League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Tranmere Rovers
11th on points, with 19. 21st on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 16.07 xG for, 20.97 against, goal difference +2.
- Season xGD
- -4.90
- GF minus xG
- +2.93
- Last 10 xGD
- -2.30
- xG per match
- 1.15
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.15
- xG against / match
- 1.50
- xGD / match
- -0.35
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.25
- xG against / match
- 1.48
- xGD / match
- -0.23
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.03
- xG against / match
- 1.64
- xGD / match
- -0.61
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.93 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.11. Away attack 0.82 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.99.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers, Sat 14 Nov, 17:30. The model’s fair prices are home 52.8% (17/19), draw 25.5% (67/23), away 21.6% (76/21). Expected home goals 1.55, expected away goals 0.89. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Home side
Fleetwood Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.56
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.01
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.99
- Venue defence rating
- 0.89
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Fleetwood Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 3.19 for · 0.19 against
24 Oct · Away
Exeter City1–2xG 0.99 for · 1.11 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.08 for · 3.03 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.86 for · 1.28 against
10 Oct · Home
Walsall1–1xG 1.57 for · 0.89 against
Away side
Tranmere Rovers
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.88
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.56
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.61
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 0.99
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Tranmere Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.00 for · 0.58 against
24 Oct · Away
Crawley Town1–1xG 1.19 for · 0.82 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.91 against
17 Oct · Home
Barnet1–2xG 1.12 for · 2.44 against
10 Oct · Home
Rochdale1–1xG 1.68 for · 0.97 against
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.55, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Tranmere Rovers’s side.
31 Oct · Home
xG 1.00 for · 0.58 against
24 Oct · Away
Crawley Town1–1xG 1.19 for · 0.82 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 0.66 for · 1.91 against
17 Oct · Home
Barnet1–2xG 1.12 for · 2.44 against
10 Oct · Home
Rochdale1–1xG 1.68 for · 0.97 against
3 Oct · Away
Chesterfield2–4xG 0.52 for · 3.13 against
26 Sept · Home
Walsall1–1xG 2.26 for · 0.81 against
19 Sept · Away
Exeter City0–0xG 0.88 for · 0.73 against
12 Sept · Away
Gillingham0–2xG 1.25 for · 1.49 against
5 Sept · Home
xG 1.96 for · 1.94 against
1 Sept · Home
xG 0.74 for · 2.02 against
29 Aug · Away
xG 0.94 for · 1.06 against
22 Aug · Away
Port Vale1–1xG 0.71 for · 1.79 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 1.16 for · 1.28 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Cheltenham Town | 3-1 | 1.00 | 0.58 | +2.00 |
| 24 Oct | A | Crawley Town | 1-1 | 1.19 | 0.82 | -0.19 |
| 20 Oct | A | Northampton Town | 1-0 | 0.66 | 1.91 | +0.34 |
| 17 Oct | H | Barnet | 1-2 | 1.12 | 2.44 | -0.12 |
| 10 Oct | H | Rochdale | 1-1 | 1.68 | 0.97 | -0.68 |
| 3 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 2-4 | 0.52 | 3.13 | +1.48 |
| 26 Sept | H | Walsall | 1-1 | 2.26 | 0.81 | -1.26 |
| 19 Sept | A | Exeter City | 0-0 | 0.88 | 0.73 | -0.88 |
| 12 Sept | A | Gillingham | 0-2 | 1.25 | 1.49 | -1.25 |
| 5 Sept | H | Oldham Athletic | 2-0 | 1.96 | 1.94 | +0.04 |
| 1 Sept | H | Rotherham United | 2-2 | 0.74 | 2.02 | +1.26 |
| 29 Aug | A | Newport County | 2-2 | 0.94 | 1.06 | +1.06 |
| 22 Aug | A | Port Vale | 1-1 | 0.71 | 1.79 | +0.29 |
| 15 Aug | H | Shrewsbury Town | 2-0 | 1.16 | 1.28 | +0.84 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 17:30 · Away
Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
Expected home goals 1.55 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
52.8%
17/19 (1.89)
Draw
25.5%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
21.6%
76/21 (4.62)
The model: Fleetwood Town v Tranmere Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Fleetwood Town expected goals 1.55, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Fleetwood Town goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Fleetwood Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Fleetwood Town win, per cent
- 52.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Tranmere Rovers v Colchester United
Expected home goals 1.71 · expected away goals 1.21
Home
49.1%
25/24 (2.04)
Draw
23.8%
16/5 (4.20)
Away
27.1%
35/13 (3.69)
The model: Tranmere Rovers v Colchester United
The model
What the expected goals say
Tranmere Rovers expected goals 1.71, Colchester United 1.21: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tranmere Rovers goals down, Colchester United goals across.
| Tranmere Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 49.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.8%
- Colchester United win, per cent
- 27.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
Expected home goals 1.91 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
61.1%
7/11 (1.64)
Draw
21.8%
79/22 (4.59)
Away
17.1%
97/20 (5.85)
The model: Bristol Rovers v Tranmere Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Bristol Rovers expected goals 1.91, Tranmere Rovers 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Bristol Rovers goals down, Tranmere Rovers goals across.
| Bristol Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.4 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 61.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.8%
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 17.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 5 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Tranmere Rovers v Salford City
Expected home goals 1.36 · expected away goals 1.42
Home
35.9%
25/14 (2.79)
Draw
25.4%
53/18 (3.94)
Away
38.7%
30/19 (2.58)
The model: Tranmere Rovers v Salford City
The model
What the expected goals say
Tranmere Rovers expected goals 1.36, Salford City 1.42: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tranmere Rovers goals down, Salford City goals across.
| Tranmere Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 35.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.4%
- Salford City win, per cent
- 38.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.6%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 12:30 · Home
Tranmere Rovers v York City
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 1.53
Home
36.9%
41/24 (2.71)
Draw
24.2%
72/23 (4.13)
Away
38.9%
11/7 (2.57)
The model: Tranmere Rovers v York City
The model
What the expected goals say
Tranmere Rovers expected goals 1.49, York City 1.53: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Tranmere Rovers goals down, York City goals across.
| Tranmere Rovers goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Tranmere Rovers win, per cent
- 36.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.2%
- York City win, per cent
- 38.9%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 58.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
