League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Salford City
1st on points, with 31. 10th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 18.08 xG for, 16.19 against, goal difference +10.
- Season xGD
- +1.89
- GF minus xG
- +6.92
- Last 10 xGD
- +2.18
- xG per match
- 1.29
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.29
- xG against / match
- 1.16
- xGD / match
- +0.14
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.34
- xG against / match
- 1.12
- xGD / match
- +0.22
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.45
- xG against / match
- 0.98
- xGD / match
- +0.47
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.87 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.84. Away attack 1.05 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.92.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Salford City v Northampton Town, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 47.3% (10/9), draw 28.3% (43/17), away 24.3% (59/19). Expected home goals 1.32, expected away goals 0.86. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Salford City v Northampton Town
Home side
Salford City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.27
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.92
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.47
- Venue attack rating
- 0.87
- Venue defence rating
- 0.84
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Salford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Exeter City2–1xG 0.73 for · 0.74 against
26 Oct · Away
Walsall4–2xG 2.39 for · 2.13 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Crawley Town2–1xG 1.75 for · 0.61 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.11 for · 0.25 against
Away side
Northampton Town
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.46
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.83
- Venue defence rating
- 0.95
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Northampton Town’s side.
3 Nov · Home
xG 1.03 for · 0.94 against
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.67 for · 1.50 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 0.78 for · 1.05 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.91 for · 0.66 against
17 Oct · Away
Grimsby Town2–0xG 2.00 for · 2.71 against
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.32, Northampton Town 0.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 47.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.3%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 37.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals ahead of xG. Goals scored are 6.9 ahead of xG across 14 matches. A gap this size is mostly noise until the sample is long. It is a regression flag, not a verdict on the results.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Salford City’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Exeter City2–1xG 0.73 for · 0.74 against
26 Oct · Away
Walsall4–2xG 2.39 for · 2.13 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.68 for · 1.51 against
17 Oct · Home
Crawley Town2–1xG 1.75 for · 0.61 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.11 for · 0.25 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 2.04 for · 0.62 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 1.67 for · 1.09 against
19 Sept · Home
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.25 for · 1.12 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 1.45 for · 2.46 against
5 Sept · Home
Port Vale1–0xG 0.32 for · 0.68 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 2.28 for · 0.42 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.98 for · 0.67 against
22 Aug · Home
Chesterfield0–1xG 0.51 for · 2.27 against
15 Aug · Away
Barnet1–3xG 0.92 for · 1.62 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Exeter City | 2-1 | 0.73 | 0.74 | +1.27 |
| 26 Oct | A | Walsall | 4-2 | 2.39 | 2.13 | +1.61 |
| 20 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 2-1 | 0.68 | 1.51 | +1.32 |
| 17 Oct | H | Crawley Town | 2-1 | 1.75 | 0.61 | +0.25 |
| 10 Oct | A | Cheltenham Town | 2-0 | 1.11 | 0.25 | +0.89 |
| 3 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 1-0 | 2.04 | 0.62 | -1.04 |
| 26 Sept | A | Oldham Athletic | 4-1 | 1.67 | 1.09 | +2.33 |
| 19 Sept | H | Swindon Town | 1-0 | 1.25 | 1.12 | -0.25 |
| 12 Sept | A | Rotherham United | 3-3 | 1.45 | 2.46 | +1.55 |
| 5 Sept | H | Port Vale | 1-0 | 0.32 | 0.68 | +0.68 |
| 1 Sept | H | Newport County | 2-1 | 2.28 | 0.42 | -0.28 |
| 29 Aug | A | Shrewsbury Town | 0-1 | 0.98 | 0.67 | -0.98 |
| 22 Aug | H | Chesterfield | 0-1 | 0.51 | 2.27 | -0.51 |
| 15 Aug | A | Barnet | 1-3 | 0.92 | 1.62 | +0.08 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Salford City v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.32 · expected away goals 0.86
Home
47.3%
10/9 (2.11)
Draw
28.3%
43/17 (3.53)
Away
24.3%
59/19 (4.11)
The model: Salford City v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.32, Northampton Town 0.86: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | ||
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 47.3%
- Draw, per cent
- 28.3%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 24.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 11.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 37.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Accrington Stanley v Salford City
Expected home goals 1.68 · expected away goals 1.09
Home
51.1%
22/23 (1.96)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
24.7%
55/18 (4.06)
The model: Accrington Stanley v Salford City
The model
What the expected goals say
Accrington Stanley expected goals 1.68, Salford City 1.09: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Accrington Stanley goals down, Salford City goals across.
| Accrington Stanley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.5 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 51.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- Salford City win, per cent
- 24.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Salford City v Gillingham
Expected home goals 1.37 · expected away goals 1.02
Home
45.0%
11/9 (2.22)
Draw
27.2%
59/22 (3.68)
Away
27.8%
57/22 (3.59)
The model: Salford City v Gillingham
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.37, Gillingham 1.02: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Gillingham goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.8 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 45.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.2%
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 27.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 9.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 42.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Tranmere Rovers v Salford City
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.42
Home
35.9%
25/14 (2.79)
Draw
25.4%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
38.7%
30/19 (2.58)
The model: Tranmere Rovers v Salford City
The model
What the expected goals say
Tranmere Rovers expected goals 1.36, Salford City 1.42: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tranmere Rovers goals down, Salford City goals across.
| Tranmere Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 35.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Salford City win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Salford City v Colchester United
Expected home goals 1.61 · expected away goals 0.92
Home
53.4%
7/8 (1.87)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.00)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
The model: Salford City v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Salford City expected goals 1.61, Colchester United 0.92: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Salford City goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Salford City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Salford City win, per cent
- 53.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 46.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
