League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Colchester United
23rd on points, with 12. 19th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 16.29 xG for, 20.65 against, goal difference -7.
- Season xGD
- -4.36
- GF minus xG
- -4.29
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.76
- xG per match
- 1.25
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.25
- xG against / match
- 1.59
- xGD / match
- -0.34
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.21
- xG against / match
- 1.68
- xGD / match
- -0.48
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.26
- xG against / match
- 1.60
- xGD / match
- -0.34
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.97 from 6 home matches. Home defence 0.95. Away attack 0.89 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.16.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Colchester United v Gillingham, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 46.3% (22/19), draw 25.3% (53/18), away 28.3% (43/17). Expected home goals 1.54, expected away goals 1.14. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Colchester United v Gillingham
Home side
Colchester United
- Season home matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.53
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.12
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.34
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Colchester United’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Walsall1–3xG 2.17 for · 3.14 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
20 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–1xG 0.92 for · 2.34 against
17 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–0xG 1.33 for · 0.36 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 1.60 against
Away side
Gillingham
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.19
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.57
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.31
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Gillingham’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 2.03 for · 1.83 against
24 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–4xG 1.15 for · 2.83 against
20 Oct · Home
Port Vale1–1xG 1.88 for · 0.75 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.52 for · 1.54 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.86 for · 1.38 against
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.14.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Colchester United expected goals 1.54, Gillingham 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Colchester United goals down, Gillingham goals across.
| Colchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 46.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 28.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Colchester United’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Walsall1–3xG 2.17 for · 3.14 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.05 for · 0.78 against
20 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–1xG 0.92 for · 2.34 against
17 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–0xG 1.33 for · 0.36 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.61 for · 1.60 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.46 for · 1.38 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.87 for · 1.53 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 1.30 for · 0.64 against
5 Sept · Away
Swindon Town1–3xG 1.49 for · 2.06 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 0.86 for · 2.99 against
29 Aug · Home
Rochdale1–0xG 1.12 for · 0.78 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 2.37 for · 0.27 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.74 for · 2.78 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Walsall | 1-3 | 2.17 | 3.14 | -1.17 |
| 24 Oct | A | Northampton Town | 0-2 | 1.05 | 0.78 | -1.05 |
| 20 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1-1 | 0.92 | 2.34 | +0.08 |
| 17 Oct | H | Exeter City | 0-0 | 1.33 | 0.36 | -1.33 |
| 10 Oct | A | Newport County | 0-1 | 0.61 | 1.60 | -0.61 |
| 26 Sept | A | Shrewsbury Town | 2-2 | 1.46 | 1.38 | +0.54 |
| 19 Sept | H | Cheltenham Town | 1-1 | 0.87 | 1.53 | +0.13 |
| 12 Sept | H | Crewe Alexandra | 1-1 | 1.30 | 0.64 | -0.30 |
| 5 Sept | A | Swindon Town | 1-3 | 1.49 | 2.06 | -0.49 |
| 1 Sept | A | Bristol Rovers | 0-2 | 0.86 | 2.99 | -0.86 |
| 29 Aug | H | Rochdale | 1-0 | 1.12 | 0.78 | -0.12 |
| 22 Aug | H | Oldham Athletic | 2-1 | 2.37 | 0.27 | -0.37 |
| 15 Aug | A | Accrington Stanley | 2-2 | 0.74 | 2.78 | +1.26 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Colchester United v Gillingham
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.14
Home
46.3%
22/19 (2.16)
Draw
25.3%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
The model: Colchester United v Gillingham
The model
What the expected goals say
Colchester United expected goals 1.54, Gillingham 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Colchester United goals down, Gillingham goals across.
| Colchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 46.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 28.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Tranmere Rovers v Colchester United
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
27.1%
35/13 (3.69)
The model: Tranmere Rovers v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Tranmere Rovers expected goals 1.71, Colchester United 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tranmere Rovers goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Tranmere Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 27.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Colchester United v York City
Expected home goals 1.56 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
43.2%
25/19 (2.32)
Draw
24.7%
70/23 (4.04)
Away
32.1%
36/17 (3.12)
The model: Colchester United v York City
The model
What the expected goals say
Colchester United expected goals 1.56, York City 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Colchester United goals down, York City goals across.
| Colchester United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 43.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- York City win, per cent
- 32.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 54.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Grimsby Town v Colchester United
Expected home goals 2.48 · expected away goals 0.96
Home
70.6%
5/12 (1.42)
Draw
16.8%
119/24 (5.96)
Away
12.6%
76/11 (7.91)
The model: Grimsby Town v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Grimsby Town expected goals 2.48, Colchester United 0.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Grimsby Town goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Grimsby Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.1 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 70.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 16.8%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 12.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.9%
- Most likely score
- 2-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Salford City v Colchester United
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
53.4%
7/8 (1.87)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.00)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
The model: Salford City v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.61, Colchester United 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 53.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
