League Two · 2026/2027 · provider tag opta
Barnet
2nd on points, with 26. 3rd on season xG difference. 13 league matches, 25.54 xG for, 18.30 against, goal difference +10.
- Season xGD
- +7.24
- GF minus xG
- +2.46
- Last 10 xGD
- +6.88
- xG per match
- 1.96
The recent picture
Per league match in each window. The last six overlap the last ten and are a small sample.
Season · 13 matches
- xG for / match
- 1.96
- xG against / match
- 1.41
- xGD / match
- +0.56
Last 10 · 10 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.07
- xG against / match
- 1.38
- xGD / match
- +0.69
Last 6 · 6 matches
- xG for / match
- 2.05
- xG against / match
- 1.35
- xGD / match
- +0.71
Chances and goals
Cumulative league totals. Solid lines are goals, dashed lines are xG. A line pulling away from its pair is a gap between goals and chances, not a verdict.
Ratings that feed the price
Attack is xG for divided by the league’s home or away average. Defence is xG against divided by what the opposition usually creates in that venue. Both are shrunk towards the league with four phantom matches, so two bright afternoons cannot set the price on their own. Home attack 1.27 from 7 home matches. Home defence 1.05. Away attack 1.18 from 6 away matches. Away defence 0.97.
Next up
Fair priceNext in the eight-day window: Barnet v Port Vale, Sat 21 Nov, 15:00. The model’s fair prices are home 57.7% (11/15), draw 22.7% (58/17), away 19.7% (49/12). Expected home goals 1.84, expected away goals 0.97. The margin is already off. That is a method. It is not a selection.
Compare teams & see the workings: Barnet v Port Vale
Home side
Barnet
- Season home matches
- 7
- Venue xG for / match
- 2.28
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.31
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.71
- Venue attack rating
- 1.27
- Venue defence rating
- 1.05
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Barnet’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 0.72 against
27 Oct · Home
York City3–1xG 1.84 for · 0.47 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.63 for · 2.39 against
20 Oct · Home
Swindon Town1–3xG 3.77 for · 1.36 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 2.44 for · 1.12 against
Away side
Port Vale
- Season away matches
- 6
- Venue xG for / match
- 0.73
- Venue xG against / match
- 1.34
- Last 6 xGD / match
- +0.55
- Venue attack rating
- 0.76
- Venue defence rating
- 0.90
Latest 5 league matches · newest first
Scores and xG from Port Vale’s side.
31 Oct · Home
Rochdale4–2xG 3.35 for · 1.05 against
24 Oct · Away
York City0–2xG 0.89 for · 1.06 against
20 Oct · Away
Gillingham1–1xG 0.75 for · 1.88 against
17 Oct · Home
Chesterfield1–0xG 0.27 for · 0.35 against
10 Oct · Home
Grimsby Town1–0xG 3.18 for · 0.45 against
Expected home goals 1.84 · expected away goals 0.97.
The price uses season home and away xG, with four matches of shrinkage towards this league’s averages. The recent matches above give context; they do not set the price. Expected home goals (λ) and expected away goals (μ) feed a plain Poisson model. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.84, Port Vale 0.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
No regression flag. The gap between goals and xG is inside the line used from matchweek 8.
League matches
Newest first. Scores and xG from Barnet’s side.
