League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Northampton Town
21st on points, with 14. 18th on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 11.81 xG for, 15.83 against, goal difference -1.
- Season xGD
- -4.02
- GF minus xG
- -2.81
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.33
- xG per match
- 0.91
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.91
- xG against / match
- 1.22
- xGD / match
- -0.31
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.99
- xG against / match
- 1.43
- xGD / match
- -0.43
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.23
- xG against / match
- 1.53
- xGD / match
- -0.30
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.74 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.89. Away attack 0.83 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.95.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Salford City v Northampton Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 47.3% (10/9), draw 28.3% (43/17), away 24.3% (59/19). Expected home goals 1.32, expected away goals 0.86. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Salford City v Northampton Town
Home side
Salford City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.27
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.92
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.47
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Salford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Exeter City2–1xG 0.73 for · 0.74 against
26 Oct · Away
Walsall4–2xG 2.39 for · 2.13 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Crawley Town2–1xG 1.75 for · 0.61 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.11 for · 0.25 against
Away side
Northampton Town
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Northampton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.03 for · 0.94 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.67 for · 1.50 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.91 for · 0.66 against
17 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–0xG 2.00 for · 2.71 against
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.32, Northampton Town 0.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 47.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.3%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 37.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Northampton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.03 for · 0.94 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.67 for · 1.50 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.91 for · 0.66 against
17 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–0xG 2.00 for · 2.71 against
10 Oct · Away
York City1–1xG 0.98 for · 2.31 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 1.06 for · 1.28 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.50 for · 0.87 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 0.45 for · 0.32 against
1 Sept · Home
Crawley Town1–1xG 0.55 for · 2.62 against
29 Aug · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.35 for · 0.89 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.77 for · 0.48 against
15 Aug · Home
Swindon Town0–0xG 0.76 for · 0.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov | H | Oldham Athletic | 0-1 | 1.03 | 0.94 | -1.03 |
| 31 Oct | A | Accrington Stanley | 1-1 | 0.67 | 1.50 | +0.33 |
| 24 Oct | H | Colchester United | 2-0 | 0.78 | 1.05 | +1.22 |
| 20 Oct | H | Tranmere Rovers | 0-1 | 1.91 | 0.66 | -1.91 |
| 17 Oct | A | Grimsby Town | 2-0 | 2.00 | 2.71 | 0.00 |
| 10 Oct | A | York City | 1-1 | 0.98 | 2.31 | +0.02 |
| 19 Sept | H | Rotherham United | 0-1 | 1.06 | 1.28 | -1.06 |
| 12 Sept | A | Shrewsbury Town | 0-2 | 0.50 | 0.87 | -0.50 |
| 5 Sept | H | Newport County | 1-0 | 0.45 | 0.32 | +0.55 |
| 1 Sept | H | Crawley Town | 1-1 | 0.55 | 2.62 | +0.45 |
| 29 Aug | A | Gillingham | 1-1 | 0.35 | 0.89 | +0.65 |
| 22 Aug | A | Crewe Alexandra | 0-1 | 0.77 | 0.48 | -0.77 |
| 15 Aug | H | Swindon Town | 0-0 | 0.76 | 0.20 | -0.76 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Salford City v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86
Home
47.3%
10/9 (2.11)
Draw
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Away
24.3%
59/19 (4.11)
The model: Salford City v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.32, Northampton Town 0.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 47.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.3%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 37.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Northampton Town v Rochdale
Expected home goals 1.25 · expected away goals 0.84
Home
45.9%
20/17 (2.18)
Draw
29.1%
17/7 (3.43)
Away
24.9%
3/1 (4.01)
The model: Northampton Town v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Northampton Town expected goals 1.25, Rochdale 0.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Northampton Town goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Northampton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 45.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.1%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 24.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 12.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 34.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 24 Nov, 19:45 · Away
Port Vale v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 0.76
Home
59.9%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
23.6%
42/13 (4.23)
Away
16.4%
61/12 (6.08)
The model: Port Vale v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Port Vale expected goals 1.71, Northampton Town 0.76: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Port Vale goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Port Vale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 59.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.6%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 16.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.8%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Walsall v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.63 · expected away goals 1.07
Home
50.3%
1/1 (1.99)
Draw
24.7%
55/18 (4.06)
Away
25.1%
3/1 (3.99)
The model: Walsall v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Walsall expected goals 1.63, Northampton Town 1.07: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Walsall goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Walsall goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Walsall win, per cent
- 50.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 25.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town
Expected home goals 1.53 · expected away goals 1.13
Home
46.5%
23/20 (2.15)
Draw
25.5%
41/14 (3.93)
Away
28.0%
59/23 (3.57)
The model: Northampton Town v Fleetwood Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Northampton Town expected goals 1.53, Fleetwood Town 1.13: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Northampton Town goals down, Fleetwood Town goals across.
| Northampton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 46.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 28.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 49.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
