League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Cheltenham Town
5th on points, with 21. 23rd on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 17.11 xG for, 25.10 against, goal difference -2.
- Season xGD
- -7.99
- GF minus xG
- +5.89
- Last 10 xGD
- -4.85
- xG per match
- 1.22
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.22
- xG against / match
- 1.79
- xGD / match
- -0.57
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.23
- xG against / match
- 1.71
- xGD / match
- -0.49
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.11
- xG against / match
- 1.77
- xGD / match
- -0.66
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.88 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.38. Away attack 0.97 from 7 away matches. Away defence 1.01.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town, Sat 14 Nov, 12:30. The model’s fair prices are home 53.1% (15/17), draw 25.3% (62/21), away 21.6% (40/11). Expected home goals 1.57, expected away goals 0.90. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Home side
Exeter City
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.53
- Venue xG against / match
- 0.77
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.30
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 0.76
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Exeter City’s side.
31 Oct · Away
Salford City1–2xG 0.74 for · 0.73 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.11 for · 0.99 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 1.83 for · 0.93 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.36 for · 1.33 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 1.22 for · 1.17 against
Away side
Cheltenham Town
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.16
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.63
- Last 6 xGD / match
- -0.66
- Venue attack rating
- 0.97
- Venue defence rating
- 1.01
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Cheltenham Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.58 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.52 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 3.03 for · 2.08 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.30 against
10 Oct · Home
Salford City0–2xG 0.25 for · 1.11 against
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.57, Cheltenham Town 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 53.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Cheltenham Town’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.58 for · 1.00 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.56 for · 1.52 against
20 Oct · Home
xG 3.03 for · 2.08 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 0.88 for · 2.30 against
10 Oct · Home
Salford City0–2xG 0.25 for · 1.11 against
3 Oct · Away
xG 0.34 for · 2.59 against
26 Sept · Home
Chesterfield2–1xG 0.91 for · 2.62 against
19 Sept · Away
xG 1.53 for · 0.87 against
12 Sept · Away
Crawley Town3–1xG 1.90 for · 1.44 against
5 Sept · Home
Grimsby Town2–2xG 1.29 for · 1.59 against
1 Sept · Home
York City3–2xG 1.36 for · 2.59 against
29 Aug · Away
Barnet2–2xG 1.78 for · 2.15 against
22 Aug · Away
Swindon Town1–2xG 1.10 for · 1.04 against
15 Aug · Home
xG 0.60 for · 2.20 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Tranmere Rovers | 1-3 | 0.58 | 1.00 | +0.42 |
| 24 Oct | H | Newport County | 1-0 | 1.56 | 1.52 | -0.56 |
| 20 Oct | H | Fleetwood Town | 4-2 | 3.03 | 2.08 | +0.97 |
| 17 Oct | A | Oldham Athletic | 1-4 | 0.88 | 2.30 | +0.12 |
| 10 Oct | H | Salford City | 0-2 | 0.25 | 1.11 | -0.25 |
| 3 Oct | A | Accrington Stanley | 0-2 | 0.34 | 2.59 | -0.34 |
| 26 Sept | H | Chesterfield | 2-1 | 0.91 | 2.62 | +1.09 |
| 19 Sept | A | Colchester United | 1-1 | 1.53 | 0.87 | -0.53 |
| 12 Sept | A | Crawley Town | 3-1 | 1.90 | 1.44 | +1.10 |
| 5 Sept | H | Grimsby Town | 2-2 | 1.29 | 1.59 | +0.71 |
| 1 Sept | H | York City | 3-2 | 1.36 | 2.59 | +1.64 |
| 29 Aug | A | Barnet | 2-2 | 1.78 | 2.15 | +0.22 |
| 22 Aug | A | Swindon Town | 1-2 | 1.10 | 1.04 | -0.10 |
| 15 Aug | H | Rotherham United | 2-1 | 0.60 | 2.20 | +1.40 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
Expected home goals 1.57 · expected away goals 0.90
Home
53.1%
15/17 (1.88)
Draw
25.3%
62/21 (3.95)
Away
21.6%
40/11 (4.64)
The model: Exeter City v Cheltenham Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Exeter City expected goals 1.57, Cheltenham Town 0.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Exeter City goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Exeter City goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Exeter City win, per cent
- 53.1%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.3%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 21.6%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 1.36
Home
41.5%
24/17 (2.41)
Draw
24.7%
58/19 (4.05)
Away
33.8%
45/23 (2.96)
The model: Cheltenham Town v Bristol Rovers
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.54, Bristol Rovers 1.36: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Bristol Rovers goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 41.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.7%
- Bristol Rovers win, per cent
- 33.8%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 55.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Away
Shrewsbury Town v Cheltenham Town
Expected home goals 1.45 · expected away goals 1.12
Home
44.7%
21/17 (2.24)
Draw
26.2%
48/17 (3.82)
Away
29.1%
56/23 (3.43)
The model: Shrewsbury Town v Cheltenham Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Shrewsbury Town expected goals 1.45, Cheltenham Town 1.12: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Shrewsbury Town goals down, Cheltenham Town goals across.
| Shrewsbury Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Shrewsbury Town win, per cent
- 44.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 26.2%
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 29.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 7.7%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 47.2%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Home
Cheltenham Town v Rochdale
Expected home goals 1.49 · expected away goals 1.31
Home
41.6%
31/22 (2.41)
Draw
25.2%
71/24 (3.97)
Away
33.3%
2/1 (3.01)
The model: Cheltenham Town v Rochdale
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.49, Rochdale 1.31: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Rochdale goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 41.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.2%
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 33.3%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.1%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.0%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Cheltenham Town v Crewe Alexandra
Expected home goals 1.18 · expected away goals 1.57
Home
28.6%
5/2 (3.50)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.00)
Away
46.4%
15/13 (2.15)
The model: Cheltenham Town v Crewe Alexandra
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.18, Crewe Alexandra 1.57: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Crewe Alexandra goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 28.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 46.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