31 Oct · Away
xG 0.54 for · 0.72 against
27 Oct · Home
York City3–1xG 1.84 for · 0.47 against
24 Oct · Home
xG 1.63 for · 2.39 against
20 Oct · Home
Swindon Town1–3xG 3.77 for · 1.36 against
17 Oct · Away
xG 2.44 for · 1.12 against
10 Oct · Away
xG 2.10 for · 2.03 against
19 Sept · Home
xG 2.55 for · 1.58 against
12 Sept · Home
xG 2.41 for · 0.69 against
5 Sept · Away
Chesterfield3–3xG 2.40 for · 2.41 against
1 Sept · Away
Exeter City1–1xG 1.02 for · 1.05 against
29 Aug · Home
xG 2.15 for · 1.78 against
22 Aug · Away
xG 1.07 for · 1.78 against
15 Aug · Home
Salford City3–1xG 1.62 for · 0.92 against
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score | xG | xGA | GF-xG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Oct | A | Crewe Alexandra | 1-1 | 0.54 | 0.72 | +0.46 |
| 27 Oct | H | York City | 3-1 | 1.84 | 0.47 | +1.16 |
| 24 Oct | H | Oldham Athletic | 1-1 | 1.63 | 2.39 | -0.63 |
| 20 Oct | H | Swindon Town | 1-3 | 3.77 | 1.36 | -2.77 |
| 17 Oct | A | Tranmere Rovers | 2-1 | 2.44 | 1.12 | -0.44 |
| 10 Oct | A | Bristol Rovers | 3-1 | 2.10 | 2.03 | +0.90 |
| 19 Sept | H | Fleetwood Town | 3-1 | 2.55 | 1.58 | +0.45 |
| 12 Sept | H | Accrington Stanley | 2-1 | 2.41 | 0.69 | -0.41 |
| 5 Sept | A | Chesterfield | 3-3 | 2.40 | 2.41 | +0.60 |
| 1 Sept | A | Exeter City | 1-1 | 1.02 | 1.05 | -0.02 |
| 29 Aug | H | Cheltenham Town | 2-2 | 2.15 | 1.78 | -0.15 |
| 22 Aug | A | Shrewsbury Town | 3-1 | 1.07 | 1.78 | +1.93 |
| 15 Aug | H | Salford City | 3-1 | 1.62 | 0.92 | +1.38 |
Next five
Priced on today’s home and away xG. The morning after a match is played, both clubs’ ratings move and these five are priced again. A fixture later in the list uses the same ratings as the next one. That shows the run as the model sees it now, and which prices shift once the matches in front of them have been played. It is not a forecast of the table. The margin is already off. It is not a selection.
Home
57.7%
11/15 (1.73)
Draw
22.7%
58/17 (4.41)
Away
19.7%
49/12 (5.08)
The model: Barnet v Port Vale
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.84, Port Vale 0.97: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Port Vale goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.8 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 57.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.7%
- Port Vale win, per cent
- 19.7%
- 0-0, per cent
- 6.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 53.3%
- Most likely score
- 1-0
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
26.7%
63/23 (3.74)
Draw
22.3%
80/23 (4.48)
Away
51.0%
23/24 (1.96)
The model: Crawley Town v Barnet
The model
What the expected goals say
Crawley Town expected goals 1.33, Barnet 1.90: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Crawley Town goals down, Barnet goals across.
| Crawley Town goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Crawley Town win, per cent
- 26.7%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.3%
- Barnet win, per cent
- 51.0%
- 0-0, per cent
- 3.9%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 62.7%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
20.0%
4/1 (5.00)
Draw
21.0%
83/22 (4.77)
Away
59.1%
9/13 (1.69)
The model: Rochdale v Barnet
The model
What the expected goals say
Rochdale expected goals 1.11, Barnet 2.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Rochdale goals down, Barnet goals across.
| Rochdale goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
- Rochdale win, per cent
- 20.0%
- Draw, per cent
- 21.0%
- Barnet win, per cent
- 59.1%
- 0-0, per cent
- 4.2%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 61.4%
- Most likely score
- 1-2
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Home
47.6%
11/10 (2.10)
Draw
24.0%
19/6 (4.17)
Away
28.4%
53/21 (3.52)
The model: Barnet v Rotherham United
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.68, Rotherham United 1.25: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Rotherham United goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 47.6%
- Draw, per cent
- 24.0%
- Rotherham United win, per cent
- 28.4%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.3%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 56.1%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
Sat 12 Dec, 15:00 · Home
Barnet v Northampton Town
Expected home goals 1.93 · expected away goals 1.06
Home
57.5%
17/23 (1.74)
Draw
22.0%
71/20 (4.55)
Away
20.5%
89/23 (4.87)
The model: Barnet v Northampton Town
The model
What the expected goals say
Barnet expected goals 1.93, Northampton Town 1.06: the home side’s shrunk home attack against the away side’s shrunk away defence, and the reverse, each set against this league’s own-venue average. Four phantom matches at the league average are already in the ratings.
Chance of each scoreline, per cent. Barnet goals down, Northampton Town goals across.
| Barnet goals | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
- Barnet win, per cent
- 57.5%
- Draw, per cent
- 22.0%
- Northampton Town win, per cent
- 20.5%
- 0-0, per cent
- 5.0%
- Over 2.5 goals, per cent
- 57.5%
- Most likely score
- 1-1
A plain Poisson model, as in Chapter 16. The low-score correction in Chapter 17 is not applied. Cells under 0.05% are left blank. The result totals include scores up to 12. Fair odds have the margin already off. They are model output, not a selection.
