League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Exeter City
12th on points, with 19. 12th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 15.90 xG for, 15.18 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- +0.72
- GF minus xG
- -4.90
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.03
- xG per match
- 1.14
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.14
- xG against / match
- 1.08
- xGD / match
- +0.05
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.09
- xG against / match
- 1.09
- xGD / match
- +0.00
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.24
- xG against / match
- 0.94
- xGD / match
- +0.30
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.97 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.76. Away attack 0.75 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.92.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town, Sat 14 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 53.1% (15/17), draw 25.3% (62/21), away 21.6% (40/11). Expected home goals 1.57, expected away goals 0.90. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Home side
Exeter City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.53
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 0.76
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Exeter City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.74 for · 0.73 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.11 for · 0.99 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.83 for · 0.93 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.36 for · 1.33 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.17 against
Away side
Cheltenham Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.63
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.01
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cheltenham Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.58 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.52 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 3.03 for · 2.08 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.30 against
10 Oct · Home
Salford City0–2xG 0.25 for · 1.11 against
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.57, Cheltenham Town 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 53.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.2 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Exeter City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.74 for · 0.73 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.11 for · 0.99 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.83 for · 0.93 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.36 for · 1.33 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.17 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 2.18 for · 0.47 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 0.66 for · 2.02 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.73 for · 0.88 against
12 Sept · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.55 for · 1.95 against
5 Sept · Home
Walsall0–0xG 1.52 for · 0.40 against
1 Sept · Home
Barnet1–1xG 1.05 for · 1.02 against
29 Aug · Away
York City1–2xG 0.89 for · 1.18 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 2.31 for · 0.68 against
15 Aug · Away
Grimsby Town0–1xG 0.75 for · 1.43 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Salford City | 1-2 | 0.74 | 0.73 | +0.26 |
| 24 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | 1.11 | 0.99 | +0.89 |
| 20 Oct | H | Crewe Alexandra | 2-0 | 1.83 | 0.93 | +0.17 |
| 17 Oct | A | Colchester United | 0-0 | 0.36 | 1.33 | -0.36 |
| 10 Oct | A | Shrewsbury Town | 1-0 | 1.22 | 1.17 | -0.22 |
| 3 Oct | H | Rotherham United | 1-0 | 2.18 | 0.47 | -1.18 |
| 26 Sept | A | Bristol Rovers | 0-1 | 0.66 | 2.02 | -0.66 |
| 19 Sept | H | Tranmere Rovers | 0-0 | 0.73 | 0.88 | -0.73 |
| 12 Sept | A | Port Vale | 0-1 | 0.55 | 1.95 | -0.55 |
| 5 Sept | H | Walsall | 0-0 | 1.52 | 0.40 | -1.52 |
| 1 Sept | H | Barnet | 1-1 | 1.05 | 1.02 | -0.05 |
| 29 Aug | A | York City | 1-2 | 0.89 | 1.18 | +0.11 |
| 22 Aug | H | Accrington Stanley | 2-0 | 2.31 | 0.68 | -0.31 |
| 15 Aug | A | Grimsby Town | 0-1 | 0.75 | 1.43 | -0.75 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90
Home
53.1%
15/17 (1.88)
Draw
25.3%
62/21 (3.95)
Away
21.6%
40/11 (4.64)
The model: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.57, Cheltenham Town 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 53.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Oldham Athletic v Exeter City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
48.8%
21/20 (2.05)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
24.0%
73/23 (4.17)
The model: Oldham Athletic v Exeter City
The model
What the expected goals say
Oldham Athletic expected goals 1.40, Exeter City 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oldham Athletic goals down, Exeter City goals across.
| Oldham Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 48.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 24.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 10.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 40.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Home
Exeter City v Crawley Town
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.14
Home
50.2%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
24.1%
41/13 (4.15)
Away
25.8%
49/17 (3.88)
The model: Exeter City v Crawley Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.69, Crawley Town 1.14: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Crawley Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 50.2%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 25.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Chesterfield v Exeter City
Expected home goals 1.89 · expected away goals 0.78
Home
63.7%
4/7 (1.57)
Draw
21.5%
51/14 (4.64)
Away
14.8%
75/13 (6.77)
The model: Chesterfield v Exeter City
The model
What the expected goals say
Chesterfield expected goals 1.89, Exeter City 0.78: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Chesterfield goals down, Exeter City goals across.
| Chesterfield goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 13.1 | 10.2 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 63.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.5%
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 14.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
59.9%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
24.1%
63/20 (4.15)
Away
16.0%
21/4 (6.25)
The model: Exeter City v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.66, Rochdale 0.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 59.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 16.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
