League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Crewe Alexandra
4th on points, with 22. 15th on season xG difference. 14 league matches, 15.65 xG for, 17.81 against, goal difference +0.
- Season xGD
- -2.16
- GF minus xG
- +1.35
- Last 10 xGD
- -2.93
- xG per match
- 1.12
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 14 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.12
- xG against / match
- 1.27
- xGD / match
- -0.15
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.03
- xG against / match
- 1.32
- xGD / match
- -0.29
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.20
- xG against / match
- 1.09
- xGD / match
- +0.11
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 0.82 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.07. Away attack 0.93 from 7 away matches. Away defence 0.84.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County, Sat 14 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 39.7% (35/23), draw 27.4% (61/23), away 33.0% (49/24). Expected home goals 1.29, expected away goals 1.15. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Home side
Crewe Alexandra
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 1.15
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.35
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.11
- Venue attack rating
- 0.82
- Venue defence rating
- 1.07
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Crewe Alexandra’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Barnet1–1xG 0.72 for · 0.54 against
24 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–5xG 0.67 for · 1.98 against
20 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–2xG 0.93 for · 1.83 against
17 Oct · Home
Rochdale3–2xG 1.69 for · 0.75 against
10 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.61 for · 0.64 against
Away side
Newport County
- Season away matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.99
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.54
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.36
- Venue attack rating
- 0.88
- Venue defence rating
- 0.98
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Newport County’s side.
30 Oct · Home
Chesterfield4–1xG 1.30 for · 1.30 against
24 Oct · Away
xG 1.52 for · 1.56 against
20 Oct · Away
xG 2.23 for · 1.59 against
17 Oct · Home
York City1–1xG 1.18 for · 1.57 against
10 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.61 against
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.29, Newport County 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 39.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.4%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 33.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Crewe Alexandra’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Barnet1–1xG 0.72 for · 0.54 against
24 Oct · Away
Chesterfield1–5xG 0.67 for · 1.98 against
20 Oct · Away
Exeter City0–2xG 0.93 for · 1.83 against
17 Oct · Home
Rochdale3–2xG 1.69 for · 0.75 against
10 Oct · Away
Swindon Town1–0xG 1.61 for · 0.64 against
3 Oct · Home
xG 1.60 for · 0.79 against
26 Sept · Away
xG 0.35 for · 0.64 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 0.95 for · 2.25 against
12 Sept · Away
xG 0.64 for · 1.30 against
5 Sept · Home
York City1–1xG 1.14 for · 2.51 against
1 Sept · Home
Walsall2–2xG 1.49 for · 1.82 against
29 Aug · Away
Port Vale0–0xG 1.18 for · 1.06 against
22 Aug · Home
xG 0.48 for · 0.77 against
15 Aug · Away
Crawley Town1–0xG 2.20 for · 0.93 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | H | Barnet | 1-1 | 0.72 | 0.54 | +0.28 |
| 24 Oct | A | Chesterfield | 1-5 | 0.67 | 1.98 | +0.33 |
| 20 Oct | A | Exeter City | 0-2 | 0.93 | 1.83 | -0.93 |
| 17 Oct | H | Rochdale | 3-2 | 1.69 | 0.75 | +1.31 |
| 10 Oct | A | Swindon Town | 1-0 | 1.61 | 0.64 | -0.61 |
| 3 Oct | H | Bristol Rovers | 3-1 | 1.60 | 0.79 | +1.40 |
| 26 Sept | A | Rotherham United | 1-1 | 0.35 | 0.64 | +0.65 |
| 19 Sept | H | Shrewsbury Town | 1-1 | 0.95 | 2.25 | +0.05 |
| 12 Sept | A | Colchester United | 1-1 | 0.64 | 1.30 | +0.36 |
| 5 Sept | H | York City | 1-1 | 1.14 | 2.51 | -0.14 |
| 1 Sept | H | Walsall | 2-2 | 1.49 | 1.82 | +0.51 |
| 29 Aug | A | Port Vale | 0-0 | 1.18 | 1.06 | -1.18 |
| 22 Aug | H | Northampton Town | 1-0 | 0.48 | 0.77 | +0.52 |
| 15 Aug | A | Crawley Town | 1-0 | 2.20 | 0.93 | -1.20 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
Expected home goals 1.29 · expected away goals 1.15
Home
39.7%
35/23 (2.52)
Draw
27.4%
61/23 (3.66)
Away
33.0%
49/24 (3.03)
The model: Crewe Alexandra v Newport County
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.29, Newport County 1.15: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Newport County goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.1 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 39.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.4%
- Newport County win, per cent
- 33.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.8%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 43.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 21 Nov, 12:30 · Away
Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
Expected home goals 1.21 · expected away goals 1.26
Home
35.4%
42/23 (2.83)
Draw
27.2%
59/22 (3.68)
Away
37.4%
5/3 (2.67)
The model: Gillingham v Crewe Alexandra
The model
What the expected goals say
Gillingham expected goals 1.21, Crewe Alexandra 1.26: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Gillingham goals down, Crewe Alexandra goals across.
| Gillingham goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.6 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Gillingham win, per cent
- 35.4%
- Draw, per cent
- 27.2%
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 37.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.5%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 44.9%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 28 Nov, 15:00 · Home
Crewe Alexandra v Grimsby Town
Expected home goals 1.41 · expected away goals 1.72
Home
31.6%
13/6 (3.16)
Draw
23.4%
49/15 (4.27)
Away
45.0%
11/9 (2.22)
The model: Crewe Alexandra v Grimsby Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Crewe Alexandra expected goals 1.41, Grimsby Town 1.72: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crewe Alexandra goals down, Grimsby Town goals across.
| Crewe Alexandra goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 31.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 23.4%
- Grimsby Town win, per cent
- 45.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 60.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Tue 1 Dec, 19:45 · Away
Accrington Stanley v Crewe Alexandra
Expected home goals 1.54 · expected away goals 0.96
Home
50.6%
23/24 (1.97)
Draw
25.7%
55/19 (3.90)
Away
23.7%
29/9 (4.22)
The model: Accrington Stanley v Crewe Alexandra
The model
What the expected goals say
Accrington Stanley expected goals 1.54, Crewe Alexandra 0.96: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Accrington Stanley goals down, Crewe Alexandra goals across.
| Accrington Stanley goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.1 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
- Accrington Stanley win, per cent
- 50.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.7%
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 23.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 8.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 45.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Away
Cheltenham Town v Crewe Alexandra
Expected home goals 1.18 · expected away goals 1.57
Home
28.6%
5/2 (3.50)
Draw
25.0%
3/1 (4.00)
Away
46.4%
15/13 (2.15)
The model: Cheltenham Town v Crewe Alexandra
The model
What the expected goals say
Cheltenham Town expected goals 1.18, Crewe Alexandra 1.57: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Cheltenham Town goals down, Crewe Alexandra goals across.
| Cheltenham Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.9 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Cheltenham Town win, per cent
- 28.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 25.0%
- Crewe Alexandra win, per cent
- 46.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.4%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 51.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
