
Away
33.1%
49/24 (3.02)
The model: Walsall v Crawley Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Walsall expected goals 1.86, Crawley Town 1.58: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Walsall goals down, Crawley Town goals across.
| Walsall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Walsall win, per cent
- 44.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.2%
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 33.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 67.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Rotherham United v Walsall
Expected home goals 1.76 · expected away goals 1.84
Home
37.5%
5/3 (2.67)
Draw
21.9%
82/23 (4.56)
Away
40.6%
22/15 (2.46)
The model: Rotherham United v Walsall
The model
What the expected goals say
Rotherham United expected goals 1.76, Walsall 1.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rotherham United goals down, Walsall goals across.
| Rotherham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 37.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.9%
- Walsall win, per cent
- 40.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 2.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 69.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
