League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Oldham Athletic
18th on points, with 15. 9th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 21.29 xG for, 19.00 against, goal difference -4.
- Season xGD
- +2.29
- GF minus xG
- -6.29
- Last 10 xGD
- +0.23
- xG per match
- 1.52
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.52
- xG against / match
- 1.36
- xGD / match
- +0.16
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.54
- xG against / match
- 1.52
- xGD / match
- +0.02
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.47
- xG against / match
- 1.49
- xGD / match
- -0.02
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.95 from 7 home matches. Home defence 0.98. Away attack 1.18 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.98.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 38.1% (13/8), draw 25.5% (38/13), away 36.4% (40/23). Expected home goals 1.40, expected away goals 1.36. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Home side
Shrewsbury Town
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.34
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.11
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.22
- Venue attack rating
- 0.90
- Venue defence rating
- 0.94
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Shrewsbury Town’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Gillingham1–2xG 1.83 for · 2.03 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.79 for · 1.62 against
20 Oct · Away
Crawley Town3–2xG 2.35 for · 1.64 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 1.65 for · 0.54 against
10 Oct · Home
Exeter City0–1xG 1.17 for · 1.22 against
Away side
Oldham Athletic
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.57
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.02
- Venue attack rating
- 1.18
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Oldham Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.94 for · 1.03 against
31 Oct · Home
Crawley Town0–1xG 1.46 for · 2.26 against
24 Oct · Away
Barnet1–1xG 2.39 for · 1.63 against
20 Oct · Away
Walsall0–3xG 1.52 for · 2.53 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.30 for · 0.88 against
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.40, Oldham Athletic 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Stop Press
Regression flags- Goals behind xG. Goals scored are 6.3 behind xG across 14 matches. The shots have been worth more than the scoreline. That is a description of the gap, not a claim the side is due anything.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Oldham Athletic’s side.
3 Nov · Away
xG 0.94 for · 1.03 against
31 Oct · Home
Crawley Town0–1xG 1.46 for · 2.26 against
24 Oct · Away
Barnet1–1xG 2.39 for · 1.63 against
20 Oct · Away
Walsall0–3xG 1.52 for · 2.53 against
17 Oct · Home
xG 2.30 for · 0.88 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 0.23 for · 0.61 against
26 Sept · Home
Salford City1–4xG 1.09 for · 1.67 against
19 Sept · Away
Rochdale0–2xG 2.49 for · 0.40 against
12 Sept · Home
Chesterfield1–2xG 1.08 for · 2.24 against
5 Sept · Away
xG 1.94 for · 1.96 against
1 Sept · Away
xG 1.42 for · 0.84 against
29 Aug · Home
Swindon Town3–0xG 2.73 for · 0.07 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 0.27 for · 2.37 against
15 Aug · Home
Port Vale2–0xG 1.43 for · 0.51 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov | A | Northampton Town | 1-0 | 0.94 | 1.03 | +0.06 |
| 31 Oct | H | Crawley Town | 0-1 | 1.46 | 2.26 | -1.46 |
| 24 Oct | A | Barnet | 1-1 | 2.39 | 1.63 | -1.39 |
| 20 Oct | A | Walsall | 0-3 | 1.52 | 2.53 | -1.52 |
| 17 Oct | H | Cheltenham Town | 4-1 | 2.30 | 0.88 | +1.70 |
| 10 Oct | H | Accrington Stanley | 0-0 | 0.23 | 0.61 | -0.23 |
| 26 Sept | H | Salford City | 1-4 | 1.09 | 1.67 | -0.09 |
| 19 Sept | A | Rochdale | 0-2 | 2.49 | 0.40 | -2.49 |
| 12 Sept | H | Chesterfield | 1-2 | 1.08 | 2.24 | -0.08 |
| 5 Sept | A | Tranmere Rovers | 0-2 | 1.94 | 1.96 | -1.94 |
| 1 Sept | A | Fleetwood Town | 1-1 | 1.42 | 0.84 | -0.42 |
| 29 Aug | H | Swindon Town | 3-0 | 2.73 | 0.07 | +0.27 |
| 22 Aug | A | Colchester United | 1-2 | 0.27 | 2.37 | +0.73 |
| 15 Aug | H | Port Vale | 2-0 | 1.43 | 0.51 | +0.57 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
38.1%
13/8 (2.63)
Draw
25.5%
38/13 (3.92)
Away
36.4%
40/23 (2.74)
The model: Shrewsbury Town v Oldham Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.40, Oldham Athletic 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.1 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 38.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 36.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 52.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Oldham Athletic v Exeter City
Expected home goals 1.40 · expected away goals 0.89
Home
48.8%
21/20 (2.05)
Draw
27.3%
8/3 (3.67)
Away
24.0%
73/23 (4.17)
The model: Oldham Athletic v Exeter City
The model
What the expected goals say
Oldham Athletic expected goals 1.40, Exeter City 0.89: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oldham Athletic goals down, Exeter City goals across.
| Oldham Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | ||
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 48.8%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.3%
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 24.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 10.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 40.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Rotherham United v Oldham Athletic
Expected home goals 1.60 · expected away goals 1.72
Home
36.1%
23/13 (2.77)
Draw
22.9%
37/11 (4.36)
Away
41.0%
13/9 (2.44)
The model: Rotherham United v Oldham Athletic
The model
What the expected goals say
Rotherham United expected goals 1.60, Oldham Athletic 1.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rotherham United goals down, Oldham Athletic goals across.
| Rotherham United goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.0 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 36.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.9%
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 41.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.6%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 64.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Oldham Athletic v Bristol Rovers
Expected home goals 1.67 · expected away goals 0.96
Home
53.9%
6/7 (1.85)
Draw
24.3%
28/9 (4.11)
Away
21.7%
18/5 (4.60)
The model: Oldham Athletic v Bristol Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Oldham Athletic expected goals 1.67, Bristol Rovers 0.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oldham Athletic goals down, Bristol Rovers goals across.
| Oldham Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 6.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | |
| 1 | 12.0 | 11.6 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 53.9%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.3%
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 21.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 48.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Oldham Athletic v Gillingham
Expected home goals 1.50 · expected away goals 1.18
Home
44.7%
26/21 (2.24)
Draw
25.5%
67/23 (3.91)
Away
29.8%
33/14 (3.36)
The model: Oldham Athletic v Gillingham
The model
What the expected goals say
Oldham Athletic expected goals 1.50, Gillingham 1.18: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Oldham Athletic goals down, Gillingham goals across.
| Oldham Athletic goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Oldham Athletic win, per cent
- 44.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.5%
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 29.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 50.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
