League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Rochdale
20th on points, with 15. 24th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 11.76 xG for, 26.56 against, goal difference -9.
- Season xGD
- -14.80
- GF minus xG
- +5.24
- Last 10 xGD
- -11.15
- xG per match
- 0.84
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.84
- xG against / match
- 1.90
- xGD / match
- -1.06
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 0.95
- xG against / match
- 2.07
- xGD / match
- -1.12
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.09
- xG against / match
- 2.15
- xGD / match
- -1.06
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.72 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.42. Away attack 0.77 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.07.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Rochdale v York City, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 22.0% (85/24), draw 21.8% (43/12), away 56.2% (18/23). Expected home goals 1.15, expected away goals 1.96. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Rochdale v York City
Home side
Rochdale
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.89
- Venue xG against / match
- 2.03
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -1.06
- Venue attack rating
- 0.72
- Venue defence rating
- 1.42
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Rochdale’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Port Vale2–4xG 1.05 for · 3.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.34 for · 2.19 against
20 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town2–2xG 1.77 for · 2.89 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.75 for · 1.69 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.97 for · 1.68 against
Away side
York City
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.47
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.60
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.20
- Venue attack rating
- 1.13
- Venue defence rating
- 1.00
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from York City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–5xG 0.41 for · 2.58 against
27 Oct · Away
Barnet1–3xG 0.47 for · 1.84 against
24 Oct · Home
Port Vale2–0xG 1.06 for · 0.89 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.49 for · 1.07 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 1.57 for · 1.18 against
Expected home goals 1.15 · expected away goals 1.96.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Rochdale expected goals 1.15, York City 1.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rochdale goals down, York City goals across.
| Rochdale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- York City win, per cent
- 56.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Rochdale’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Port Vale2–4xG 1.05 for · 3.35 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.34 for · 2.19 against
20 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town2–2xG 1.77 for · 2.89 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.75 for · 1.69 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 0.97 for · 1.68 against
3 Oct · Home
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.64 for · 1.08 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.40 for · 1.52 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.40 for · 2.49 against
12 Sept · Away
Walsall0–0xG 0.40 for · 1.83 against
5 Sept · Home
Gillingham1–4xG 0.80 for · 1.95 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 0.77 for · 1.46 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.78 for · 1.12 against
22 Aug · Home
Crawley Town1–2xG 0.53 for · 2.16 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.16 for · 1.15 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Port Vale | 2-4 | 1.05 | 3.35 | +0.95 |
| 24 Oct | H | Accrington Stanley | 0-5 | 0.34 | 2.19 | -0.34 |
| 20 Oct | H | Grimsby Town | 2-2 | 1.77 | 2.89 | +0.23 |
| 17 Oct | A | Crewe Alexandra | 2-3 | 0.75 | 1.69 | +1.25 |
| 10 Oct | A | Tranmere Rovers | 1-1 | 0.97 | 1.68 | +0.03 |
| 3 Oct | H | Swindon Town | 1-0 | 1.64 | 1.08 | -0.64 |
| 26 Sept | A | Fleetwood Town | 2-1 | 1.40 | 1.52 | +0.60 |
| 19 Sept | H | Oldham Athletic | 2-0 | 0.40 | 2.49 | +1.60 |
| 12 Sept | A | Walsall | 0-0 | 0.40 | 1.83 | -0.40 |
| 5 Sept | H | Gillingham | 1-4 | 0.80 | 1.95 | +0.20 |
| 1 Sept | H | Shrewsbury Town | 3-0 | 0.77 | 1.46 | +2.23 |
| 29 Aug | A | Colchester United | 0-1 | 0.78 | 1.12 | -0.78 |
| 22 Aug | H | Crawley Town | 1-2 | 0.53 | 2.16 | +0.47 |
| 15 Aug | A | Newport County | 0-3 | 0.16 | 1.15 | -0.16 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
22.0%
85/24 (4.54)
Draw
21.8%
43/12 (4.58)
Away
56.2%
18/23 (1.78)
The model: Rochdale v York City
The model
What the expected goals say
Rochdale expected goals 1.15, York City 1.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rochdale goals down, York City goals across.
| Rochdale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.7 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 22.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- York City win, per cent
- 56.2%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Northampton Town v Rochdale
Expected home goals 1.25 · expected away goals 0.84
Home
45.9%
20/17 (2.18)
Draw
29.1%
17/7 (3.43)
Away
24.9%
3/1 (4.01)
The model: Northampton Town v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Northampton Town expected goals 1.25, Rochdale 0.84: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Northampton Town goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Northampton Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 10.4 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 45.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 29.1%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 24.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 12.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 34.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
Draw
21.0%
83/22 (4.77)
Away
59.1%
9/13 (1.69)
The model: Rochdale v Barnet
The model
What the expected goals say
Rochdale expected goals 1.11, Barnet 2.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rochdale goals down, Barnet goals across.
| Rochdale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 20.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.0%
- Barnet win, per cent
- 59.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Cheltenham Town v Rochdale
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
41.6%
31/22 (2.41)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.01)
The model: Cheltenham Town v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.49, Rochdale 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 41.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
59.9%
2/3 (1.67)
Draw
24.1%
63/20 (4.15)
Away
16.0%
21/4 (6.25)
The model: Exeter City v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.66, Rochdale 0.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 1 | 15.3 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 59.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.1%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 16.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
