League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Swindon Town
13th on points, with 19. 22nd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 16.83 xG for, 23.27 against, goal difference -2.
- Season xGD
- -6.44
- GF minus xG
- -1.83
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.62
- xG per match
- 1.20
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.20
- xG against / match
- 1.66
- xGD / match
- -0.46
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.30
- xG against / match
- 1.76
- xGD / match
- -0.46
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.26
- xG against / match
- 1.80
- xGD / match
- -0.55
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.99 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.04. Away attack 0.80 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.17.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.1% (14/9), draw 22.8% (61/18), away 38.1% (13/8). Expected home goals 1.69, expected away goals 1.67. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Home side
Swindon Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.29
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 1.04
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Swindon Town’s side.
Away side
Grimsby Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.84
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.78
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.56
- Venue attack rating
- 1.32
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Grimsby Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
York City5–2xG 2.58 for · 0.41 against
24 Oct · Away
Gillingham4–1xG 2.83 for · 1.15 against
20 Oct · Away
Rochdale2–2xG 2.89 for · 1.77 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.71 for · 2.00 against
10 Oct · Away
Port Vale0–1xG 0.45 for · 3.18 against
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.69, Grimsby Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 39.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Conceding fewer than xG. Goals conceded are 6.3 below xG against across 14 matches. Keeper form and finishing against barely show up in the shot model. Chapter 20 is the longer argument.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Swindon Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 0.89 for · 0.33 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.50 for · 1.51 against
20 Oct · Away
Barnet3–1xG 1.36 for · 3.77 against
17 Oct · Home
Walsall1–1xG 2.06 for · 1.96 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.64 for · 1.61 against
3 Oct · Away
Rochdale0–1xG 1.08 for · 1.64 against
26 Sept · Home
xG 1.83 for · 1.50 against
19 Sept · Away
Salford City0–1xG 1.12 for · 1.25 against
12 Sept · Away
York City0–4xG 0.49 for · 2.59 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 2.06 for · 1.49 against
1 Sept · Home
Port Vale3–1xG 2.49 for · 1.03 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.07 for · 2.73 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 1.04 for · 1.10 against
15 Aug · Away
xG 0.20 for · 0.76 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Rotherham United | 2-1 | 0.89 | 0.33 | +1.11 |
| 24 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 0-0 | 1.50 | 1.51 | -1.50 |
| 20 Oct | A | Barnet | 3-1 | 1.36 | 3.77 | +1.64 |
| 17 Oct | H | Walsall | 1-1 | 2.06 | 1.96 | -1.06 |
| 10 Oct | H | Crewe Alexandra | 0-1 | 0.64 | 1.61 | -0.64 |
| 3 Oct | A | Rochdale | 0-1 | 1.08 | 1.64 | -1.08 |
| 26 Sept | H | Accrington Stanley | 1-1 | 1.83 | 1.50 | -0.83 |
| 19 Sept | A | Salford City | 0-1 | 1.12 | 1.25 | -1.12 |
| 12 Sept | A | York City | 0-4 | 0.49 | 2.59 | -0.49 |
| 5 Sept | H | Colchester United | 3-1 | 2.06 | 1.49 | +0.94 |
| 1 Sept | H | Port Vale | 3-1 | 2.49 | 1.03 | +0.51 |
| 29 Aug | A | Oldham Athletic | 0-3 | 0.07 | 2.73 | -0.07 |
| 22 Aug | H | Cheltenham Town | 2-1 | 1.04 | 1.10 | +0.96 |
| 15 Aug | A | Northampton Town | 0-0 | 0.20 | 0.76 | -0.20 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 1.69 · expected away goals 1.67
Home
39.1%
14/9 (2.56)
Draw
22.8%
61/18 (4.39)
Away
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
The model: Swindon Town v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.69, Grimsby Town 1.67: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 39.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.8%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 65.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Newport County v Swindon Town
Expected home goals 1.77 · expected away goals 0.91
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
23.3%
33/10 (4.30)
Away
19.1%
89/21 (5.24)
The model: Newport County v Swindon Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Newport County expected goals 1.77, Swindon Town 0.91: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Newport County goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Newport County goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Newport County win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.3%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 19.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Swindon Town v Chesterfield
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.54
Home
33.8%
47/24 (2.96)
Draw
24.7%
55/18 (4.05)
Away
41.6%
31/22 (2.41)
The model: Swindon Town v Chesterfield
The model
What the expected goals say
Swindon Town expected goals 1.36, Chesterfield 1.54: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Swindon Town goals down, Chesterfield goals across.
| Swindon Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 33.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Chesterfield win, per cent
- 41.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
51.8%
13/14 (1.93)
Draw
24.0%
60/19 (4.16)
Away
24.1%
22/7 (4.14)
The model: Gillingham v Swindon Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Gillingham expected goals 1.70, Swindon Town 1.08: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Gillingham goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Gillingham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 51.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 24.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Fleetwood Town v Swindon Town
Expected home goals 1.85 · expected away goals 0.87
Home
60.6%
13/20 (1.65)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.49)
Away
17.1%
92/19 (5.84)
The model: Fleetwood Town v Swindon Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.85, Swindon Town 0.87: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Swindon Town goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.6 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 60.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Swindon Town win, per cent
- 17.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
