League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Fleetwood Town
16th on points, with 17. 17th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 19.99 xG for, 23.53 against, goal difference +0.
- Season xGD
- -3.54
- GF minus xG
- -1.99
- Last 10 xGD
- -0.57
- xG per match
- 1.43
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.43
- xG against / match
- 1.68
- xGD / match
- -0.25
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.53
- xG against / match
- 1.58
- xGD / match
- -0.06
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.72
- xG against / match
- 1.42
- xGD / match
- +0.30
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.99 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.89. Away attack 1.04 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.30.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers, Sat 14 Nov, 17:30. The model’s fair prices are home 52.8% (17/19), draw 25.5% (67/23), away 21.6% (76/21). Expected home goals 1.55, expected away goals 0.89. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Home side
Fleetwood Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.56
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Fleetwood Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.19 for · 0.19 against
24 Oct · Away
Exeter City1–2xG 0.99 for · 1.11 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.08 for · 3.03 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.86 for · 1.28 against
10 Oct · Home
Walsall1–1xG 1.57 for · 0.89 against
Away side
Tranmere Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.56
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.61
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tranmere Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.00 for · 0.58 against
24 Oct · Away
Crawley Town1–1xG 1.19 for · 0.82 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.91 against
17 Oct · Home
Barnet1–2xG 1.12 for · 2.44 against
10 Oct · Home
Rochdale1–1xG 1.68 for · 0.97 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.55, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Fleetwood Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.19 for · 0.19 against
24 Oct · Away
Exeter City1–2xG 0.99 for · 1.11 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.08 for · 3.03 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.86 for · 1.28 against
10 Oct · Home
Walsall1–1xG 1.57 for · 0.89 against
3 Oct · Away
Salford City0–1xG 0.62 for · 2.04 against
26 Sept · Home
Rochdale1–2xG 1.52 for · 1.40 against
19 Sept · Away
Barnet1–3xG 1.58 for · 2.55 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.06 for · 2.64 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 0.80 for · 0.71 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 0.84 for · 1.42 against
29 Aug · Away
Grimsby Town2–2xG 1.61 for · 2.92 against
22 Aug · Home
Gillingham0–0xG 1.16 for · 1.18 against
15 Aug · Away
Chesterfield1–0xG 1.11 for · 2.17 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Bristol Rovers | 3-1 | 3.19 | 0.19 | -0.19 |
| 24 Oct | A | Exeter City | 1-2 | 0.99 | 1.11 | +0.01 |
| 20 Oct | A | Cheltenham Town | 2-4 | 2.08 | 3.03 | -0.08 |
| 17 Oct | H | Rotherham United | 2-0 | 1.86 | 1.28 | +0.14 |
| 10 Oct | H | Walsall | 1-1 | 1.57 | 0.89 | -0.57 |
| 3 Oct | A | Salford City | 0-1 | 0.62 | 2.04 | -0.62 |
| 26 Sept | H | Rochdale | 1-2 | 1.52 | 1.40 | -0.52 |
| 19 Sept | A | Barnet | 1-3 | 1.58 | 2.55 | -0.58 |
| 12 Sept | A | Newport County | 1-1 | 1.06 | 2.64 | -0.06 |
| 5 Sept | H | Shrewsbury Town | 2-0 | 0.80 | 0.71 | +1.20 |
| 1 Sept | H | Oldham Athletic | 1-1 | 0.84 | 1.42 | +0.16 |
| 29 Aug | A | Grimsby Town | 2-2 | 1.61 | 2.92 | +0.39 |
| 22 Aug | H | Gillingham | 0-0 | 1.16 | 1.18 | -1.16 |
| 15 Aug | A | Chesterfield | 1-0 | 1.11 | 2.17 | -0.11 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 17:30 · Home
Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
25.5%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
The model: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.55, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Crawley Town v Fleetwood Town
Expected home goals 1.78 · expected away goals 1.67
Home
41.1%
33/23 (2.44)
Draw
22.4%
83/24 (4.46)
Away
36.5%
40/23 (2.74)
The model: Crawley Town v Fleetwood Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.78, Fleetwood Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Fleetwood Town goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 41.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.4%
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 36.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 66.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Fleetwood Town v Accrington Stanley
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
46.9%
26/23 (2.13)
Draw
25.3%
56/19 (3.95)
Away
27.7%
60/23 (3.61)
The model: Fleetwood Town v Accrington Stanley
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.54, Accrington Stanley 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Accrington Stanley goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 46.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 27.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town
Expected home goals 1.53 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
46.5%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
28.0%
59/23 (3.57)
The model: Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Northampton Town expected goals 1.53, Fleetwood Town 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Northampton Town goals down, Fleetwood Town goals across.
| Northampton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 46.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 28.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Fleetwood Town v Swindon Town
Expected home goals 1.85 · expected away goals 0.87
Home
60.6%
13/20 (1.65)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
Away
17.1%
92/19 (5.84)
The model: Fleetwood Town v Swindon Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.85, Swindon Town 0.87: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 60.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 17.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
